IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (451) Patientia / TYC 1358-02004-1 event on 2012 Sep 19, 21:24 UT Visible from China, India Summary ------- On 2012 Sep 19 UT, the 235 km diameter asteroid (451) Patientia will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across China, India. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.2 mag to 12.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.6 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 99 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Sep 19, 21:20 - 2012 Sep 19, 21:22 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456190.39170417 * magnitude of target star: 11.5 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.2 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 8.6 * Moon: 19 % sunlit, 120° distance * Sun: 69° distance * rough path description: China, India The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 239 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.19 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 1.7 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .023 +/- .020) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .023", .020", 89° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 27.2242 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 1358-02004-1 by 451 Patientia on 2012 Sep 19 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 58 0 0 7 31 41 21 20 13 0 68 -69 .. .. .. 8 42 0 .. .. .. 9 8 48 59 0 0 7 56 20 21 20 13 1 68 -68 6 46 17 9 6 41 6 19 43 9 33 29 60 0 0 8 21 1 21 20 13 2 68 -66 7 10 56 9 31 24 6 44 23 9 58 14 61 0 0 8 45 46 21 20 13 3 68 -65 7 35 39 9 56 10 7 9 5 10 23 0 62 0 0 9 10 32 21 20 14 4 68 -64 8 0 24 10 20 58 7 33 49 10 47 49 63 0 0 9 35 20 21 20 14 6 68 -63 8 25 11 10 45 47 7 58 36 11 12 38 64 0 0 10 0 9 21 20 15 7 69 -62 8 49 59 11 10 37 8 23 23 11 37 29 65 0 0 10 24 59 21 20 15 8 69 -61 9 14 47 11 35 27 8 48 11 12 2 19 66 0 0 10 49 47 21 20 16 9 69 -60 9 39 36 12 0 16 9 13 0 12 27 8 67 0 0 11 14 35 21 20 17 10 69 -59 10 4 24 12 25 5 9 37 47 12 51 57 68 0 0 11 39 22 21 20 17 11 69 -58 10 29 10 12 49 51 10 2 34 13 16 43 69 0 0 12 4 6 21 20 18 12 70 -57 10 53 54 13 14 35 10 27 18 13 41 27 70 0 0 12 28 47 21 20 19 13 70 -56 11 18 36 13 39 16 10 52 0 14 6 8 71 0 0 12 53 25 21 20 20 14 70 -55 11 43 15 14 3 53 11 16 39 14 30 45 72 0 0 13 17 59 21 20 21 15 70 -54 12 7 49 14 28 26 11 41 14 14 55 17 73 0 0 13 42 28 21 20 22 16 71 -53 12 32 20 14 52 54 12 5 45 15 19 45 74 0 0 14 6 53 21 20 24 17 71 -52 12 56 45 15 17 17 12 30 11 15 44 7 75 0 0 14 31 11 21 20 25 18 71 -50 13 21 5 15 41 34 12 54 31 16 8 23 76 0 0 14 55 23 21 20 26 19 71 -49 13 45 19 16 5 44 13 18 46 16 32 33 77 0 0 15 19 28 21 20 28 20 72 -48 14 9 26 16 29 47 13 42 54 16 56 35 78 0 0 15 43 25 21 20 30 21 72 -47 14 33 26 16 53 42 14 6 54 17 20 29 79 0 0 16 7 15 21 20 31 22 72 -46 14 57 18 17 17 29 14 30 47 17 44 15 80 0 0 16 30 55 21 20 33 23 73 -45 15 21 1 17 41 7 14 54 31 18 7 52 81 0 0 16 54 27 21 20 35 25 73 -44 15 44 36 18 4 35 15 18 7 18 31 19 82 0 0 17 17 49 21 20 36 26 73 -43 16 8 1 18 27 54 15 41 33 18 54 37 83 0 0 17 41 1 21 20 38 27 74 -42 16 31 16 18 51 2 16 4 49 19 17 44 84 0 0 18 4 2 21 20 40 28 74 -41 16 54 20 19 14 0 16 27 55 19 40 40 85 0 0 18 26 51 21 20 42 29 74 -40 17 17 14 19 36 46 16 50 50 20 3 24 86 0 0 18 49 29 21 20 44 30 75 -39 17 39 56 19 59 20 17 13 34 20 25 57 87 0 0 19 11 55 21 20 47 31 75 -38 18 2 26 20 21 42 17 36 5 20 48 17 88 0 0 19 34 9 21 20 49 32 75 -37 18 24 43 20 43 51 17 58 24 21 10 25 89 0 0 19 56 9 21 20 51 33 76 -36 18 46 48 21 5 47 18 20 31 21 32 19 90 0 0 20 17 56 21 20 53 34 76 -35 19 8 39 21 27 29 18 42 24 21 53 59 91 0 0 20 39 29 21 20 56 35 77 -34 19 30 17 21 48 57 19 4 3 22 15 26 92 0 0 21 0 47 21 20 58 36 77 -33 19 51 40 22 10 11 19 25 28 22 36 37 93 0 0 21 21 51 21 21 1 37 78 -32 20 12 49 22 31 10 19 46 39 22 57 34 94 0 0 21 42 40 21 21 3 38 78 -31 20 33 43 22 51 53 20 7 35 23 18 16 95 0 0 22 3 14 21 21 6 39 79 -30 20 54 22 23 12 21 20 28 16 23 38 42 96 0 0 22 23 31 21 21 8 40 79 -29 21 14 45 23 32 34 20 48 41 23 58 52 97 0 0 22 43 