IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (951) Gaspra / TYC 0818-00307-1 event on 2012 Nov 11, 00:15 UT Visible from Russia, Scandanavia Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 11 UT, the 16 km diameter asteroid (951) Gaspra will occult a 10.0 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a path across Russia, Scandanavia. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.6 mag to 15.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.1 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 30 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 11, 00:10 - 2012 Nov 11, 00:15 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456242.51107917 * magnitude of target star: 10.0 * magnitude drop [mag]: 5.6 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 1.1 * Moon: 12 % sunlit, 52° distance * Sun: 93° distance * rough path description: Russia, Scandanavia The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 20 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 2.22 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.6 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .030 +/- .026) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .030", .026", 98° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 14.7626 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 0818-00307-1 by 951 Gaspra on 2012 Nov 11 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 28 0 0 58 24 34 0 10 6 0 64 -46 58 18 39 58 30 30 .. .. .. 58 56 56 - 27 0 0 58 39 51 0 10 6 1 65 -46 58 33 57 58 45 45 .. .. .. 59 12 5 - 26 0 0 58 54 43 0 10 6 1 66 -46 58 48 51 59 0 36 .. .. .. 59 26 50 - 25 0 0 59 9 12 0 10 6 2 67 -46 59 3 20 59 15 3 58 37 26 59 41 11 - 24 0 0 59 23 16 0 10 7 2 67 -46 59 17 26 59 29 7 58 51 38 59 55 8 - 23 0 0 59 36 58 0 10 7 3 68 -46 59 31 9 59 42 47 59 5 27 60 8 43 - 22 0 0 59 50 16 0 10 7 3 69 -46 59 44 29 59 56 4 59 18 52 60 21 54 - 21 0 0 60 3 12 0 10 7 4 70 -46 59 57 25 60 8 58 59 31 54 60 34 42 - 20 0 0 60 15 44 0 10 8 5 71 -46 60 10 0 60 21 30 59 44 34 60 47 8 - 19 0 0 60 27 55 0 10 8 5 72 -46 60 22 11 60 33 39 59 56 51 60 59 12 - 18 0 0 60 39 43 0 10 9 6 73 -46 60 34 1 60 45 26 60 8 46 61 10 53 - 17 0 0 60 51 10 0 10 9 6 73 -46 60 45 29 60 56 51 60 20 19 61 22 13 - 16 0 0 61 2 15 0 10 10 7 74 -46 60 56 35 61 7 55 60 31 30 61 33 12 - 15 0 0 61 12 59 0 10 10 7 75 -46 61 7 20 61 18 38 60 42 20 61 43 49 - 14 0 0 61 23 21 0 10 11 8 76 -46 61 17 43 61 28 59 60 52 49 61 54 6 - 13 0 0 61 33 23 0 10 12 8 77 -46 61 27 46 61 39 0 61 2 57 62 4 2 - 12 0 0 61 43 4 0 10 12 9 78 -46 61 37 29 61 48 40 61 12 44 62 13 37 - 11 0 0 61 52 25 0 10 13 9 79 -45 61 46 51 61 58 0 61 22 10 62 22 52 - 10 0 0 62 1 26 0 10 14 10 80 -45 61 55 53 62 7 0 61 31 17 62 31 47 - 9 0 0 62 10 7 0 10 15 10 81 -45 62 4 35 62 15 40 61 40 3 62 40 23 - 8 0 0 62 18 29 0 10 15 11 81 -45 62 12 57 62 24 1 61 48 30 62 48 39 - 7 0 0 62 26 31 0 10 16 11 82 -45 62 21 0 62 32 2 61 56 37 62 56 36 - 6 0 0 62 34 13 0 10 17 12 83 -45 62 28 44 62 39 43 62 4 24 63 4 14 - 5 0 0 62 41 37 0 10 18 12 84 -45 62 36 8 62 47 6 62 11 53 63 11 32 - 4 0 0 62 48 42 0 10 19 13 85 -45 62 43 14 62 54 10 62 19 2 63 18 33 - 3 0 0 62 55 28 0 10 20 13 86 -44 62 50 1 63 0 56 62 25 53 63 25 14 - 2 0 0 63 1 56 0 10 21 13 87 -44 62 56 30 63 7 23 62 32 25 63 31 38 - 1 0 0 63 8 6 0 10 22 14 88 -44 63 2 40 63 13 32 62 38 39 63 37 43 0 0 0 63 13 57 0 10 23 14 89 -44 63 8 32 63 19 22 62 44 34 63 43 31 1 0 0 63 19 31 0 10 24 15 90 -44 63 14 7 63 24 55 62 50 12 63 49 1 2 0 0 63 24 47 0 10 25 15 91 -44 63 19 23 63 30 10 62 55 31 63 54 13 3 0 0 63 29 45 0 10 26 16 91 -44 63 24 22 63 35 8 63 0 33 63 59 8 4 0 0 63 34 25 0 10 28 16 92 -43 63 29 3 63 39 48 63 5 17 64 3 45 5 0 0 63 38 49 0 10 29 17 93 -43 63 33 27 63 44 11 63 9 43 64 8 5 6 0 0 63 42 55 0 10 30 17 94 -43 63 37 34 63 48 16 63 13 52 64 12 8 7 0 0 63 46 44 0 10 31 18 95 -43 63 41 23 63 52 5 63 17 43 64 15 54 8 0 0 63 50 16 0 10 32 18 96 -43 63 44 55 63 55 36 63 21 18 64 19 24 9 0 0 63 53 31 0 10 34 18 97 -42 63 48 11 63 58 51 63 24 35 64 22 37 10 0 0 63 56 29 0 10 35 19 98 -42 63 51 9 64 1 49 63 27 36 64 25 33 11 0 0 63 59 10 0 10 36 19 99 -42 63 53 51 64 4 30 63 30 