IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (456) Abnoba / TYC 5184-02087-1 event on 2012 Nov 13, 17:51 UT Visible from Russia, Europe Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 13 UT, the 43 km diameter asteroid (456) Abnoba will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Aquila for observers along a path across Russia, Europe. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.9 mag to 14.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.7 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 35 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 13, 17:50 - 2012 Nov 13, 17:54 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456245.24395417 * magnitude of target star: 10.7 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.9 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 1.7 * Moon: 0 % sunlit, 81° distance * Sun: 79° distance * rough path description: Russia, Europe The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 66 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 1.89 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.3 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .028 +/- .041) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .041", .028", 359° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 24.9986 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 5184-02087-1 by 456 Abnoba on 2012 Nov 13 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 21 0 0 45 45 20 17 50 48 40 168 0 45 27 26 46 3 22 44 20 40 47 12 31 - 20 0 0 45 44 34 17 50 51 40 169 -1 45 26 40 46 2 36 44 19 55 47 11 45 - 19 0 0 45 43 53 17 50 54 40 171 -1 45 25 59 46 1 55 44 19 14 47 11 4 - 18 0 0 45 43 17 17 50 57 40 172 -2 45 25 23 46 1 18 44 18 38 47 10 28 - 17 0 0 45 42 46 17 51 1 40 173 -3 45 24 51 46 0 47 44 18 7 47 9 56 - 16 0 0 45 42 20 17 51 4 40 175 -3 45 24 25 46 0 21 44 17 40 47 9 30 - 15 0 0 45 41 58 17 51 7 40 176 -4 45 24 4 46 0 0 44 17 19 47 9 9 - 14 0 0 45 41 42 17 51 10 40 177 -5 45 23 47 45 59 43 44 17 3 47 8 52 - 13 0 0 45 41 31 17 51 13 40 179 -5 45 23 36 45 59 32 44 16 51 47 8 41 - 12 0 0 45 41 24 17 51 16 40 180 -6 45 23 30 45 59 25 44 16 45 47 8 34 - 11 0 0 45 41 22 17 51 19 40 181 -7 45 23 28 45 59 24 44 16 43 47 8 33 - 10 0 0 45 41 26 17 51 23 40 183 -7 45 23 31 45 59 27 44 16 47 47 8 36 - 9 0 0 45 41 34 17 51 26 40 184 -8 45 23 40 45 59 35 44 16 55 47 8 44 - 8 0 0 45 41 48 17 51 29 40 185 -9 45 23 53 45 59 49 44 17 8 47 8 58 - 7 0 0 45 42 6 17 51 32 40 187 -9 45 24 11 46 0 7 44 17 26 47 9 16 - 6 0 0 45 42 29 17 51 35 40 188 -10 45 24 34 46 0 30 44 17 50 47 9 39 - 5 0 0 45 42 57 17 51 38 40 189 -11 45 25 3 46 0 58 44 18 18 47 10 8 - 4 0 0 45 43 30 17 51 41 40 191 -11 45 25 36 46 1 31 44 18 51 47 10 41 - 3 0 0 45 44 8 17 51 45 40 192 -12 45 26 13 46 2 9 44 19 28 47 11 19 - 2 0 0 45 44 51 17 51 48 39 193 -13 45 26 56 46 2 52 44 20 11 47 12 2 - 1 0 0 45 45 39 17 51 51 39 194 -13 45 27 44 46 3 40 44 20 59 47 12 50 0 0 0 45 46 31 17 51 54 39 196 -14 45 28 36 46 4 32 44 21 51 47 13 42 1 0 0 45 47 29 17 51 57 39 197 -15 45 29 34 46 5 30 44 22 48 47 14 40 2 0 0 45 48 31 17 52 0 39 198 -16 45 30 36 46 6 32 44 23 50 47 15 42 3 0 0 45 49 38 17 52 3 38 200 -16 45 31 43 46 7 39 44 24 57 47 16 49 4 0 0 45 50 49 17 52 6 38 201 -17 45 32 55 46 8 51 44 26 9 47 18 1 5 0 0 45 52 6 17 52 9 38 202 -18 45 34 11 46 10 7 44 27 25 47 19 18 6 0 0 45 53 27 17 52 12 38 203 -18 45 35 32 46 11 29 44 28 46 47 20 40 7 0 0 45 54 53 17 52 15 37 204 -19 45 36 58 46 12 55 44 30 11 47 22 6 8 0 0 45 56 23 17 52 18 37 206 -20 45 38 28 46 14 25 44 31 42 47 23 36 9 0 0 45 57 59 17 52 21 37 207 -20 45 40 3 46 16 0 44 33 17 47 25 12 10 0 0 45 