IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (451) Patientia / TYC 1359-01771-2 event on 2012 Sep 23, 04:38 UT Visible from E Canada Summary ------- On 2012 Sep 23 UT, the 235 km diameter asteroid (451) Patientia will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across E Canada. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.4 mag to 10.6 mag (the combined magnitude of the asteroid and the other component of the double star) for at most 9.0 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: . The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 98 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Sep 23, 04:36 - 2012 Sep 23, 04:38 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456193.69360417 * magnitude of target star: 11.6 * magnitude drop [mag]: 0.4 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 9.0 * Moon: 54 % sunlit, 166° distance * Sun: 71° distance * rough path description: E Canada Additional comments ------------------- close double star The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 353 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.38 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 3.0 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .038 +/- .041) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .041", .038", 360° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 26.1009 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 1359-01771-2 by 451 Patientia on 2012 Sep 23 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 71 0 0 41 58 1 4 36 6 0 60 -48 .. .. .. 43 52 18 .. .. .. 45 22 49 - 70 0 0 42 24 31 4 36 6 1 61 -48 40 34 40 44 19 11 .. .. .. 45 50 2 - 69 0 0 42 51 9 4 36 6 2 61 -47 41 0 58 44 46 11 .. .. .. 46 17 22 - 68 0 0 43 17 55 4 36 6 3 62 -47 41 27 24 45 13 18 .. .. .. 46 44 48 - 67 0 0 43 44 46 4 36 7 4 63 -46 41 53 57 45 40 32 .. .. .. 47 12 20 - 66 0 0 44 11 43 4 36 7 5 63 -46 42 20 35 46 7 50 .. .. .. 47 39 56 - 65 0 0 44 38 44 4 36 7 6 64 -45 42 47 18 46 35 11 .. .. .. 48 7 36 - 64 0 0 45 5 49 4 36 8 6 65 -45 43 14 5 47 2 36 41 52 7 48 35 18 - 63 0 0 45 32 56 4 36 9 7 66 -44 43 40 56 47 30 3 42 18 46 49 3 1 - 62 0 0 46 0 5 4 36 9 8 66 -44 44 7 48 47 57 30 42 45 28 49 30 44 - 61 0 0 46 27 15 4 36 10 9 67 -43 44 34 42 48 24 57 43 12 11 49 58 27 - 60 0 0 46 54 24 4 36 11 10 68 -42 45 1 37 48 52 24 43 38 55 50 26 8 - 59 0 0 47 21 32 4 36 12 10 69 -42 45 28 30 49 19 48 44 5 39 50 53 46 - 58 0 0 47 48 38 4 36 13 11 69 -41 45 55 23 49 47 9 44 32 22 51 21 21 - 57 0 0 48 15 40 4 36 14 12 70 -41 46 22 13 50 14 26 44 59 3 51 48 51 - 56 0 0 48 42 39 4 36 15 13 71 -40 46 48 59 50 41 38 45 25 42 52 16 15 - 55 0 0 49 9 33 4 36 16 14 72 -39 47 15 42 51 8 45 45 52 17 52 43 32 - 54 0 0 49 36 20 4 36 18 14 73 -39 47 42 20 51 35 44 46 18 48 53 10 41 - 53 0 0 50 3 1 4 36 19 15 73 -38 48 8 52 52 2 36 46 45 13 53 37 42 - 52 0 0 50 29 35 4 36 20 16 74 -37 48 35 17 52 29 19 47 11 33 54 4 33 - 51 0 0 50 56 0 4 36 22 17 75 -37 49 1 34 52 55 52 47 37 45 54 31 14 - 50 0 0 51 22 16 4 36 23 17 76 -36 49 27 44 53 22 15 48 3 50 54 57 43 - 49 0 0 51 48 21 4 36 25 18 77 -35 49 53 44 53 48 27 48 29 47 55 24 0 - 48 0 0 52 14 16 4 36 26 19 78 -35 50 19 34 54 14 26 48 55 34 55 50 4 - 47 0 0 52 39 59 4 36 28 19 79 -34 50 45 14 54 40 13 49 21 11 56 15 55 - 46 0 0 53 5 29 4 36 29 20 80 -33 51 10 42 55 5 47 49 46 38 56 41 30 - 45 0 0 53 30 47 4 36 31 21 80 -33 51 35 58 55 31 6 50 11 53 57 6 51 - 44 0 0 53 55 50 4 36 33 21 81 -32 52 1 1 55 56 9 50 36 56 57 31 55 - 43 0 0 54 20 39 4 36 34 22 82 -31 52 25 51 56 20 58 51 1 46 57 56 42 - 42 0 0 54 45 13 4 36 36 23 83 -31 52 50 27 56 45 30 51 26 23 58 21 12 - 41 0 0 55 9 32 4 36 38 23 84 -30 53 14 48 57 9 45 51 50 46 58 45 25 - 40 0 0 55 33 34 4 36 40 24 85 -29 53 38 54 57 33 42 52 14 54 59 9 18 - 39 0 0 55 57 19 4 36 42 24 86 -29 54 2 43 57 57 22 52 38 48 59 32 53 - 38 0 0 56 20 47 4 36 43 25 87 -28 54 26 17 58 20 43 53 2 25 59 56 9 - 37 0 0 56 43 57 4 36 45 26 88 -27 54 49 34 58 43 45 53 25 47 60 19 4 - 36 0 0 57 6 48 4 36 47 26 89 -27 55 12 33 59 6 28 53 48 51 60 41 39 - 35 0 0 57 29 22 4 36 49 27 90 -26 55 35 15 59 28 51 54 11 39 61 3 54 - 34 0 0 57 51 36 4 36 51 27 91 -25 55 57 39 59 50 55 54 34 10 61 25 47 - 33 0 0 58 13 31 4 36 53 28 92 -25 56 19 44 60 12 37 54 56 22 61 47 19 - 32 0 0 58 35 6 4 36 55 28 93 -24 56 41 31 60 33 59 55 18 16 62 8 30 - 31 0 0 58 56 21 4 36 57 29 94 -24 57 2 58 60 55 0 55 39 52 62 29 19 - 30 0 0 59 17 16 4 36 59 29 96 -23 57 24 6 61 15 40 56 1 9 62 49 46 - 29 0 0 59 37 50 4 37 1 30 97 -22 57 44 55 61 35 59 56 22 7 63 9 51 - 28 0 0 59 58 4 4 37 3 30 98 -22 58 5 23 61 55 56 56 42 46 63 29 34 - 27 0 0 60 17 58 4 37 5 31 99 -21 58 25 32 62 15 32 57 3 5 63 48 54 - 26 0 0 60 37 30 4 37 7 31 100 -20 58 45 20 62 34 46 57 23 4 64 7 52 - 25 0 0 60 56 41 4 37 9 32 101 -20 59 4 48 62 53 38 57 42 44 64 26 28 - 24 0 0 61 15 32 4 37 11 32 102 -19 59 23 56 63 12 9 58 2 3 64 44 42 - 23 0 0 61 34 1 4 37 13 32 103 -19 59 42 43 63 30 18 58 21 2 65 2 33 - 22 0 0 61 52 9 4 37 15 33 105 -18 60 1 10 63 48 5 58 39 42 65 20 2 - 21 0 0 62 9 56 4 37 16 33 106 -18 60 19 16 64 5 30 58 58 0 65 37 9 - 20 0 0 62 27 21 4 37 18 33 107 -17 60 37 1 64 22 34 59 15 59 65 53 53 - 19 0 0 62 44 26 4 37 20 34 108 -17 60 54 25 64 39 16 59 33 37 66 10 16 - 18 0 0 63 1 10 4 37 22 34 109 -16 61 11 29 64 55 36 59 50 55 66 26 17 - 17 0 0 63 17 32 4 37 24 35 110 -15 61 28 12 65 11 36 60 7 52 66 41 56 - 16 0 0 63 33 34 4 37 26 35 112 -15 61 44 35 65 27 14 60 24 30 66 57 13 - 15 0 0 63 49 15 4 37 28 35 113 -14 62 0 37 65 42 31 60 40 46 67 12 10 - 14 0 0 64 4 35 4 37 30 35 114 -14 62 16 19 65 57 27 60 56 43 67 26 45 - 13 0 0 64 19 35 4 37 32 36 115 -13 62 31 41 66 12 2 61 12 19 67 40 59 - 12 0 0 64 34 14 4 37 34 36 116 -13 62 46 42 66 26 16 61 27 36 67 54 53 - 11 0 0 64 48 34 4 37 36 36 118 -12 63 1 23 66 40 11 61 42 32 68 8 26 - 10 0 0 65 2 33 4 37 38 37 119 -12 63 15 44 66 53 45 61 57 9 68 21 39 - 9 0 0 65 16 12 4 37 39 37 120 -11 63 29 46 67 6 59 62 11 26 68 34 32 - 8 0 0 65 29 31 4 37 41 37 121 -11 63 43 28 67 19 54 62 25 23 68 47 5 - 7 0 0 65 42 31 4 37 43 37 122 -11 63 56 50 67 32 29 62 39 0 68 59 19 - 6 0 0 65 55 12 4 37 45 38 124 -10 64 9 53 67 44 44 62 52 19 69 11 13 - 5 0 0 66 7 34 4 37 47 38 125 -10 64 22 37 67 56 41 63 5 18 69 22 49 - 4 0 0 66 19 36 4 37 49 38 126 -9 64 35 1 68 8 19 63 17 58 69 34 6 - 3 0 0 66 31 20 4 37 50 38 127 -9 64 47 7 68 19 38 63 30 19 69 45 4 - 2 0 0 66 42 46 4 37 52 38 129 -8 64 58 55 68 30 39 63 42 22 69 55 44 - 1 0 0 66 53 53 4 37 