19 64 28 12 12 0 0 64 1 35 0 10 38 20 100 -42 63 56 16 64 6 54 63 32 46 64 30 35 13 0 0 64 3 43 0 10 39 20 101 -42 63 58 25 64 9 2 63 34 55 64 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2 72 0 0 57 23 19 0 13 5 45 164 -20 57 17 20 57 29 19 56 50 50 57 56 3 73 0 0 57 5 45 0 13 9 46 165 -20 56 59 44 57 11 46 56 33 8 57 38 36 74 0 0 56 47 43 0 13 14 46 166 -19 56 41 41 56 53 46 56 14 59 57 20 43 75 0 0 56 29 15 0 13 18 46 168 -19 56 23 11 56 35 19 55 56 22 57 2 22 76 0 0 56 10 18 0 13 22 47 169 -18 56 4 13 56 16 24 55 37 18 56 43 34 77 0 0 55 50 54 0 13 27 47 170 -17 55 44 47 55 57 1 55 17 46 56 24 18 78 0 0 55 31 2 0 13 31 48 172 -17 55 24 53 55 37 10 54 57 45 56 4 33 79 0 0 55 10 41 0 13 36 48 173 -16 55 4 31 55 16 51 54 37 17 55 44 20 80 0 0 54 49 51 0 13 41 49 175 -16 54 43 40 54 56 3 54 16 19 55 23 39 81 0 0 54 28 33 0 13 45 49 176 -15 54 22 20 54 34 46 53 54 53 55 2 28 82 0 0 54 6 45 0 13 50 49 178 -14 54 0 32 54 13 0 53 32 58 54 40 49 83 0 0 53 44 29 0 13 55 50 179 -14 53 38 14 53 50 45 53 10 34 54 18 40 84 0 0 53 21 43 0 14 0 50 181 -13 53 15 27 53 28 0 52 47 41 53 56 2 85 0 0 52 58 28 0 14 6 50 182 -12 52 52 10 53 4 47 52 24 19 53 32 55 86 0 0 52 34 44 0 14 11 51 184 -12 52 28 24 52 41 4 52 0 27 53 9 17 87 0 0 52 10 30 0 14 16 51 185 -11 52 4 9 52 16 51 51 36 6 52 45 11 88 0 0 51 45 46 0 14 22 52 187 -10 51 39 24 51 52 9 51 11 15 52 20 34 89 0 0 51 20 33 0 14 27 52 189 -9 51 14 10 51 26 57 50 45 56 51 55 29 90 0 0 50 54 51 0 14 33 52 191 -9 50 48 27 51 1 16 50 20 7 51 29 53 91 0 0 50 28 40 0 14 39 52 192 -8 50 22 14 50 35 6 49 53 49 51 3 48 92 0 0 50 1 59 0 14 44 53 194 -7 49 55 32 50 8 26 49 27 2 50 37 14 93 0 0 49 34 49 0 14 50 53 196 -6 49 28 21 49 41 18 48 59 47 50 10 11 94 0 0 49 7 11 0 14 56 53 198 -6 49 0 42 49 13 41 48 32 2 49 42 38 95 0 0 48 39 4 0 15 2 54 199 -5 48 32 34 48 45 35 48 3 50 49 14 37 96 0 0 48 10 30 0 15 9 54 201 -4 48 3 59 48 17 1 47 35 10 48 46 8 97 0 0 47 41 27 0 15 15 54 203 -3 47 34 55 47 48 0 47 6 3 48 17 10 98 0 0 47 11 57 0 15 21 54 205 -2 47 5 25 47 18 31 46 36 28 47 47 45 99 0 0 46 42 1 0 15 28 54 207 -2 46 35 27 46 48 35 46 6 27 47 17 53 100 0 0 46 11 38 0 15 34 54 209 -1 46 5 4 46 18 13 45 36 0 46 47 35 Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs Prediction of 2012 Sep 25.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 0818-00307-1 * constellation : Cancer * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 09 09 46.3018 DE: +13 29 38.157 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .023, .024 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.0 * B mag [mag]: 11.7 * Apparent position with proper motion RA(deg): 137.6230050814 DE(deg): 13.4392656409 * Equation of equinoxes (radians) : 0.000057272776495 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (951) Gaspra approx. diameter [km]: 16 approx. diameter ["]: .012 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.81500 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Jul 10 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1415 number of rejected observations: 57 time covered by the observations: 1913 Dec 19 - 2011 Nov 23 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.019, 0.012, 110° remarks: * orbital elements for (951) Gaspra : Mean anomaly = 65.63008520 deg Arg. of pericenter = 129.61871397 deg Long. of node = 253.16787339 deg Inclination = 4.10305364 deg Eccentricity = 0.17380337 Semimajor axis = 2.20970444 AU Perihelion dist = 1.82565036 AU Mag: H = 11.49, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56242.01100000 TDT (2012 Nov 11.011) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 11 951 Gaspra 0h 16.0m UT 10.0 9 9 46.302 13 29 38.16TYC 0818-00307-1 11.7 15.6 16 1.1 1.815 2.497 -17.41 82.9008 13.499 172.02 -17.47 0.2659 0.24854 0.52132 7.51846 -3.59192 -0.00529 0.00164 2000 65.026672201211 9.00000129.618714253.167873 4.1030540.17380337 2.2097044 1.825650411.5 5.00.15 RATE 3.0005630 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.030 0.026 98 3.22 0.027 0 0-2-3 056195.0020121111_0307-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Sep 25, 19:42 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org