IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (19) Fortuna / TYC 6322-00308-1 event on 2012 Nov 04, 13:57 UT Visible from SW Australia Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 04 UT, the 230 km diameter asteroid (19) Fortuna will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across SW Australia. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.9 mag to 11.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.2 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 99 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 04, 13:58 - 2012 Nov 04, 14:01 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456236.08187083 * magnitude of target star: 11.6 * magnitude drop [mag]: 0.9 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 9.2 * Moon: 73 % sunlit, 166° distance * Sun: 76° distance * rough path description: SW Australia The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 282 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.24 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.2 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .035 +/- .033) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .035", .033", 90° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 24.8725 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 6322-00308-1 by 19 Fortuna on 2012 Nov 4 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 76 0 0 -49 40 30 13 58 50 51 311 0 -51 4 3 -48 18 28 -51 44 44 -47 39 36 77 0 0 -49 24 13 13 58 53 51 310 -1 -50 47 57 -48 2 2 -51 28 43 -47 23 5 78 0 0 -49 7 39 13 58 56 51 308 -2 -50 31 32 -47 45 18 -51 12 23 -47 6 17 79 0 0 -48 50 46 13 58 59 50 307 -3 -50 14 49 -47 28 16 -50 55 46 -46 49 10 80 0 0 -48 33 35 13 59 2 50 305 -3 -49 57 48 -47 10 56 -50 38 50 -46 31 46 81 0 0 -48 16 7 13 59 5 50 304 -4 -49 40 30 -46 53 18 -50 21 36 -46 14 4 82 0 0 -47 58 21 13 59 8 49 302 -5 -49 22 54 -46 35 23 -50 4 4 -45 56 5 83 0 0 -47 40 18 13 59 11 49 301 -6 -49 5 0 -46 17 11 -49 46 15 -45 37 49 84 0 0 -47 21 57 13 59 14 48 299 -6 -48 46 48 -45 58 42 -49 28 8 -45 19 16 85 0 0 -47 3 19 13 59 17 48 298 -7 -48 28 19 -45 39 56 -49 9 44 -45 0 26 86 0 0 -46 44 25 13 59 21 47 297 -8 -48 9 33 -45 20 53 -48 51 2 -44 41 19 87 0 0 -46 25 13 13 59 24 47 295 -9 -47 50 30 -45 1 33 -48 32 3 -44 21 56 88 0 0 -46 5 45 13 59 27 46 294 -9 -47 31 10 -44 41 58 -48 12 47 -44 2 16 89 0 0 -45 46 1 13 59 30 46 293 -10 -47 11 34 -44 22 6 -47 53 15 -43 42 21 90 0 0 -45 26 0 13 59 33 45 291 -11 -46 51 41 -44 1 58 -47 33 26 -43 22 10 91 0 0 -45 5 44 13 59 36 45 290 -12 -46 31 32 -43 41 35 -47 13 21 -43 1 44 92 0 0 -44 45 13 13 59 39 44 289 -12 -46 11 7 -43 20 57 -46 53 0 -42 41 3 93 0 0 -44 24 26 13 59 42 44 288 -13 -45 50 27 -43 0 4 -46 32 23 -42 20 7 94 0 0 -44 3 24 13 59 45 43 286 -14 -45 29 32 -42 38 56 -46 11 31 -41 58 56 95 0 