IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (451) Patientia / UCAC2 39840611 event on 2012 Oct 14, 21:25 UT Visible from Russia, SW Asia Summary ------- On 2012 Oct 14 UT, the 235 km diameter asteroid (451) Patientia will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across Russia, SW Asia. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.9 mag to 12.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 12.9 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 99 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Oct 14, 21:20 - 2012 Oct 14, 21:26 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456215.39298333 * magnitude of target star: 11.8 * magnitude drop [mag]: 0.9 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 12.9 * Moon: 1 % sunlit, 79° distance * Sun: 87° distance * rough path description: Russia, SW Asia The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 273 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.17 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 3.6 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .036 +/- .020) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .036", .020", 90° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 18.2091 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC2 39840611 by 451 Patientia on 2012 Oct 14 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 34 0 0 22 15 9 21 20 53 0 66 -76 .. .. .. 23 37 38 .. .. .. 24 6 0 35 0 0 22 40 47 21 20 53 2 66 -76 21 19 25 24 3 26 20 52 1 24 31 51 36 0 0 23 6 36 21 20 53 3 67 -75 21 45 5 24 29 25 21 17 39 24 57 53 37 0 0 23 32 37 21 20 54 4 67 -75 22 10 57 24 55 34 21 43 28 25 24 5 38 0 0 23 58 47 21 20 54 5 67 -75 22 36 59 25 21 53 22 9 27 25 50 28 39 0 0 24 25 7 21 20 55 6 68 -74 23 3 11 25 48 21 22 35 36 26 16 59 40 0 0 24 51 35 21 20 55 7 68 -73 23 29 31 26 14 58 23 1 54 26 43 38 41 0 0 25 18 11 21 20 56 8 69 -73 23 55 59 26 41 42 23 28 20 27 10 25 42 0 0 25 44 54 21 20 57 9 69 -72 24 22 35 27 8 33 23 54 53 27 37 18 43 0 0 26 11 44 21 20 59 10 70 -71 24 49 18 27 35 30 24 21 33 28 4 18 44 0 0 26 38 39 21 21 0 11 70 -70 25 16 6 28 2 31 24 48 19 28 31 22 45 0 0 27 5 38 21 21 1 12 70 -70 25 43 0 28 29 38 25 15 11 28 58 31 46 0 0 27 32 42 21 21 3 13 71 -69 26 9 57 28 56 48 25 42 6 29 25 43 47 0 0 27 59 49 21 21 4 14 71 -68 26 36 59 29 24 0 26 9 6 29 52 58 48 0 0 28 26 58 21 21 6 15 72 -67 27 4 3 29 51 15 26 36 8 30 20 14 49 0 0 28 54 9 21 21 8 16 72 -66 27 31 9 30 18 31 27 3 13 30 47 32 50 0 0 29 21 21 21 21 10 17 73 -66 27 58 16 30 45 47 27 30 18 31 14 50 51 0 0 29 48 32 21 21 12 17 74 -65 28 25 23 31 13 3 27 57 25 31 42 7 52 0 0 30 15 43 21 21 14 18 74 -64 28 52 31 31 40 18 28 24 31 32 9 23 53 0 0 30 42 52 21 21 16 19 75 -63 29 19 37 32 7 30 28 51 36 32 36 37 54 0 0 31 9 59 21 21 19 20 75 -62 29 46 41 32 34 40 29 18 39 33 3 47 55 0 0 31 37 3 21 21 21 21 76 -61 30 13 42 33 1 46 29 45 39 33 30 54 56 0 0 32 4 3 21 21 24 22 77 -60 30 40 40 33 28 48 30 12 36 33 57 57 57 0 0 32 30 58 21 21 26 23 77 -59 31 7 33 33 55 44 30 39 29 34 24 54 58 0 0 32 57 47 21 21 29 24 78 -58 31 34 22 34 22 35 31 6 18 34 51 45 59 0 0 33 24 31 21 21 32 25 78 -57 32 1 5 34 49 19 31 33 0 35 18 29 60 0 0 33 51 7 21 21 35 26 79 -56 32 27 41 35 15 55 31 59 37 35 45 5 61 0 0 34 17 36 21 21 38 27 80 -56 32 54 10 35 42 23 32 26 6 36 11 33 62 0 0 34 43 56 21 21 41 28 81 -55 33 20 31 36 8 43 32 52 27 36 37 52 63 0 0 35 10 7 21 21 44 29 81 -54 33 46 44 36 34 53 33 18 40 37 4 2 64 0 0 35 36 9 21 21 47 30 82 -53 34 12 47 37 0 52 33 44 44 37 30 1 65 