IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (194) Prokne / UCAC2 31634154 event on 2012 Oct 21, 07:49 UT Visible from Canada, USA, Caribbean, Colombia, Peru, Chile Summary ------- On 2012 Oct 21 UT, the 167 km diameter asteroid (194) Prokne will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path across Canada, USA, Caribbean, Colombia, Peru, Chile. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.0 mag to 12.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 21.3 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 65 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Oct 21, 07:36 - 2012 Oct 21, 08:02 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456221.8261625 * magnitude of target star: 12.0 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.0 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 21.3 * Moon: 41 % sunlit, 155° distance * Sun: 114° distance * rough path description: Canada, USA, Caribbean, Colombia, Peru, Chile The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 173 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.93 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 19.8 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .103 +/- .102) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .103", .102", 90° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 7.8414 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC2 31634154 by 194 Prokne on 2012 Oct 21 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude -124 46 12 66 56 6 7 36 42 7 107 -34 -120 42 38 67 9 41 -129 58 59 66 43 4 -114 31 46 67 35 54 ... .. .. .. .. .. -108 52 45 63 30 46 7 37 2 14 121 -37 -106 34 48 63 43 14 -111 17 47 63 18 27 -102 32 30 64 6 48 -116 13 41 62 55 59 -101 6 1 60 29 26 7 37 22 19 128 -39 - 99 14 37 60 40 51 -103 0 27 60 18 8 - 95 54 2 61 2 19 -106 43 22 59 57 23 - 96 1 14 57 44 13 7 37 42 23 132 -40 - 94 23 48 57 54 48 - 97 40 28 57 33 43 - 91 26 34 58 14 40 -100 50 47 57 14 23 - 92 20 6 55 11 1 7 38 2 26 135 -41 - 90 51 45 55 20 57 - 93 49 41 55 1 10 - 88 10 12 55 39 33 - 96 40 8 54 42 58 - 89 29 48 52 47 14 7 38 22 29 137 -42 - 88 8 2 52 56 37 - 90 52 30 52 37 54 - 85 38 2 53 14 13 - 93 29 7 52 20 39 - 87 13 24 50 31 4 7 38 42 32 139 -43 - 85 56 41 50 40 1 - 88 30 50 50 22 10 - 83 35 39 50 56 46 - 90 57 5 50 5 42 - 85 21 2 48 21 14 7 39 2 34 140 -43 - 84 8 22 48 29 49 - 86 34 18 48 12 42 - 81 54 35 48 45 51 - 88 52 22 47 56 55 - 83 46 30 46 16 45 7 39 22 36 141 -44 - 82 37 10 46 25 0 - 84 56 20 46 8 31 - 80 29 22 46 40 26 - 87 7 45 45 53 18 - 82 25 37 44 16 50 7 39 42 39 142 -44 - 81 19 5 44 24 48 - 83 32 35 44 8 53 - 79 16 21 44 39 43 - 85 38 28 43 54 10 - 81 15 31 42 20 54 7 40 2 41 142 -45 - 80 11 22 42 28 37 - 82 20 2 42 13 11 - 78 12 58 42 43 4 - 84 21 12 41 58 55 - 80 14 4 40 28 26 7 40 22 43 143 -45 - 79 12 0 40 35 57 - 81 16 29 40 20 56 - 77 17 22 40 49 59 - 83 13 37 40 7 3 - 79 19 45 38 39 2 7 40 42 45 143 -45 - 78 19 29 38 46 22 - 80 20 19 38 31 44 - 76 28 8 39 0 3 - 82 13 56 38 18 11 - 78 31 20 36 52 22 7 41 2 46 143 -45 - 77 32 40 36 59 31 - 79 30 17 36 45 14 - 75 44 13 37 12 53 - 81 20 48 36 31 59 - 77 47 55 35 8 8 7 41 22 48 143 -45 - 76 50 39 35 15 8 - 78 45 26 35 1 8 - 75 4 48 35 28 13 - 80 33 13 34 48 11 - 77 8 45 33 26 5 7 41 42 50 143 -45 - 76 12 45 33 32 57 - 78 4 59 33 19 13 - 74 29 12 33 45 46 - 79 50 21 33 6 31 - 76 33 15 31 45 59 7 42 2 52 142 -45 - 75 38 23 31 52 44 - 77 28 21 31 39 16 - 73 56 54 32 5 19 - 79 11 32 31 26 46 - 76 0 56 30 7 41 7 42 21 53 142 -45 - 75 7 5 30 14 19 - 76 55 1 30 1 3 - 73 27 28 30 26 41 - 78 36 16 29 48 47 - 75 31 26 28 30 58 7 42 41 55 141 -45 - 74 38 30 28 37 30 - 76 24 35 28 24 27 - 73 0 33 28 49 41 - 78 4 4 28 12 21 - 75 4 23 26 55 44 7 43 1 56 141 -45 - 74 12 17 27 2 10 - 75 56 42 26 49 18 - 72 35 51 27 14 10 - 77 34 37 26 37 22 - 74 39 32 25 21 48 7 43 21 58 140 -45 - 73 48 11 25 28 9 - 75 31 6 25 15 27 - 72 13 7 25 40 0 - 77 7 35 25 3 41 - 74 16 39 23 49 5 7 43 41 59 139 -45 - 73 25 58 23 55 22 - 75 7 32 23 42 49 - 71 52 9 24 7 4 - 76 42 43 23 31 10 - 73 55 32 22 17 27 7 44 1 61 138 -45 - 73 5 27 22 23 40 - 74 45 47 22 11 15 - 71 32 46 22 35 14 - 76 19 49 21 59 44 - 73 36 0 20 46 49 7 44 21 62 137 -44 - 72 46 29 20 52 58 - 74 25 41 20 40 41 - 71 14 49 21 4 25 - 75 58 40 20 29 17 - 73 17 54 19 17 5 7 44 41 63 135 -44 - 72 28 53 19 23 10 - 74 7 6 19 11 0 - 70 58 9 19 34 31 - 75 39 7 18 59 42 - 73 1 8 17 48 9 7 45 1 65 134 -44 - 72 12 34 17 54 12 - 73 49 52 17 42 7 - 70 42 39 18 5 27 - 75 21 2 17 30 56 - 72 45 34 16 19 58 7 45 21 66 132 -44 - 71 57 25 16 25 58 - 73 33 54 16 13 59 - 70 28 15 16 37 8 - 75 4 17 16 2 52 - 72 31 7 14 52 27 7 45 41 67 130 -43 - 71 43 19 14 58 24 - 73 19 5 14 46 30 - 70 14 50 15 9 29 - 74 48 47 14 35 28 - 72 17 41 13 25 31 7 46 1 68 128 -43 - 71 30 13 13 31 26 - 73 5 19 13 19 36 - 70 2 19 13 42 26 - 74 34 25 13 8 38 - 72 5 12 11 59 6 7 46 21 69 125 -43 - 71 18 1 12 4 59 - 72 52 33 11 53 14 - 69 50 39 12 15 56 - 74 21 6 11 42 19 - 71 53 36 10 33 10 7 46 41 70 122 -42 - 71 6 40 10 39 1 - 72 40 42 10 27 19 - 69 39 46 10 49 55 - 74 8 47 10 16 28 - 71 42 50 9 7 38 7 47 1 71 119 -42 - 70 56 6 9 13 27 - 72 29 43 9 1 48 - 69 29 36 9 24 18 - 73 57 23 8 51 0 - 71 32 49 7 42 26 7 47 21 72 116 -41 - 70 46 17 7 48 15 - 72 19 31 7 36 38 - 69 20 7 7 59 3 - 73 46 51 7 25 52 - 71 23 33 6 17 32 7 47 41 73 112 -41 - 70 37 9 6 23 20 - 72 10 6 6 11 45 - 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71 13 48 - 6 27 39 - 68 15 6 - 6 5 19 - 72 40 52 - 6 38 23 - 70 23 37 - 7 46 39 7 51 0 74 63 -36 - 69 37 7 - 7 40 51 - 71 10 18 - 7 52 27 - 68 11 3 - 7 30 3 - 72 37 39 - 8 3 13 - 70 20 27 - 9 11 42 7 51 20 74 58 -35 - 69 33 46 - 9 5 52 - 71 7 19 - 9 17 31 - 68 7 24 - 8 55 3 - 72 