33 21 21 11 41 80 -28 21 34 52 23 52 30 21 8 50 24 18 46 98 0 0 23 3 18 21 21 14 42 80 -27 21 54 43 24 12 9 21 28 43 24 38 24 99 0 0 23 22 47 21 21 16 43 81 -26 22 14 17 24 31 32 21 48 19 24 57 44 100 0 0 23 41 58 21 21 19 44 81 -25 22 33 34 24 50 38 22 7 38 25 16 48 101 0 0 24 0 52 21 21 22 45 82 -24 22 52 34 25 9 26 22 26 40 25 35 34 102 0 0 24 19 28 21 21 25 45 82 -23 23 11 16 25 27 56 22 45 25 25 54 2 103 0 0 24 37 47 21 21 28 46 83 -22 23 29 40 25 46 9 23 3 51 26 12 12 104 0 0 24 55 48 21 21 31 47 84 -21 23 47 47 26 4 4 23 22 0 26 30 5 105 0 0 25 13 30 21 21 34 48 84 -20 24 5 35 26 21 40 23 39 51 26 47 39 106 0 0 25 30 54 21 21 37 49 85 -19 24 23 5 26 38 58 23 57 23 27 4 54 107 0 0 25 47 59 21 21 40 50 86 -18 24 40 16 26 55 57 24 14 36 27 21 50 108 0 0 26 4 45 21 21 43 51 86 -17 24 57 8 27 12 37 24 31 30 27 38 28 109 0 0 26 21 12 21 21 46 52 87 -16 25 13 41 27 28 57 24 48 6 27 54 47 110 0 0 26 37 20 21 21 49 53 88 -15 25 29 55 27 44 59 25 4 22 28 10 46 111 0 0 26 53 8 21 21 52 54 89 -15 25 45 49 28 0 41 25 20 18 28 26 26 112 0 0 27 8 36 21 21 55 55 89 -14 26 1 24 28 16 4 25 35 55 28 41 46 113 0 0 27 23 45 21 21 59 56 90 -13 26 16 39 28 31 7 25 51 12 28 56 46 114 0 0 27 38 34 21 22 2 57 91 -12 26 31 34 28 45 50 26 6 10 29 11 27 115 0 0 27 53 4 21 22 5 57 92 -11 26 46 9 29 0 13 26 20 47 29 25 48 116 0 0 28 7 13 21 22 8 58 93 -10 27 0 24 29 14 16 26 35 4 29 39 49 117 0 0 28 21 1 21 22 12 59 94 -9 27 14 18 29 27 59 26 49 1 29 53 29 118 0 0 28 34 30 21 22 15 60 95 -8 27 27 53 29 41 21 27 2 37 30 6 50 119 0 0 28 47 38 21 22 18 61 96 -7 27 41 6 29 54 24 27 15 53 30 19 50 120 0 0 29 0 26 21 22 21 62 97 -6 27 54 0 30 7 6 27 28 48 30 32 30 121 0 0 29 12 53 21 22 25 63 98 -5 28 6 32 30 19 27 27 41 23 30 44 49 122 0 0 29 24 59 21 22 28 63 99 -4 28 18 44 30 31 28 27 53 37 30 56 48 123 0 0 29 36 45 21 22 32 64 100 -4 28 30 35 30 43 9 28 5 30 31 8 26 124 0 0 29 48 10 21 22 35 65 101 -3 28 42 6 30 54 28 28 17 2 31 19 44 125 0 0 29 59 14 21 22 38 66 103 -2 28 53 15 31 5 27 28 28 14 31 30 41 126 0 0 30 9 58 21 22 42 67 104 -1 29 4 3 31 16 6 28 39 4 31 41 17 127 0 0 30 20 20 21 22 45 68 106 0 29 14 31 31 26 23 28 49 33 31 51 33 Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs Prediction of 2012 Jul 21.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 1358-02004-1 * constellation : Gemini * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 07 19 46.7013 DE: +22 09 19.456 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .021, .019 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.5 * B mag [mag]: 12.3 * Apparent position with proper motion RA(deg): 110.1367154204 DE(deg): 22.1297708748 * Equation of equinoxes (radians) : 0.000065359363933 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (451) Patientia approx. diameter [km]: 235 approx. diameter ["]: .106 distance from Earth [AU]: 3.04800 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Jul 21 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1664 number of rejected observations: 116 time covered by the observations: 1900 Jan 01 - 2012 Feb 02 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.009, 0.005, 82° remarks: * orbital elements for (451) Patientia : Mean anomaly = 19.09351004 deg Arg. of pericenter = 337.66036973 deg Long. of node = 89.25448460 deg Inclination = 15.23834074 deg Eccentricity = 0.07712649 Semimajor axis = 3.06258261 AU Perihelion dist = 2.82637638 AU Mag: H = 6.73, G = 0.19 Epoch of elements : MJD 56189.89200000 TDT (2012 Sep 19.892) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Sep 19 451 Patientia 21h 24.1m UT 11.5 7 19 46.701 22 9 19.46TYC 1358-02004-1 12.3 12.3 235 8.6 3.048 3.189 1.83 149.7487 22.155 -142.64 1.06 21.4009 -0.00852 0.17996 15.35305 0.63336 -0.00530 0.00073 2000 17.2744102012 910.00000337.660370 89.254485 15.2383410.07712649 3.0625826 2.8263764 6.7 5.00.19 RATE 1.8389610 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.023 0.020 89 1.19 0.020 0 0 3-4 056129.0020120919_2004-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Jul 22, 04:08 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org