IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (44) Nysa / TYC 6263-00317-1 event on 2012 Oct 02, 20:54 UT Visible from Africa Summary ------- On 2012 Oct 02 UT, the 99 km diameter asteroid (44) Nysa will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across Africa. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.0 mag to 12.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.9 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 84 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Oct 02, 20:55 - 2012 Oct 02, 20:59 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456203.3712375 * magnitude of target star: 11.7 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.0 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.9 * Moon: 93 % sunlit, 129° distance * Sun: 82° distance * rough path description: Africa The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 100 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.61 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.8 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .031 +/- .030) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .031", .030", 90° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 20.3634 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 6263-00317-1 by 44 Nysa on 2012 Oct 2 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 45 0 0 -13 44 35 20 55 19 78 224 -1 -14 11 43 -13 17 24 -14 44 48 -12 44 12 - 44 0 0 -13 44 35 20 55 24 77 227 -2 -14 11 44 -13 17 25 -14 44 48 -12 44 13 - 43 0 0 -13 44 11 20 55 29 76 230 -3 -14 11 20 -13 17 0 -14 44 24 -12 43 48 - 42 0 0 -13 43 22 20 55 35 76 232 -4 -14 10 31 -13 16 11 -14 43 35 -12 42 59 - 41 0 0 -13 42 8 20 55 40 75 234 -5 -14 9 17 -13 14 57 -14 42 22 -12 41 44 - 40 0 0 -13 40 29 20 55 45 74 236 -6 -14 7 39 -13 13 18 -14 40 44 -12 40 5 - 39 0 0 -13 38 26 20 55 50 73 237 -7 -14 5 35 -13 11 14 -14 38 41 -12 38 0 - 38 0 0 -13 35 57 20 55 56 72 238 -8 -14 3 8 -13 8 45 -14 36 14 -12 35 31 - 37 0 0 -13 33 4 20 56 1 71 240 -8 -14 0 15 -13 5 52 -14 33 22 -12 32 37 - 36 0 0 -13 29 47 20 56 6 70 241 -9 -13 56 58 -13 2 33 -14 30 6 -12 29 17 - 35 0 0 -13 26 4 20 56 11 70 242 -10 -13 53 16 -12 58 50 -14 26 25 -12 25 33 - 34 0 0 -13 21 57 20 56 16 69 242 -11 -13 49 10 -12 54 42 -14 22 19 -12 21 25 - 33 0 0 -13 17 25 20 56 22 68 243 -12 -13 44 39 -12 50 10 -14 17 50 -12 16 51 - 32 0 0 -13 12 29 20 56 27 67 244 -13 -13 39 44 -12 45 12 -14 12 55 -12 11 53 - 31 0 0 -13 7 8 20 56 32 66 244 -14 -13 34 24 -12 39 50 -14 7 37 -12 6 29 - 30 0 0 -13 1 23 20 56 37 65 245 -15 -13 28 40 -12 34 4 -14 1 54 -12 0 42 - 29 0 0 -12 55 13 20 56 42 64 245 -16 -13 22 31 -12 27 53 -13 55 46 -11 54 29 - 28 0 0 -12 48 39 20 56 47 63 246 -17 -13 15 58 -12 21 17 -13 49 15 -11 47 52 - 27 0 0 -12 41 40 20 56 52 62 246 -18 -13 9 0 -12 14 18 -13 42 19 -11 40 51 - 26 0 0 -12 34 17 20 56 57 61 246 -19 -13 1 39 -12 6 53 -13 34 59 -11 33 25 - 25 0 0 -12 26 30 20 57 1 60 247 -20 -12 53 53 -11 59 5 -13 27 15 -11 25 34 - 24 0 0 -12 18 19 20 57 