35 1 - 9 28 19 - 70 17 45 -10 37 4 7 51 40 73 54 -35 - 69 30 52 -10 31 13 - 71 4 50 -10 42 54 - 68 4 7 -10 20 21 - 72 32 56 -10 53 46 - 70 15 32 -12 2 49 7 52 0 72 50 -34 - 69 28 24 -11 56 57 - 71 2 51 -12 8 41 - 68 1 12 -11 46 1 - 72 31 26 -12 19 36 - 70 13 46 -13 29 0 7 52 20 71 46 -33 - 69 26 21 -13 23 6 - 71 1 22 -13 34 54 - 67 58 40 -13 12 7 - 72 30 29 -13 45 52 - 70 12 28 -14 55 41 7 52 40 70 43 -33 - 69 24 45 -14 49 45 - 71 0 24 -15 1 37 - 67 56 29 -14 38 42 - 72 30 7 -15 12 40 - 70 11 39 -16 22 56 7 53 0 69 40 -32 - 69 23 34 -16 16 57 - 70 59 56 -16 28 54 - 67 54 40 -16 5 49 - 72 30 20 -16 40 1 - 70 11 18 -17 50 48 7 53 20 68 38 -31 - 69 22 50 -17 44 47 - 70 59 59 -17 56 49 - 67 53 13 -17 33 34 - 72 31 10 -18 8 2 - 70 11 28 -19 19 22 7 53 40 67 36 -31 - 69 22 33 -19 13 18 - 71 0 36 -19 25 27 - 67 52 9 -19 2 0 - 72 32 37 -19 36 45 - 70 12 8 -20 48 44 7 54 0 66 33 -30 - 69 22 45 -20 42 36 - 71 1 45 -20 54 51 - 67 51 27 -20 31 12 - 72 34 43 -21 6 15 - 70 13 20 -22 18 56 7 54 20 65 32 -29 - 69 23 25 -22 12 45 - 71 3 30 -22 25 8 - 67 51 9 -22 1 14 - 72 37 31 -22 36 39 - 70 15 6 -23 50 6 7 54 40 63 30 -28 - 69 24 35 -23 43 50 - 71 5 52 -23 56 22 - 67 51 15 -23 32 12 - 72 41 2 -24 8 0 - 70 17 27 -25 22 18 7 55 0 62 28 -28 - 69 26 17 -25 15 58 - 71 8 54 -25 28 38 - 67 51 46 -25 4 12 - 72 45 19 -25 40 25 - 70 20 27 -26 55 40 7 55 20 61 27 -27 - 69 28 34 -26 49 15 - 71 12 37 -27 2 5 - 67 52 44 -26 37 19 - 72 50 26 -27 14 1 - 70 24 7 -28 30 17 7 55 40 59 26 -26 - 69 31 26 -28 23 47 - 71 17 5 -28 36 47 - 67 54 11 -28 11 41 - 72 56 28 -28 48 54 - 70 28 31 -30 6 18 7 56 0 58 25 -25 - 69 34 58 -29 59 42 - 71 22 23 -30 12 54 - 67 56 8 -29 47 25 - 73 3 28 -30 25 12 - 70 33 44 -31 43 51 7 56 19 56 24 -24 - 69 39 13 -31 37 8 - 71 28 35 -31 50 34 - 67 58 38 -31 24 39 - 73 11 33 -32 3 3 - 70 39 51 -33 23 5 7 56 39 55 23 -23 - 69 44 16 -33 16 15 - 71 35 48 -33 29 55 - 68 1 45 -33 3 33 - 73 20 51 -33 42 39 - 70 46 58 -35 4 12 7 56 59 53 22 -23 - 69 50 12 -34 57 14 - 71 44 7 -35 11 10 - 68 5 32 -34 44 18 - 73 31 31 -35 24 9 - 70 55 13 -36 47 24 7 57 19 52 21 -22 - 69 57 7 -36 40 17 - 71 53 44 -36 54 31 - 68 10 4 -36 27 4 - 73 43 43 -37 7 46 - 71 4 46 -38 32 54 7 57 39 50 20 -21 - 70 5 11 -38 25 37 - 72 4 47 -38 40 11 - 68 15 28 -38 12 6 - 73 57 42 -38 53 45 - 71 15 48 -40 20 59 7 57 59 48 20 -20 - 70 14 33 -40 13 31 - 72 17 32 -40 28 27 - 68 21 50 -39 59 39 - 74 13 44 -40 42 22 - 71 28 35 -42 11 58 7 58 19 47 19 -19 - 70 25 28 -42 4 17 - 72 32 15 -42 19 38 - 68 29 21 -41 50 3 - 74 32 12 -42 33 57 - 71 43 28 -44 6 13 7 58 39 45 19 -18 - 70 38 11 -43 58 18 - 72 49 21 -44 14 7 - 68 38 14 -43 43 38 - 74 53 34 -44 28 52 - 72 0 52 -46 4 11 7 58 59 43 19 -17 - 70 53 7 -45 56 0 - 73 9 17 -46 12 22 - 68 48 44 -45 40 50 - 75 18 28 -46 27 37 - 72 21 22 -48 6 25 7 59 19 41 18 -16 - 71 10 44 -47 57 56 - 73 32 45 -48 14 54 - 69 1 13 -47 42 12 - 75 47 43 -48 30 45 - 72 45 46 -50 13 35 7 59 39 39 18 -15 - 71 31 45 -50 4 45 - 74 0 39 -50 22 27 - 69 16 13 -49 48 21 - 76 22 29 -50 38 58 - 73 15 11 -52 26 33 7 59 59 37 18 -13 - 71 57 6 -52 17 18 - 74 34 17 -52 35 51 - 69 34 23 -52 0 7 - 77 4 24 -52 53 10 - 73 51 15 -54 46 27 8 0 19 34 18 -12 - 72 28 13 -54 36 40 - 75 15 32 -54 56 14 - 69 56 46 -54 18 34 - 77 55 53 -55 14 32 - 74 36 30 -57 14 43 8 0 39 32 19 -11 - 73 7 14 -57 4 20 - 76 7 18 -57 25 9 - 70 24 54 -56 45 5 - 79 0 41 -57 44 38 - 75 34 58 -59 53 29 8 0 59 29 19 -9 - 73 57 36 -59 42 18 - 77 14 20 -60 4 42 - 71 1 13 -59 21 37 - 80 24 58 -60 25 42 - 76 53 46 -62 45 45 8 1 19 26 20 -8 - 75 5 18 -62 33 32 - 78 44 56 -62 58 1 - 71 49 57 -62 10 59 - 82 19 48 -63 21 1 - 78 46 41 -65 56 19 8 1 39 23 21 -6 - 76 41 51 -65 42 40 - 80 55 33 -66 10 3 - 72 59 1 -65 17 32 - 85 7 34 -66 35 50 - 81 45 22 -69 33 34 8 1 59 19 24 -4 - 79 13 9 -69 17 45 - 84 24 34 -69 49 31 - 74 45 47 -68 48 45 - 89 42 57 -70 19 36 - 87 26 13 -73 54 55 8 2 19 15 29 -2 - 83 55 25 -73 35 17 - 91 13 51 -74 14 51 - 77 58 35 -72 59 31 - 99 17 8 -74 52 42 Uncertainty in time = +/- 20 secs Prediction of 2012 Oct 8.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC2 31634154 * constellation : Orion * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 06 04 55.9844 DE: -00 19 40.087 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .102, .102 ) * V mag [mag]: 12.0 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (194) Prokne approx. diameter [km]: 167 approx. diameter ["]: .110 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.09800 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 07 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1129 number of rejected observations: 137 time covered by the observations: 1913 Apr 04 - 2012 Oct 02 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.013, 0.008, 79° remarks: * orbital elements for (194) Prokne : Mean anomaly = 81.03487792 deg Arg. of pericenter = 163.30157253 deg Long. of node = 159.41904825 deg Inclination = 18.48063793 deg Eccentricity = 0.23602552 Semimajor axis = 2.61889901 AU Perihelion dist = 2.00077202 AU Mag: H = 7.72, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56221.32600000 TDT (2012 Oct 21.326) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Oct 21 194 Prokne 7h 49.7m UT 12.0 6 4 55.984- 0 19 40.09UCAC2 31634154 0.0 12.4 167 21.3 2.098 0.157 -18.40 -56.3505 -0.323 58.74 -10.88 7.8279 -0.25028 -0.03160 0.56814 -4.38927 -0.00513 0.00111 2000 80.72651020121020.00000163.301573159.419048 18.4806380.23602552 2.6188990 2.0007720 7.7 5.00.15 RATE 2.3255510 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.103 0.102 90 1.93 0.102 0 0 4 3 056208.0020121021_634154 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 07, 19:07 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org