54 39 130 -8 65 10 24 68 41 22 63 54 6 70 6 7 0 0 0 67 4 42 4 37 56 39 131 -7 65 21 35 68 51 47 64 5 32 70 16 11 1 0 0 67 15 14 4 37 57 39 132 -7 65 32 27 69 1 55 64 16 39 70 25 59 2 0 0 67 25 28 4 37 59 39 134 -7 65 43 2 69 11 45 64 27 29 70 35 29 3 0 0 67 35 24 4 38 1 39 135 -6 65 53 19 69 21 18 64 38 1 70 44 43 4 0 0 67 45 3 4 38 3 39 136 -6 66 3 19 69 30 35 64 48 15 70 53 40 5 0 0 67 54 25 4 38 4 40 137 -5 66 13 2 69 39 34 64 58 12 71 2 20 6 0 0 68 3 31 4 38 6 40 139 -5 66 22 27 69 48 17 65 7 51 71 10 45 7 0 0 68 12 20 4 38 8 40 140 -4 66 31 36 69 56 44 65 17 14 71 18 53 8 0 0 68 20 52 4 38 9 40 141 -4 66 40 28 70 4 56 65 26 19 71 26 46 9 0 0 68 29 9 4 38 11 40 142 -4 66 49 3 70 12 51 65 35 8 71 34 24 10 0 0 68 37 9 4 38 12 40 144 -3 66 57 22 70 20 31 65 43 40 71 41 47 11 0 0 68 44 54 4 38 14 40 145 -3 67 5 26 70 27 56 65 51 56 71 48 55 12 0 0 68 52 24 4 38 16 40 146 -3 67 13 13 70 35 5 65 59 56 71 55 48 13 0 0 68 59 38 4 38 17 41 147 -2 67 20 44 70 42 0 66 7 39 72 2 26 14 0 0 69 6 37 4 38 19 41 149 -2 67 28 0 70 48 40 66 15 7 72 8 51 15 0 0 69 13 21 4 38 20 41 150 -1 67 35 1 70 55 6 66 22 19 72 15 1 16 0 0 69 19 50 4 38 22 41 151 -1 67 41 46 71 1 17 66 29 16 72 20 57 17 0 0 69 26 4 4 38 24 41 152 -1 67 48 16 71 7 15 66 35 57 72 26 40 18 0 0 69 32 5 4 38 25 41 154 0 67 54 32 71 12 58 66 42 23 72 32 10 19 0 0 69 37 51 4 38 27 41 155 0 68 0 32 71 18 28 66 48 34 72 37 26 Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs Prediction of 2012 Aug 7.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 1359-01771-2 * constellation : Gemini * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 07 23 55.9557 DE: +22 11 46.229 * position source: Pos: PPMXL, pm: PPMXL, pi: * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .037, .040 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.6 * B mag [mag]: 11.9 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (451) Patientia approx. diameter [km]: 235 approx. diameter ["]: .108 distance from Earth [AU]: 3.00600 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Aug 06 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1664 number of rejected observations: 116 time covered by the observations: 1900 Jan 01 - 2012 Feb 02 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.010, 0.005, 82° remarks: * orbital elements for (451) Patientia : Mean anomaly = 19.70745372 deg Arg. of pericenter = 337.65318696 deg Long. of node = 89.25448642 deg Inclination = 15.23843808 deg Eccentricity = 0.07711366 Semimajor axis = 3.06253203 AU Perihelion dist = 2.82636898 AU Mag: H = 6.73, G = 0.19 Epoch of elements : MJD 56193.19400000 TDT (2012 Sep 23.194) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Sep 23 451 Patientia 4h 38.8m UT 11.6 7 23 55.956 22 11 46.23TYC 1359-01771-2 11.9 12.2 235 9.0 3.006 3.100 1.93 38.8480 22.196 108.39 -0.23 4.6465 -0.03549 0.74500 14.71737 0.65821 -0.00536 0.00077 2000 19.1200762012 920.00000337.653187 89.254486 15.2384380.07711366 3.0625320 2.8263690 6.7 5.00.19 RATE 1.8390050 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.041 0.038 360 1.38 0.040 0 0-3-1 056146.0020120923_1771-2 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Aug 06, 20:46 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org