IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (59) Elpis / TYC 0011-00188-1 event on 2012 Sep 11, 04:43 UT Visible from SE Canada, Caribbean, Central America Summary ------- On 2012 Sep 11 UT, the 202 km diameter asteroid (59) Elpis will occult a 9.9 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a path across SE Canada, Caribbean, Central America. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.7 mag to 11.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 24.6 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 100 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Sep 11, 04:33 - 2012 Sep 11, 04:54 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456181.69722083 * magnitude of target star: 9.9 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.7 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 24.6 * Moon: 26 % sunlit, 96° distance * Sun: 156° distance * rough path description: SE Canada, Caribbean, Central America The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 240 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.15 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 4.0 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .034 +/- .025) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .034", .024", 81° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 8.2152 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 0011-00188-1 by 59 Elpis on 2012 Sep 11 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude -132 11 13 -14 0 0 4 54 42 9 86 -32 ... .. .. -126 56 19 ... .. .. -125 39 0 -127 21 15 -13 0 0 4 54 27 14 85 -37 -132 46 50 -123 17 7 -135 1 49 -122 12 25 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude -127 0 0 -12 54 46 4 54 26 14 85 -37 -11 47 48 -14 0 54 -11 27 33 -14 20 36 -126 0 0 -12 39 23 4 54 22 15 84 -38 -11 32 11 -13 45 45 -11 11 51 -14 5 30 -125 0 0 -12 23 4 4 54 17 16 84 -39 -11 15 38 -13 29 41 -10 55 13 -13 49 30 -124 0 0 -12 5 50 4 54 13 17 84 -40 -10 58 8 -13 12 42 -10 37 38 -13 32 36 -123 0 0 -11 47 41 4 54 8 18 84 -41 -10 39 41 -12 54 48 -10 19 7 -13 14 47 -122 0 0 -11 28 34 4 54 3 19 84 -42 -10 20 17 -12 35 59 - 9 59 37 -12 56 3 -121 0 0 -11 8 32 4 53 58 20 84 -43 - 9 59 56 -12 16 14 - 9 39 10 -12 36 23 -120 0 0 -10 47 32 4 53 52 21 84 -44 - 9 38 36 -11 55 33 - 9 17 45 -12 15 48 -119 0 0 -10 25 34 4 53 46 22 84 -45 - 9 16 18 -11 33 56 - 8 55 20 -11 54 16 -118 0 0 -10 2 39 4 53 40 23 84 -46 - 8 53 2 -11 11 21 - 8 31 57 -11 31 48 -117 0 0 - 9 38 46 4 53 33 24 84 -47 - 8 28 45 -10 47 50 - 