IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (1605) Milankovitch / TYC 0685-01375-1 event on 2012 Nov 06, 12:43 UT Visible from Mexico, Australia Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 06 UT, the 34 km diameter asteroid (1605) Milankovitch will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path across Mexico, Australia. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.9 mag to 14.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.8 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 45 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 06, 12:32 - 2012 Nov 06, 12:55 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456238.03027083 * magnitude of target star: 10.5 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.9 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 3.8 * Moon: 55 % sunlit, 54° distance * Sun: 146° distance * rough path description: Mexico, Australia The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 34 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 1.44 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 6.4 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .044 +/- .031) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .044", .031", 86° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 8.8318 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 0685-01375-1 by 1605 Milankovitch on 2012 Nov 6 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude 112 51 34 -37 0 0 12 55 34 1 79 -20 111 48 36 113 51 27 ... .. .. 116 30 13 118 32 10 -36 0 0 12 55 31 6 76 -24 117 43 51 119 19 7 115 15 30 121 27 36 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 119 0 0 -35 54 24 12 55 30 6 76 -24 -35 44 53 -36 3 54 -35 17 31 -36 31 18 120 0 0 -35 41 57 12 55 29 7 75 -25 -35 32 25 -35 51 29 -35 5 0 -36 18 56 121 0 0 -35 29 0 12 55 28 8 74 -25 -35 19 27 -35 38 33 -34 51 57 -36 6 5 122 0 0 -35 15 33 12 55 26 9 74 -26 -35 5 59 -35 25 8 -34 38 25 -35 52 44 123 0 0 -35 1 37 12 55 24 9 73 -27 -34 52 1 -35 11 13 -34 24 23 -35 38 52 124 0 0 -34 47 9 12 55 23 10 73 -28 -34 37 32 -34 56 47 -34 9 50 -35 24 31 125 0 0 -34 32 12 12 55 21 11 72 -28 -34 22 33 -34 41 51 -33 54 46 -35 9 39 126 0 0 -34 16 44 12 55 19 12 72 -29 -34 7 3 -34 26 24 -33 39 12 -34 54 17 127 0 0 -34 0 45 12 55 16 13 71 -30 -33 51 3 -34 10 27 -33 23 7 -34 38 25 128 0 0 -33 44 16 12 55 14 14 70 -31 -33 34 32 -33 54 0 -33 6 32 -34 22 2 129 0 0 -33 27 16 12 55 11 15 70 -31 -33 17 31 -33 37 1 -32 49 25 -34 5 8 130 0 0 -33 9 45 12 55 8 15 69 -32 -32 59 58 -33 19 32 -32 31 48 -33 47 44 131 0 0 -32 51 43 12 55 5 16 69 -33 -32 41 54 -33 1 32 -32 13 39 -33 29 49 132 0 0 -32 33 10 12 55 2 17 68 -33 -32 23 20 -32 43 1 -31 55 0 -33 11 23 133 0 0 -32 14 6 12 54 58 18 68 -34 -32 4 14 -32 23 58 -31 35 49 -32 52 25 134 0 0 -31 54 31 12 54 55 19 67 -35 -31 44 37 -32 4 25 -31 16 6 -32 32 57 135 0 0 -31 34 24 12 