0 -43 42 8 13 59 48 42 285 -15 -45 8 22 -42 17 34 -45 50 23 -41 37 32 96 0 0 -43 20 38 13 59 51 42 284 -16 -44 46 57 -41 55 59 -45 29 2 -41 15 54 97 0 0 -42 58 53 13 59 54 41 283 -16 -44 25 18 -41 34 10 -45 7 25 -40 54 3 98 0 0 -42 36 56 13 59 57 41 282 -17 -44 3 25 -41 12 8 -44 45 35 -40 31 58 99 0 0 -42 14 46 14 0 0 40 281 -18 -43 41 20 -40 49 53 -44 23 31 -40 9 42 100 0 0 -41 52 23 14 0 3 39 279 -19 -43 19 1 -40 27 26 -44 1 15 -39 47 14 101 0 0 -41 29 48 14 0 6 39 278 -20 -42 56 30 -40 4 48 -43 38 45 -39 24 34 102 0 0 -41 7 1 14 0 9 38 277 -20 -42 33 46 -39 41 59 -43 16 4 -39 1 43 103 0 0 -40 44 4 14 0 12 37 276 -21 -42 10 52 -39 18 58 -42 53 10 -38 38 41 104 0 0 -40 20 56 14 0 15 36 275 -22 -41 47 46 -38 55 48 -42 30 6 -38 15 30 105 0 0 -39 57 38 14 0 18 36 274 -23 -41 24 30 -38 32 28 -42 6 51 -37 52 9 106 0 0 -39 34 10 14 0 20 35 273 -24 -41 1 4 -38 8 59 -41 43 26 -37 28 40 107 0 0 -39 10 34 14 0 23 34 272 -24 -40 37 28 -37 45 22 -41 19 51 -37 5 2 108 0 0 -38 46 49 14 0 26 33 272 -25 -40 13 44 -37 21 36 -40 56 7 -36 41 16 109 0 0 -38 22 56 14 0 28 33 271 -26 -39 49 52 -36 57 44 -40 32 15 -36 17 23 110 0 0 -37 58 57 14 0 31 32 270 -27 -39 25 52 -36 33 44 -40 8 15 -35 53 24 111 0 0 -37 34 50 14 0 34 31 269 -28 -39 1 45 -36 9 39 -39 44 7 -35 29 19 112 0 0 -37 10 38 14 0 36 30 268 -28 -38 37 32 -35 45 28 -39 19 53 -35 5 8 113 0 0 -36 46 21 14 0 39 29 267 -29 -38 13 13 -35 21 12 -38 55 34 -34 40 53 114 0 0 -36 21 59 14 0 41 29 266 -30 -37 48 49 -34 56 52 -38 31 9 -34 16 34 115 0 0 -35 57 33 14 0 43 28 266 -31 -37 24 20 -34 32 28 -38 6 39 -33 52 11 116 0 0 -35 33 4 14 0 46 27 265 -32 -36 59 48 -34 8 1 -37 42 6 -33 27 46 117 0 0 -35 8 32 14 0 48 26 264 -33 -36 35 13 -33 43 33 -37 17 29 -33 3 19 118 0 0 -34 43 58 14 0 50 25 263 -33 -36 10 36 -33 19 2 -36 52 50 -32 38 50 119 0 0 -34 19 23 14 0 52 24 263 -34 -35 45 57 -32 54 31 -36 28 9 -32 14 21 120 0 0 -33 54 48 14 0 54 23 262 -35 -35 21 17 -32 30 0 -36 3 27 -31 49 51 121 0 0 -33 30 13 14 0 56 22 261 -36 -34 56 37 -32 5 29 -35 38 44 -31 25 23 122 0 0 -33 5 38 14 0 58 22 261 -36 -34 31 57 -31 41 0 -35 14 2 -31 0 56 123 0 0 -32 41 5 14 1 0 21 260 -37 -34 7 19 -31 16 32 -34 49 21 -30 36 31 124 0 0 -32 16 35 14 1 2 20 259 -38 -33 42 42 -30 52 8 -34 24 41 -30 12 8 125 0 0 -31 52 7 14 1 4 19 259 -39 -33 18 9 -30 27 46 -34 0 4 -29 47 49 126 0 0 -31 27 43 14 1 5 18 258 -39 -32 53 38 -30 3 28 -33 35 31 -29 23 35 127 0 0 -31 3 24 14 1 7 17 258 -40 -32 29 12 -29 39 15 -33 11 1 -28 59 25 128 0 0 -30 39 10 14 1 8 16 257 -41 -32 4 50 -29 15 8 -32 46 35 -28 35 20 129 0 0 -30 15 1 14 1 10 15 256 -42 -31 40 34 -28 51 6 -32 22 16 -28 11 22 130 0 0 -29 50 59 14 1 11 14 256 -42 -31 16 24 -28 27 11 -31 58 2 -27 47 31 131 0 0 -29 27 4 14 1 12 13 255 -43 -30 52 21 -28 3 24 -31 33 55 -27 23 47 132 0 0 -29 3 17 14 1 14 12 255 -44 -30 28 26 -27 39 45 -31 9 55 -27 0 11 133 0 0 -28 39 38 14 1 15 11 254 -44 -30 4 38 -27 16 14 -30 46 3 -26 36 44 134 0 0 -28 16 8 14 1 16 10 254 -45 -29 41 0 -26 52 53 -30 22 21 -26 13 26 135 0 0 -27 52 48 14 1 17 9 253 -45 -29 17 31 -26 29 41 -29 58 47 -25 50 19 136 0 0 -27 29 39 14 1 17 8 253 -46 -28 54 13 -26 6 41 -29 35 24 -25 27 22 137 0 0 -27 6 41 14 1 18 7 252 -47 -28 31 5 -25 43 51 -29 12 12 -25 4 37 138 0 0 -26 43 54 14 1 19 7 252 -47 -28 8 9 -25 21 13 -28 49 11 -24 42 3 139 0 0 -26 21 20 14 1 19 6 252 -48 -27 45 25 -24 58 48 -28 26 23 -24 19 42 140 0 0 -25 58 58 14 1 20 5 251 -48 -27 22 54 -24 36 36 -28 3 46 -23 57 34 141 0 0 -25 36 50 14 1 20 4 251 -49 -27 0 36 -24 14 37 -27 41 24 -23 35 40 142 0 0 -25 14 56 14 1 21 3 250 -49 -26 38 32 -23 52 52 -27 19 15 -23 13 59 143 0 0 -24 53 17 14 1 21 2 250 -50 -26 16 43 -23 31 22 -26 57 20 -22 52 34 144 0 0 -24 31 52 14 1 21 1 249 -50 -25 55 8 -23 10 8 -26 35 41 .. .. .. Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs Prediction of 2012 Oct 26.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 6322-00308-1 * constellation : Sagittarius * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 20 00 43.9832 DE: -19 04 27.768 * position source: mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .035, .033 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.6 * B mag [mag]: 11.9 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (19) Fortuna approx. diameter [km]: 230 approx. diameter ["]: .139 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.28400 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 25 source of used astrometry: FASTT TMO MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1894 number of rejected observations: 263 time covered by the observations: 1900 Feb 12 - 2012 Oct 19 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.006, 0.005, 79° remarks: * orbital elements for (19) Fortuna : Mean anomaly = 306.25418520 deg Arg. of pericenter = 182.37456956 deg Long. of node = 211.23514325 deg Inclination = 1.57339769 deg Eccentricity = 0.15783391 Semimajor axis = 2.44193190 AU Perihelion dist = 2.05651224 AU Mag: H = 7.17, G = 0.10 Epoch of elements : MJD 56235.58200000 TDT (2012 Nov 04.582) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 4 19 Fortuna 13h 57.9m UT 11.6 20 0 43.983-19 4 27.77TYC 6322-00308-1 11.9 11.9 230 9.2 2.284 3.757 9.26 46.4938 -19.078 -33.57 -15.61 13.9649 0.10448 -0.57069 13.83166 2.40236 0.00532 0.00112 2000 304.81242320121030.00000182.374570211.235143 1.5733980.15783391 2.4419319 2.0565122 7.1 5.00.10 RATE 2.5828770 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.035 0.033 90 1.24 0.033 0 0 2 2 056226.0020121104_0308-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 25, 21:51 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org