8 7 34 -11 8 22 -116 0 0 - 9 13 53 4 53 26 25 83 -48 - 8 3 29 -10 23 20 - 7 42 11 -10 43 59 -115 0 0 - 8 48 1 4 53 19 26 83 -49 - 7 37 13 - 9 57 52 - 7 15 47 -10 18 38 -114 0 0 - 8 21 10 4 53 11 27 84 -50 - 7 9 56 - 9 31 25 - 6 48 22 - 9 52 18 -113 0 0 - 7 53 18 4 53 4 28 84 -51 - 6 41 37 - 9 3 59 - 6 19 55 - 9 25 0 -112 0 0 - 7 24 25 4 52 55 29 84 -52 - 6 12 17 - 8 35 33 - 5 50 26 - 8 56 42 -111 0 0 - 6 54 32 4 52 47 30 84 -53 - 5 41 55 - 8 6 6 - 5 19 55 - 8 27 23 -110 0 0 - 6 23 36 4 52 38 31 84 -54 - 5 10 29 - 7 35 39 - 4 48 20 - 7 57 5 -109 0 0 - 5 51 38 4 52 29 32 84 -55 - 4 38 0 - 7 4 11 - 4 15 42 - 7 25 45 -108 0 0 - 5 18 38 4 52 19 33 84 -56 - 4 4 28 - 6 31 41 - 3 41 59 - 6 53 24 -107 0 0 - 4 44 34 4 52 10 34 84 -57 - 3 29 51 - 5 58 9 - 3 7 12 - 6 20 2 -106 0 0 - 4 9 26 4 52 0 35 85 -58 - 2 54 9 - 5 23 35 - 2 31 19 - 5 45 37 -105 0 0 - 3 33 15 4 51 49 36 85 -59 - 2 17 22 - 4 47 57 - 1 54 21 - 5 10 9 -104 0 0 - 2 55 59 4 51 38 37 85 -60 - 1 39 29 - 4 11 16 - 1 16 16 - 4 33 38 -103 0 0 - 2 17 37 4 51 27 38 86 -61 - 1 0 29 - 3 33 31 - 0 37 5 - 3 56 3 -102 0 0 - 1 38 11 4 51 16 39 86 -62 - 0 20 23 - 2 54 41 0 3 13 - 3 17 25 -101 0 0 - 0 57 38 4 51 4 40 87 -62 0 20 50 - 2 14 47 0 44 38 - 2 37 42 -100 0 0 - 0 15 59 4 50 51 41 87 -63 1 3 10 - 1 33 48 1 27 12 - 1 56 54 - 99 0 0 0 26 46 4 50 39 42 88 -64 1 46 38 - 0 51 44 2 10 53 - 1 15 1 - 98 0 0 1 10 38 4 50 26 43 88 -65 2 31 15 - 0 8 34 2 55 44 - 0 32 4 - 97 0 0 1 55 37 4 50 13 44 89 -66 3 16 59 0 35 42 3 41 42 0 11 59 - 96 0 0 2 41 43 4 49 59 45 90 -66 4 3 52 1 21 3 4 28 50 0 57 8 - 95 0 0 3 28 56 4 49 45 46 91 -67 4 51 54 2 7 31 5 17 7 1 43 23 - 94 0 0 4 17 17 4 49 31 47 92 -68 5 41 5 2 55 5 6 6 34 2 30 43 - 93 0 0 5 6 45 4 49 16 47 93 -68 6 31 24 3 43 45 6 57 9 3 19 9 - 92 0 0 5 57 20 4 49 1 48 94 -68 7 22 52 4 33 30 7 48 54 4 8 40 - 91 0 0 6 49 2 4 48 46 49 95 -69 8 15 29 5 24 22 8 41 48 4 59 17 - 90 0 0 7 41 52 4 48 30 50 96 -69 9 9 14 6 16 19 9 35 50 5 50 59 - 89 0 0 8 35 48 4 48 14 51 97 -69 10 4 8 7 9 21 10 31 2 6 43 46 - 88 0 0 9 30 50 4 47 58 52 99 -69 11 0 9 8 3 28 11 27 21 7 37 37 - 87 0 0 10 26 57 4 47 42 52 100 -70 11 57 17 8 58 40 12 24 49 8 32 33 - 86 0 0 11 24 10 4 47 25 53 102 -69 12 55 32 9 54 55 13 23 23 9 28 31 - 85 0 0 12 22 27 4 47 8 54 104 -69 13 54 53 10 52 13 14 23 4 10 25 32 - 84 0 0 13 21 47 4 46 50 54 106 -69 14 55 18 11 50 33 15 23 50 11 23 35 - 83 0 0 14 22 10 4 46 33 55 107 -69 15 56 48 12 49 53 16 25 41 12 22 38 - 82 0 0 15 23 33 4 46 15 55 110 -68 16 59 20 13 50 14 17 28 35 13 22 40 - 81 0 0 