6 59 247 -21 -12 45 43 -11 50 52 -13 19 7 -11 17 20 - 23 0 0 -12 9 43 20 57 11 58 247 -22 -12 37 10 -11 42 15 -13 10 36 -11 8 41 - 22 0 0 -12 0 44 20 57 16 57 247 -23 -12 28 12 -11 33 14 -13 1 40 -10 59 38 - 21 0 0 -11 51 21 20 57 20 56 248 -25 -12 18 50 -11 23 49 -12 52 20 -10 50 11 - 20 0 0 -11 41 34 20 57 25 55 248 -26 -12 9 5 -11 14 0 -12 42 37 -10 40 20 - 19 0 0 -11 31 23 20 57 30 54 248 -27 -11 58 56 -11 3 47 -12 32 30 -10 30 5 - 18 0 0 -11 20 48 20 57 34 53 248 -28 -11 48 23 -10 53 11 -12 22 0 -10 19 26 - 17 0 0 -11 9 50 20 57 39 52 248 -29 -11 37 27 -10 42 11 -12 11 6 -10 8 24 - 16 0 0 -10 58 29 20 57 43 51 248 -30 -11 26 8 -10 30 48 -11 59 49 - 9 56 58 - 15 0 0 -10 46 44 20 57 47 50 248 -31 -11 14 25 -10 19 1 -11 48 9 - 9 45 9 - 14 0 0 -10 34 36 20 57 52 49 248 -32 -11 2 19 -10 6 51 -11 36 6 - 9 32 57 - 13 0 0 -10 22 6 20 57 56 48 248 -33 -10 49 51 - 9 54 18 -11 23 39 - 9 20 21 - 12 0 0 -10 9 12 20 58 0 47 248 -34 -10 36 59 - 9 41 23 -11 10 50 - 9 7 23 - 11 0 0 - 9 55 56 20 58 4 46 248 -35 -10 23 45 - 9 28 4 -10 57 39 - 8 54 2 - 10 0 0 - 9 42 17 20 58 8 45 248 -36 -10 10 8 - 9 14 23 -10 44 5 - 8 40 18 - 9 0 0 - 9 28 15 20 58 12 44 248 -37 - 9 56 9 - 9 0 19 -10 30 9 - 8 26 12 - 8 0 0 - 9 13 52 20 58 16 43 248 -38 - 9 41 48 - 8 45 54 -10 15 50 - 8 11 43 - 7 0 0 - 8 59 7 20 58 20 42 248 -39 - 9 27 5 - 8 31 6 -10 1 10 - 7 56 53 - 6 0 0 - 8 44 0 20 58 24 41 248 -40 - 9 12 0 - 8 15 57 - 9 46 8 - 7 41 40 - 5 0 0 - 8 28 31 20 58 28 40 248 -41 - 8 56 34 - 8 0 25 - 9 30 45 - 7 26 6 - 4 0 0 - 8 12 41 20 58 31 39 248 -42 - 8 40 46 - 7 44 33 - 9 15 0 - 7 10 11 - 3 0 0 - 7 56 29 20 58 35 38 248 -43 - 8 24 37 - 7 28 19 - 8 58 54 - 6 53 54 - 2 0 0 - 7 39 57 20 58 39 37 248 -44 - 8 8 8 - 7 11 45 - 8 42 27 - 6 37 17 - 1 0 0 - 7 23 5 20 58 42 36 248 -45 - 7 51 18 - 6 54 50 - 8 25 40 - 6 20 19 0 0 0 - 7 5 52 20 58 45 35 248 -46 - 7 34 7 - 6 37 34 - 8 8 32 - 6 3 0 1 0 0 - 6 48 19 20 58 49 34 248 -47 - 7 16 36 - 6 19 59 - 7 51 5 - 5 45 22 2 0 0 - 6 30 26 20 58 52 33 248 -48 - 6 58 46 - 6 2 4 - 7 33 17 - 5 27 24 3 0 0 - 6 12 14 20 58 55 32 248 -49 - 6 40 36 - 5 43 49 - 7 15 10 - 5 9 6 4 0 0 - 5 53 42 20 58 58 31 248 -50 - 6 22 7 - 5 25 15 - 6 56 44 - 4 50 29 5 0 0 - 5 34 52 20 59 1 30 248 -51 - 6 3 19 - 5 6 22 - 6 37 59 - 4 31 33 6 0 0 - 5 15 43 20 59 4 29 248 -52 - 5 44 13 - 4 47 11 - 6 18 56 - 4 12 19 7 0 0 - 4 56 16 20 59 7 28 247 -53 - 5 24 48 - 4 27 42 - 5 59 34 - 3 52 47 8 0 0 - 4 36 31 20 59 9 27 247 -54 - 5 5 6 - 4 7 55 - 5 39 55 - 3 32 57 9 0 0 - 4 16 29 20 59 12 26 247 -56 - 4 45 6 - 3 47 50 - 5 19 58 - 3 12 49 10 0 0 - 3 56 10 20 59 14 25 247 -57 - 4 24 49 - 3 27 29 - 4 59 44 - 2 52 25 11 0 0 - 3 35 34 20 59 17 23 247 -58 - 4 4 16 - 3 6 51 - 4 39 13 - 2 31 44 12 0 0 - 3 14 42 20 59 19 22 247 -59 - 3 43 26 - 2 45 56 - 4 18 26 - 2 10 47 13 0 0 - 2 53 35 20 59 21 21 247 -60 - 3 22 21 - 2 24 46 - 3 57 24 - 1 49 35 14 0 0 - 2 32 12 20 59 23 20 247 -61 - 3 1 0 - 2 3 21 - 3 36 5 - 1 28 7 15 0 0 - 2 10 34 20 59 25 19 247 -62 - 2 39 24 - 1 41 41 - 3 14 32 - 1 6 