0 0 36 2 0 21 21 51 30 83 -52 34 38 41 37 26 41 34 10 38 37 55 49 66 0 0 36 27 40 21 21 54 31 84 -51 35 4 23 37 52 18 34 36 22 38 21 25 67 0 0 36 53 9 21 21 57 32 84 -50 35 29 55 38 17 44 35 1 54 38 46 49 68 0 0 37 18 25 21 22 1 33 85 -49 35 55 15 38 42 56 35 27 15 39 12 0 69 0 0 37 43 28 21 22 5 34 86 -48 36 20 22 39 7 55 35 52 24 39 36 58 70 0 0 38 8 18 21 22 8 35 87 -47 36 45 16 39 32 41 36 17 20 40 1 41 71 0 0 38 32 54 21 22 12 35 88 -47 37 9 57 39 57 11 36 42 2 40 26 11 72 0 0 38 57 15 21 22 16 36 89 -46 37 34 24 40 21 27 37 6 30 40 50 25 73 0 0 39 21 22 21 22 19 37 90 -45 37 58 36 40 45 28 37 30 44 41 14 23 74 0 0 39 45 13 21 22 23 38 91 -44 38 22 33 41 9 13 37 54 43 41 38 6 75 0 0 40 8 48 21 22 27 39 92 -43 38 46 14 41 32 41 38 18 27 42 1 32 76 0 0 40 32 7 21 22 31 39 93 -42 39 9 40 41 55 53 38 41 55 42 24 41 77 0 0 40 55 9 21 22 35 40 94 -41 39 32 49 42 18 48 39 5 6 42 47 33 78 0 0 41 17 54 21 22 39 41 95 -40 39 55 41 42 41 25 39 28 1 43 10 8 79 0 0 41 40 22 21 22 43 42 96 -40 40 18 17 43 3 45 39 50 39 43 32 24 80 0 0 42 2 31 21 22 47 42 97 -39 40 40 34 43 25 46 40 12 59 43 54 23 81 0 0 42 24 23 21 22 51 43 98 -38 41 2 34 43 47 29 40 35 2 44 16 2 82 0 0 42 45 56 21 22 55 44 99 -37 41 24 16 44 8 53 40 56 46 44 37 23 83 0 0 43 7 10 21 22 59 44 100 -36 41 45 39 44 29 58 41 18 12 44 58 25 84 0 0 43 28 6 21 23 3 45 101 -35 42 6 43 44 50 44 41 39 20 45 19 8 85 0 0 43 48 42 21 23 7 46 103 -35 42 27 29 45 11 10 42 0 8 45 39 31 86 0 0 44 8 59 21 23 11 46 104 -34 42 47 55 45 31 17 42 20 38 45 59 34 87 0 0 44 28 56 21 23 15 47 105 -33 43 8 2 45 51 4 42 40 48 46 19 17 88 0 0 44 48 33 21 23 19 47 106 -32 43 27 49 46 10 31 43 0 38 46 38 41 89 0 0 45 7 51 21 23 24 48 108 -31 43 47 17 46 29 38 43 20 9 46 57 44 90 0 0 45 26 48 21 23 28 49 109 -31 44 6 24 46 48 24 43 39 20 47 16 27 91 0 0 45 45 25 21 23 32 49 110 -30 44 25 12 47 6 50 43 58 11 47 34 49 92 0 0 46 3 42 21 23 36 50 112 -29 44 43 39 47 24 56 44 16 42 47 52 51 93 0 0 46 21 38 21 23 40 50 113 -28 45 1 46 47 42 42 44 34 52 48 10 33 94 0 0 46 39 14 21 23 45 51 114 -28 45 19 33 48 0 6 44 52 42 48 27 53 95 0 0 46 56 29 21 23 49 51 116 -27 45 36 59 48 17 10 45 10 12 48 44 54 96 0 0 47 13 24 21 23 53 52 117 -26 45 54 4 48 33 54 45 27 21 49 1 33 97 0 0 47 29 58 21 23 57 52 119 -25 46 10 49 48 50 17 45 44 9 49 17 52 98 0 0 47 46 11 21 24 1 53 120 -25 46 27 13 49 6 19 46 0 37 49 33 50 99 0 0 48 2 4 21 24 5 53 122 -24 46 43 17 49 22 0 46 16 44 49 49 28 100 0 0 48 17 36 21 24 10 54 123 -23 46 59 0 49 37 21 46 32 31 50 4 45 101 0 0 48 32 48 21 24 14 54 125 -22 47 14 22 49 52 21 46 47 57 50 19 41 102 0 0 48 47 39 21 24 18 54 126 -22 47 29 24 50 7 1 47 3 2 50 34 16 103 0 0 49 2 9 21 24 22 55 128 -21 47 44 5 50 21 20 47 17 47 50 48 32 104 0 0 49 16 19 21 24 26 55 130 -20 47 58 25 50 35 19 47 32 11 51 2 26 105 0 0 49 30 8 21 24 30 56 131 -20 48 12 25 50 48 57 47 46 14 51 16 1 106 0 0 49 43 37 21 24 34 56 133 -19 48 26 4 51 2 15 47 59 57 51 29 15 107 0 0 49 56 45 21 24 38 56 135 -18 48 39 23 51 15 12 48 13 19 51 42 8 108 0 0 50 9 33 21 24 43 57 136 -18 48 52 22 51 27 49 48 26 21 51 54 42 109 0 0 50 22 1 21 24 47 57 138 -17 49 4 59 51 40 6 48 39 2 52 6 55 110 0 0 50 34 8 21 24 51 57 140 -16 49 17 17 51 52 3 48 51 23 52 18 48 111 0 0 50 45 56 21 24 55 57 142 -16 49 29 14 52 3 41 49 3 24 52 30 22 112 0 0 50 57 23 21 24 59 58 143 -15 49 40 52 52 14 58 49 15 4 52 41 36 113 0 0 51 8 31 21 25 3 58 145 -14 49 52 9 52 25 55 49 26 24 52 52 30 114 0 0 51 19 18 21 25 7 58 147 -14 50 3 6 52 36 33 49 37 25 53 3 4 115 0 0 51 29 46 21 25 11 