16 25 57 4 45 57 56 112 -68 18 2 54 14 51 33 18 32 31 14 23 41 - 80 0 0 17 29 19 4 45 38 56 114 -67 19 7 28 15 53 49 19 37 28 15 25 38 - 79 0 0 18 33 37 4 45 20 57 116 -66 20 12 59 16 57 0 20 43 23 16 28 30 - 78 0 0 19 38 50 4 45 1 57 119 -65 21 19 28 18 1 5 21 50 16 17 32 16 - 77 0 0 20 44 56 4 44 42 57 121 -64 22 26 50 19 6 1 22 58 3 18 36 52 - 76 0 0 21 51 53 4 44 23 57 124 -64 23 35 5 20 11 47 24 6 42 19 42 18 - 75 0 0 22 59 37 4 44 4 57 126 -63 24 44 9 21 18 19 25 16 12 20 48 30 - 74 0 0 24 8 7 4 43 45 57 129 -61 25 53 59 22 25 36 26 26 29 21 55 27 - 73 0 0 25 17 19 4 43 26 57 131 -60 27 4 34 23 33 35 27 37 30 23 3 5 - 72 0 0 26 27 11 4 43 6 57 134 -59 28 15 49 24 42 12 28 49 12 24 11 21 - 71 0 0 27 37 39 4 42 47 57 136 -58 29 27 41 25 51 25 30 1 31 25 20 13 - 70 0 0 28 48 39 4 42 28 56 139 -57 30 40 6 27 1 9 31 14 24 26 29 36 - 69 0 0 30 0 8 4 42 9 56 141 -56 31 53 0 28 11 22 32 27 46 27 39 28 - 68 0 0 31 12 1 4 41 50 56 144 -54 33 6 19 29 21 59 33 41 33 28 49 43 - 67 0 0 32 24 14 4 41 31 55 146 -53 34 19 59 30 32 56 34 55 41 30 0 19 - 66 0 0 33 36 43 4 41 12 54 149 -52 35 33 53 31 44 9 36 10 4 31 11 12 - 65 0 0 34 49 22 4 40 53 54 151 -50 36 47 58 32 55 34 37 24 37 32 22 15 - 64 0 0 36 2 7 4 40 35 53 153 -49 38 2 8 34 7 5 38 39 15 33 33 26 - 63 0 0 37 14 53 4 40 17 52 155 -48 39 16 17 35 18 37 39 53 51 34 44 38 - 62 0 0 38 27 33 4 39 59 51 157 -46 40 30 20 36 30 7 41 8 21 35 55 48 - 61 0 0 39 40 3 4 39 41 51 159 -45 41 44 9 37 41 27 42 22 37 37 6 49 - 60 0 0 40 52 16 4 39 24 50 161 -44 42 57 40 38 52 33 43 36 33 38 17 37 - 59 0 0 42 4 7 4 39 7 49 163 -42 44 10 45 40 3 20 44 50 3 39 28 6 - 58 0 0 43 15 29 4 38 51 48 165 -41 45 23 18 41 13 41 46 3 0 40 38 11 - 57 0 0 44 26 17 4 38 35 47 166 -40 46 35 13 42 23 32 47 15 17 41 47 46 - 56 0 0 45 36 24 4 38 19 46 168 -38 47 46 22 43 32 46 48 26 47 42 56 45 - 55 0 0 46 45 45 4 38 4 45 170 -37 48 56 40 44 41 18 49 37 24 44 5 4 - 54 0 0 47 54 14 4 37 49 44 171 -36 50 6 0 45 49 3 50 47 1 45 12 37 - 53 0 0 49 1 44 4 37 35 43 173 -35 51 14 16 46 55 55 51 55 32 46 19 18 - 52 0 0 50 8 11 4 37 21 42 174 -33 52 21 21 48 1 49 53 2 50 47 25 3 - 51 0 0 51 13 29 4 37 8 41 175 -32 53 27 11 49 6 39 54 8 50 48 29 46 - 50 0 0 52 17 34 4 36 56 40 177 -31 54 31 39 50 10 23 55 13 27 49 33 24 - 49 0 0 53 20 19 4 36 43 39 178 -30 55 34 41 51 12 54 56 16 34 50 35 51 - 48 0 0 54 21 42 4 36 32 38 179 -29 56 36 13 52 14 9 57 18 9 51 37 4 - 47 0 0 55 21 39 4 36 21 37 180 -27 57 36 10 53 14 5 58 18 6 52 36 59 - 46 0 0 56 20 5 4 36 10 36 181 -26 58 34 29 54 12 