54 51 20 67 -36 -31 24 28 -31 44 20 -30 55 53 -32 12 58 136 0 0 -31 13 46 12 54 47 21 66 -36 -31 3 49 -31 23 44 -30 35 8 -31 52 27 137 0 0 -30 52 37 12 54 43 22 66 -37 -30 42 38 -31 2 37 -30 13 52 -31 31 25 138 0 0 -30 30 57 12 54 39 23 65 -38 -30 20 56 -30 40 59 -29 52 4 -31 9 52 139 0 0 -30 8 45 12 54 34 24 65 -39 -29 58 42 -30 18 49 -29 29 46 -30 47 48 140 0 0 -29 46 2 12 54 29 25 64 -39 -29 35 57 -29 56 8 -29 6 55 -30 25 12 141 0 0 -29 22 48 12 54 24 25 64 -40 -29 12 41 -29 32 55 -28 43 34 -30 2 5 142 0 0 -28 59 3 12 54 19 26 63 -41 -28 48 54 -29 9 12 -28 19 41 -29 38 27 143 0 0 -28 34 46 12 54 14 27 63 -42 -28 24 36 -28 44 57 -27 55 17 -29 14 18 144 0 0 -28 9 59 12 54 8 28 62 -42 -27 59 46 -28 20 12 -27 30 22 -28 49 38 145 0 0 -27 44 40 12 54 2 29 62 -43 -27 34 26 -27 54 55 -27 4 56 -28 24 27 146 0 0 -27 18 51 12 53 56 30 61 -44 -27 8 34 -27 29 8 -26 39 0 -27 58 45 147 0 0 -26 52 31 12 53 50 31 61 -45 -26 42 12 -27 2 49 -26 12 32 -27 32 32 148 0 0 -26 25 40 12 53 43 32 60 -45 -26 15 20 -26 36 1 -25 45 35 -27 5 49 149 0 0 -25 58 20 12 53 37 33 60 -46 -25 47 58 -26 8 42 -25 18 7 -26 38 35 150 0 0 -25 30 29 12 53 30 34 59 -47 -25 20 5 -25 40 53 -24 50 9 -26 10 52 151 0 0 -25 2 8 12 53 23 35 59 -47 -24 51 43 -25 12 34 -24 21 41 -25 42 38 152 0 0 -24 33 18 12 53 15 36 59 -48 -24 22 51 -24 43 46 -23 52 44 -25 13 55 153 0 0 -24 3 59 12 53 8 37 58 -49 -23 53 30 -24 14 29 -23 23 18 -24 44 43 154 0 0 -23 34 11 12 53 0 38 58 -49 -23 23 40 -23 44 43 -22 53 23 -24 15 2 155 0 0 -23 3 55 12 52 52 39 57 -50 -22 53 22 -23 14 28 -22 23 0 -23 44 52 156 0 0 -22 33 10 12 52 44 40 57 -51 -22 22 36 -22 43 45 -21 52 9 -23 14 14 157 0 0 -22 1 58 12 52 35 41 56 -51 -21 51 22 -22 12 35 -21 20 50 -22 43 9 158 0 0 -21 30 19 12 52 26 42 56 -52 -21 19 41 -21 40 57 -20 49 5 -22 11 36 159 0 0 -20 58 13 12 52 17 43 56 -53 -20 47 34 -21 8 53 -20 16 53 -21 39 36 160 0 0 -20 25 41 12 52 8 44 55 -53 -20 15 0 -20 36 23 -19 44 15 -21 7 11 161 0 0 -19 52 44 12 51 59 45 55 -54 -19 42 1 -20 3 27 -19 11 12 -20 34 19 162 0 0 -19 19 22 12 51 49 46 54 -55 -19 8 37 -19 30 6 -18 37 44 -20 1 3 163 0 0 -18 45 35 12 51 39 48 54 -55 -18 34 49 -18 56 21 -18 3 52 -19 27 22 164 0 0 -18 11 25 12 51 29 49 54 -56 -18 0 38 -18 22 12 -17 29 36 -18 53 17 165 0 0 -17 36 52 12 51 19 50 53 -56 -17 26 4 -17 47 40 -16 54 58 -18 18 49 166 0 0 -17 1 57 12 51 9 51 53 -57 -16 51 7 -17 12 46 -16 19 58 -17 43 59 167 0 0 -16 26 40 12 50 58 52 52 -57 -16 15 49 -16 37 31 -15 44 36 -17 8 47 168 0 0 -15 51 3 12 50 47 53 52 -58 -15 40 11 -16 1 55 -15 8 55 -16 33 14 169 0 0 -15 15 6 12 50 36 54 52 -58 -15 4 13 -15 25 59 -14 32 54 -15 57 22 170 0 0 -14 38 50 12 50 25 55 51 -59 -14 27 56 -14 49 45 -13 56 34 -15 21 10 171 0 0 -14 2 17 12 50 13 56 51 -59 -13 51 22 -14 13 12 -13 19 57 -14 44 40 172 0 0 -13 25 26 12 50 1 57 50 -59 -13 14 30 -13 36 22 -12 43 2 -14 7 53 173 0 0 -12 48 19 12 49 50 58 50 -60 -12 37 22 -12 59 16 -12 5 52 -13 30 49 174 0 0 -12 10 57 12 49 37 60 50 -60 -12 0 0 -12 21 55 -11 28 27 -12 53 30 175 0 0 -11 33 21 12 49 25 61 49 -60 -11 22 23 -11 44 19 -10 50 48 -12 15 57 176 0 0 -10 55 32 12 49 13 62 49 -60 -10 44 33 -11 6 31 -10 12 57 -11 38 10 177 0 0 -10 17 30 12 49 0 63 48 -60 -10 6 31 -10 28 30 - 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99 0 0 29 19 6 12 33 12 30 262 -5 29 28 27 29 9 44 29 55 24 28 42 46 - 98 0 0 29 28 3 12 33 7 29 263 -4 29 37 24 29 18 43 30 4 18 28 51 47 - 97 0 0 29 36 31 12 33 2 28 263 -3 29 45 50 29 27 11 30 12 42 29 0 18 - 96 0 0 29 44 28 12 32 56 28 263 -3 29 53 47 29 35 9 30 20 36 29 8 18 - 95 0 0 29 51 55 12 32 52 27 264 -2 30 1 14 29 42 37 30 28 1 29 15 48 - 94 0 0 29 58 53 12 32 47 26 264 -1 30 8 10 29 49 35 30 34 56 29 22 49 - 93 0 0 30 5 20 12 32 42 25 265 0 30 14 37 29 56 3 30 41 21 29 29 19 Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs Prediction of 2012 Sep 7.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 0685-01375-1 * constellation : Orion * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 05 01 18.8323 DE: +08 03 04.650 * position source: mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .024, .024 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.5 * B mag [mag]: 11.3 * Apparent position with proper motion RA(deg): 75.5114445621 DE(deg): 8.0695501745 * Equation of equinoxes (radians) : 0.000058722942158 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (1605) Milankovitch approx. diameter [km]: 34 approx. diameter ["]: .024 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.91700 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Jul 10 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1208 number of rejected observations: 60 time covered by the observations: 1936 Apr 13 - 2012 Jan 01 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.037, 0.019, 85° remarks: * orbital elements for (1605) Milankovitch : Mean anomaly = 337.70018111 deg Arg. of pericenter = 276.96878020 deg Long. of node = 173.85655231 deg Inclination = 10.55820908 deg Eccentricity = 0.07961989 Semimajor axis = 3.01547128 AU Perihelion dist = 2.77537980 AU Mag: H = 10.16, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56237.53000000 TDT (2012 Nov 06.530) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 6 1605 Milankovitch 12h 43.6m UT 10.5 5 1 18.832 8 3 4.65TYC 0685-01375-1 11.3 14.4 34 3.8 1.917 -1.284 -12.64 -161.7053 8.055 -14.98 -16.19 12.7265 0.03626 -0.05669 -4.15318 -2.75687 -0.00313 0.00095 2000 336.28286620121030.00000276.968780173.856552 10.5582090.07961989 3.0154713 2.775379810.1 5.00.15 RATE 1.8822240 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.044 0.031 86 2.44 0.035 0 0 3 0 056177.0020121106_1375-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Sep 07, 23:21 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org