58 149 -13 50 13 43 52 46 51 49 48 5 53 13 19 116 0 0 51 39 54 21 25 15 58 151 -12 50 24 0 52 56 50 49 58 25 53 23 14 117 0 0 51 49 43 21 25 19 58 153 -12 50 33 58 53 6 29 50 8 25 53 32 50 118 0 0 51 59 12 21 25 23 59 154 -11 50 43 35 53 15 50 50 18 6 53 42 7 119 0 0 52 8 22 21 25 26 59 156 -10 50 52 54 53 24 50 50 27 27 53 51 5 120 0 0 52 17 12 21 25 30 59 158 -10 51 1 52 53 33 32 50 36 28 53 59 44 121 0 0 52 25 43 21 25 34 59 160 -9 51 10 32 53 41 55 50 45 10 54 8 4 122 0 0 52 33 55 21 25 38 59 162 -9 51 18 51 53 49 59 50 53 33 54 16 5 123 0 0 52 41 49 21 25 42 59 164 -8 51 26 52 53 57 45 51 1 36 54 23 48 124 0 0 52 49 23 21 25 46 59 166 -7 51 34 34 54 5 11 51 9 20 54 31 12 125 0 0 52 56 38 21 25 50 59 167 -7 51 41 56 54 12 19 51 16 45 54 38 17 126 0 0 53 3 35 21 25 53 59 169 -6 51 48 59 54 19 9 51 23 50 54 45 5 127 0 0 53 10 13 21 25 57 59 171 -6 51 55 44 54 25 40 51 30 37 54 51 33 128 0 0 53 16 32 21 26 1 59 173 -5 52 2 10 54 31 53 51 37 5 54 57 44 129 0 0 53 22 33 21 26 5 59 175 -4 52 8 16 54 37 48 51 43 14 55 3 37 130 0 0 53 28 16 21 26 9 59 177 -4 52 14 5 54 43 24 51 49 4 55 9 11 131 0 0 53 33 40 21 26 12 59 179 -3 52 19 34 54 48 43 51 54 35 55 14 28 132 0 0 53 38 46 21 26 16 59 180 -3 52 24 45 54 53 43 51 59 48 55 19 27 133 0 0 53 43 34 21 26 20 59 182 -2 52 29 38 54 58 26 52 4 42 55 24 8 134 0 0 53 48 3 21 26 23 59 184 -2 52 34 12 55 2 51 52 9 18 55 28 31 135 0 0 53 52 15 21 26 27 59 186 -1 52 38 28 55 6 58 52 13 35 55 32 36 136 0 0 53 56 8 21 26 31 58 188 0 52 42 26 55 10 48 52 17 34 55 36 24 Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs Prediction of 2012 Jul 10.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC2 39840611 * constellation : Gemini * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 07 47 54.8564 DE: +22 35 18.335 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .034, .019 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.8 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Apparent position with proper motion RA(deg): 117.1722597901 DE(deg): 22.5541603365 * Equation of equinoxes (radians) : 0.000059944536481 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (451) Patientia approx. diameter [km]: 235 approx. diameter ["]: .119 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.72300 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Jul 10 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1664 number of rejected observations: 116 time covered by the observations: 1900 Jan 01 - 2012 Feb 02 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.011, 0.006, 85° remarks: * orbital elements for (451) Patientia : Mean anomaly = 23.74209293 deg Arg. of pericenter = 337.60667697 deg Long. of node = 89.25459568 deg Inclination = 15.23901142 deg Eccentricity = 0.07703075 Semimajor axis = 3.06220176 AU Perihelion dist = 2.82631807 AU Mag: H = 6.73, G = 0.19 Epoch of elements : MJD 56214.89300000 TDT (2012 Oct 14.893) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Oct 14 451 Patientia 21h 25.9m UT 11.8 7 47 54.856 22 35 18.33UCAC2 39840611 0.0 12.1 235 12.9 2.723 2.380 3.91 131.6792 22.588 -145.02 -8.55 21.4316 -0.06088 0.50506 10.20623 1.20994 -0.00573 0.00106 2000 22.84212220121010.00000337.606677 89.254596 15.2390110.07703075 3.0622018 2.8263181 6.7 5.00.19 RATE 1.8393030 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.036 0.020 90 1.17 0.020 0 0 4 5 056118.0020121014_840611 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Aug 26, 04:10 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org