37 59 16 22 53 35 33 - 45 0 0 57 16 59 4 36 0 35 183 -25 59 31 8 55 9 43 60 12 56 54 32 43 - 44 0 0 58 12 18 4 35 51 34 184 -24 60 26 4 56 5 22 61 7 43 55 28 26 - 43 0 0 59 6 0 4 35 41 33 185 -23 61 19 15 56 59 30 62 0 44 56 22 41 - 42 0 0 59 58 5 4 35 33 32 186 -22 62 10 41 57 52 6 62 51 57 57 15 26 - 41 0 0 60 48 30 4 35 25 31 187 -21 63 0 21 58 43 9 63 41 21 58 6 40 - 40 0 0 61 37 16 4 35 17 30 188 -20 63 48 15 59 32 39 64 28 58 58 56 21 - 39 0 0 62 24 22 4 35 10 29 189 -19 64 34 23 60 20 35 65 14 47 59 44 31 - 38 0 0 63 9 51 4 35 3 29 190 -18 65 18 48 61 6 58 65 58 50 60 31 8 - 37 0 0 63 53 41 4 34 56 28 191 -18 66 1 29 61 51 47 66 41 8 61 16 13 - 36 0 0 64 35 55 4 34 50 27 192 -17 66 42 30 62 35 4 67 21 44 61 59 48 - 35 0 0 65 16 34 4 34 45 26 193 -16 67 21 52 63 16 50 68 0 40 62 41 52 - 34 0 0 65 55 41 4 34 39 25 194 -15 67 59 37 63 57 6 68 37 59 63 22 28 - 33 0 0 66 33 16 4 34 34 25 195 -14 68 35 48 64 35 55 69 13 42 64 1 36 - 32 0 0 67 9 23 4 34 29 24 196 -14 69 10 28 65 13 17 69 47 54 64 39 19 - 31 0 0 67 44 3 4 34 25 23 197 -13 69 43 40 65 49 15 70 20 37 65 15 39 - 30 0 0 68 17 20 4 34 21 23 198 -12 70 15 27 66 23 51 70 51 54 65 50 37 - 29 0 0 68 49 17 4 34 17 22 199 -12 70 45 52 66 57 7 71 21 49 66 24 15 - 28 0 0 69 19 54 4 34 13 22 200 -11 71 14 58 67 29 7 71 50 25 66 56 37 - 27 0 0 69 49 17 4 34 10 21 201 -11 71 42 49 67 59 51 72 17 45 67 27 44 - 26 0 0 70 17 26 4 34 6 20 202 -10 72 9 26 68 29 22 72 43 53 67 57 39 - 25 0 0 70 44 26 4 34 3 20 203 -9 72 34 54 68 57 44 73 8 51 68 26 24 - 24 0 0 71 10 18 4 34 0 19 204 -9 72 59 15 69 24 58 73 32 43 68 54 1 - 23 0 0 71 35 6 4 33 58 19 205 -8 73 22 32 69 51 8 73 55 31 69 20 33 - 22 0 0 71 58 52 4 33 55 18 206 -8 73 44 49 70 16 14 74 17 18 69 46 2 - 21 0 0 72 21 38 4 33 53 18 207 -7 74 6 7 70 40 20 74 38 8 70 10 31 - 20 0 0 72 43 28 4 33 50 17 208 -7 74 26 30 71 3 29 74 58 3 70 34 2 - 19 0 0 73 4 23 4 33 48 17 209 -6 74 45 59 71 25 42 75 17 5 70 56 36 - 18 0 0 73 24 26 4 33 46 17 210 -6 75 4 38 71 47 1 75 35 18 71 18 17 - 17 0 0 73 43 39 4 33 44 16 211 -6 75 22 29 72 7 29 75 52 42 71 39 7 - 16 0 0 74 2 4 4 33 42 16 212 -5 75 39 34 72 27 8 76 9 22 71 59 7 - 15 0 0 74 19 43 4 33 41 15 213 -5 75 55 55 72 45 59 76 25 18 72 18 19 - 14 0 0 74 36 39 4 33 39 15 214 -4 76 11 34 73 4 6 76 40 32 72 36 45 - 13 0 0 74 52 53 4 33 37 15 215 -4 76 26 33 73 21 29 76 55 8 72 54 28 - 12 0 0 75 8 27 4 33 36 14 216 -4 76 40 54 73 38 10 77 9 6 73 11 29 - 11 0 0 75 23 22 4 33 35 14 217 -3 76 54 39 73 54 11 77 22 28 73 27 49 - 10 0 0 75 37 41 4 33 