24 16 0 0 - 1 48 41 20 59 27 18 247 -63 - 2 17 34 - 1 19 47 - 2 52 45 - 0 44 27 17 0 0 - 1 26 35 20 59 29 17 247 -64 - 1 55 30 - 0 57 38 - 2 30 43 - 0 22 16 18 0 0 - 1 4 15 20 59 31 16 247 -65 - 1 33 12 - 0 35 16 - 2 8 28 0 0 9 19 0 0 - 0 41 42 20 59 32 15 247 -66 - 1 10 41 - 0 12 42 - 1 45 59 0 22 46 20 0 0 - 0 18 57 20 59 34 14 247 -67 - 0 47 58 0 10 6 - 1 23 18 0 45 35 21 0 0 0 4 0 20 59 35 13 247 -68 - 0 25 2 0 33 5 - 1 0 25 1 8 36 22 0 0 0 27 9 20 59 36 12 247 -69 - 0 1 56 0 56 15 - 0 37 20 1 31 49 23 0 0 0 50 28 20 59 37 11 247 -70 0 21 22 1 19 36 - 0 14 5 1 55 12 24 0 0 1 13 58 20 59 39 10 247 -71 0 44 50 1 43 8 0 9 21 2 18 46 25 0 0 1 37 38 20 59 39 8 247 -73 1 8 29 2 6 49 0 32 58 2 42 29 26 0 0 2 1 27 20 59 40 7 247 -74 1 32 16 2 30 39 0 56 43 3 6 21 27 0 0 2 25 24 20 59 41 6 247 -75 1 56 12 2 54 38 1 20 37 3 30 22 28 0 0 2 49 30 20 59 42 5 247 -76 2 20 16 3 18 45 1 44 40 3 54 31 29 0 0 3 13 43 20 59 42 4 247 -77 2 44 28 3 43 0 2 8 50 4 18 47 30 0 0 3 38 3 20 59 42 3 248 -78 3 8 47 4 7 21 2 33 8 4 43 9 31 0 0 4 2 29 20 59 43 2 248 -79 3 33 12 4 31 49 2 57 32 5 7 38 32 0 0 4 27 1 20 59 43 1 248 -80 3 57 43 4 56 22 3 22 1 5 32 13 Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs Prediction of 2012 Sep 27.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 6263-00317-1 * constellation : Sagittarius * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 18 06 03.5977 DE: -22 11 21.071 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .030, .030 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.7 * B mag [mag]: 11.6 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (44) Nysa approx. diameter [km]: 99 approx. diameter ["]: .050 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.74700 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Sep 07 source of used astrometry: FASTT TMO MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1754 number of rejected observations: 247 time covered by the observations: 1906 May 23 - 2012 Aug 29 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.007, 0.005, 93° remarks: * orbital elements for (44) Nysa : Mean anomaly = 176.24171684 deg Arg. of pericenter = 343.46975782 deg Long. of node = 131.56159211 deg Inclination = 3.70589366 deg Eccentricity = 0.14818635 Semimajor axis = 2.42348244 AU Perihelion dist = 2.06435541 AU Mag: H = 7.06, G = 0.46 Epoch of elements : MJD 56202.87100000 TDT (2012 Oct 02.871) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Oct 2 44 Nysa 20h 54.6m UT 11.7 18 6 3.598-22 11 21.07TYC 6263-00317-1 11.6 12.1 99 4.9 2.747 2.644 -2.35 -54.1058 -22.188 -136.37 -3.99 20.9097 0.01460 0.15261 11.47016 -0.73448 0.00565 0.00008 2000 175.4916892012 930.00000343.469758131.561592 3.7058940.14818635 2.4234824 2.0643554 7.0 5.00.46 RATE 2.6124280 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.031 0.030 90 1.61 0.030 0 0-3-1 056197.0020121002_0317-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Sep 07, 22:17 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org