33 14 218 -3 77 7 49 74 9 34 77 35 17 73 43 30 - 9 0 0 75 51 25 4 33 32 13 219 -3 77 20 26 74 24 21 77 47 33 73 58 35 - 8 0 0 76 4 35 4 33 31 13 220 -2 77 32 31 74 38 32 77 59 17 74 13 3 - 7 0 0 76 17 13 4 33 30 13 221 -2 77 44 6 74 52 9 78 10 33 74 26 57 - 6 0 0 76 29 21 4 33 29 12 222 -2 77 55 12 75 5 14 78 21 20 74 40 19 - 5 0 0 76 40 58 4 33 28 12 223 -1 78 5 51 75 17 47 78 31 39 74 53 8 - 4 0 0 76 52 8 4 33 27 12 224 -1 78 16 3 75 29 51 78 41 33 75 5 27 - 3 0 0 77 2 50 4 33 26 11 225 -1 78 25 49 75 41 25 78 51 3 75 17 17 - 2 0 0 77 13 6 4 33 25 11 226 -1 78 35 12 75 52 32 79 0 8 75 28 39 - 1 0 0 77 22 58 4 33 24 11 227 0 78 44 11 76 3 13 79 8 51 75 39 34 0 0 0 77 32 25 4 33 23 11 228 0 78 52 47 76 13 28 79 17 12 75 50 2 Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs Prediction of 2012 Sep 8.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 0011-00188-1 * constellation : Cetus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 00 49 08.0429 DE: +01 55 03.946 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .022, .021 ) * V mag [mag]: 9.9 * B mag [mag]: 10.7 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (59) Elpis approx. diameter [km]: 202 approx. diameter ["]: .192 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.45200 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Sep 07 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1126 number of rejected observations: 115 time covered by the observations: 1900 Sep 20 - 2012 Sep 01 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.027, 0.013, 75° remarks: * orbital elements for (59) Elpis : Mean anomaly = 344.70776460 deg Arg. of pericenter = 211.91407613 deg Long. of node = 170.14643817 deg Inclination = 8.63395298 deg Eccentricity = 0.11753824 Semimajor axis = 2.71273353 AU Perihelion dist = 2.39388362 AU Mag: H = 7.93, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56181.19700000 TDT (2012 Sep 11.197) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Sep 11 59 Elpis 4h 44.0m UT 9.9 0 49 8.043 1 55 3.95TYC 0011-00188-1 10.7 11.3 202 24.6 1.452 -1.268 -20.70 -49.3293 1.924 108.15 4.41 4.7333 -0.39754 0.36319 -3.13588 -3.41567 -0.00215 -0.00061 2000 344.4437142012 910.00000211.914076170.146438 8.6339530.11753824 2.7127335 2.3938836 7.9 5.00.15 RATE 2.2059390 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.034 0.024 81 1.15 0.029 0 0-1-4 056178.0020120911_0188-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Sep 07, 22:44 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org