59 38 17 52 24 36 208 -21 45 41 43 46 17 40 44 34 56 47 26 52 11 0 0 46 1 22 17 52 26 36 209 -22 45 43 27 46 19 24 44 36 40 47 28 36 12 0 0 46 3 11 17 52 29 36 210 -23 45 45 16 46 21 13 44 38 28 47 30 25 13 0 0 46 5 4 17 52 32 35 212 -23 45 47 9 46 23 6 44 40 21 47 32 19 14 0 0 46 7 2 17 52 35 35 213 -24 45 49 6 46 25 4 44 42 18 47 34 16 15 0 0 46 9 3 17 52 38 34 214 -25 45 51 8 46 27 6 44 44 20 47 36 19 16 0 0 46 11 10 17 52 40 34 215 -25 45 53 14 46 29 12 44 46 25 47 38 25 17 0 0 46 13 20 17 52 43 33 216 -26 45 55 24 46 31 22 44 48 35 47 40 36 18 0 0 46 15 35 17 52 46 33 217 -27 45 57 39 46 33 37 44 50 50 47 42 51 19 0 0 46 17 53 17 52 48 33 218 -27 45 59 57 46 35 56 44 53 8 47 45 10 20 0 0 46 20 16 17 52 51 32 219 -28 46 2 20 46 38 19 44 55 31 47 47 33 21 0 0 46 22 43 17 52 53 32 220 -29 46 4 47 46 40 46 44 57 57 47 50 1 22 0 0 46 25 14 17 52 56 31 221 -30 46 7 18 46 43 17 45 0 28 47 52 32 23 0 0 46 27 49 17 52 58 31 222 -30 46 9 53 46 45 51 45 3 2 47 55 7 24 0 0 46 30 27 17 53 1 30 223 -31 46 12 31 46 48 30 45 5 40 47 57 46 25 0 0 46 33 10 17 53 3 30 224 -32 46 15 14 46 51 13 45 8 22 48 0 29 26 0 0 46 35 56 17 53 6 29 225 -32 46 18 0 46 53 59 45 11 8 48 3 16 27 0 0 46 38 46 17 53 8 29 226 -33 46 20 50 46 56 49 45 13 58 48 6 6 28 0 0 46 41 40 17 53 10 28 227 -34 46 23 43 46 59 43 45 16 51 48 9 0 29 0 0 46 44 37 17 53 12 27 228 -34 46 26 40 47 2 40 45 19 48 48 11 58 30 0 0 46 47 37 17 53 15 27 229 -35 46 29 41 47 5 41 45 22 48 48 14 59 31 0 0 46 50 41 17 53 17 26 230 -36 46 32 45 47 8 45 45 25 52 48 18 3 32 0 0 46 53 49 17 53 19 26 231 -36 46 35 52 47 11 52 45 28 59 48 21 11 33 0 0 46 56 59 17 53 21 25 232 -37 46 39 2 47 15 3 45 32 9 48 24 22 34 0 0 47 0 13 17 53 23 25 233 -38 46 42 16 47 18 17 45 35 22 48 27 36 35 0 0 47 3 30 17 53 25 24 234 -38 46 45 33 47 21 34 45 38 39 48 30 54 36 0 0 47 6 50 17 53 27 23 235 -39 46 48 53 47 24 54 45 41 58 48 34 14 37 0 0 47 10 13 17 53 29 23 236 -40 46 52 16 47 28 17 45 45 21 48 37 38 38 0 0 47 13 39 17 53 30 22 236 -40 46 55 42 47 31 43 45 48 47 48 41 4 39 0 0 47 17 8 17 53 32 22 237 -41 46 59 11 47 35 12 45 52 15 48 44 34 40 0 0 47 20 40 17 53 34 21 238 -41 47 2 42 47 38 44 45 55 46 48 48 6 41 0 0 47 24 14 17 53 36 20 239 -42 47 6 16 47 42 18 45 59 20 48 51 40 42 0 0 47 27 51 17 53 37 20 240 -43 47 9 53 47 45 55 46 2 57 48 55 18 43 0 0 47 31 30 17 53 39 19 241 -43 47 13 32 47 49 35 46 6 36 48 58 57 44 0 0 47 35 12 17 53 40 19 242 -44 47 17 14 47 53 17 46 10 17 49 2 40 45 0 0 47 38 57 17 53 42 18 242 -45 47 20 58 47 57 1 46 14 1 49 6 24 46 0 0 47 42 43 17 53 43 17 243 -45 47 24 45 48 0 48 46 17 47 49 10 11 47 0 0 47 46 32 17 53 44 17 244 -46 47 28 34 48 4 37 46 21 36 49 14 1 48 0 0 47 50 23 17 53 46 16 245 -46 47 32 24 48 8 28 46 25 26 49 17 52 49 0 0 47 54 16 17 53 47 15 246 -47 47 36 17 48 12 21 46 29 19 49 21 45 50 0 0 47 58 11 17 53 48 15 246 -47 47 40 12 48 16 16 46 33 14 49 25 40 51 0 0 48 2 7 17 53 49 14 247 -48 47 44 9 48 20 13 46 37 10 49 29 38 52 0 0 48 6 6 17 53 51 13 248 -48 47 48 7 48 24 11 46 41 8 49 33 37 53 0 0 48 10 6 17 53 52 13 249 -49 47 52 8 48 28 12 46 45 8 49 37 37 54 0 0 48 14 8 17 53 53 12 250 -49 47 56 10 48 32 14 46 49 10 49 41 40 55 0 0 48 18 12 17 53 54 12 250 -50 48 0 13 48 36 17 46 53 13 49 45 43 56 0 0 48 22 17 17 53 54 11 251 -50 48 4 18 48 40 22 46 57 18 49 49 49 57 0 0 48 26 23 17 53 55 10 252 -51 48 8 24 48 44 29 47 1 24 49 53 55 58 0 0 48 30 31 17 53 56 10 253 -51 48 12 32 48 48 36 47 5 31 49 58 3 59 0 0 48 34 40 17 53 57 9 253 -52 48 16 41 48 52 45 47 9 40 50 2 12 60 0 0 48 38 50 17 53 58 8 254 -52 48 20 51 48 56 55 47 13 50 50 6 23 61 0 0 48 43 1 17 53 58 8 255 -53 48 25 2 49 1 7 47 18 1 50 10 34 62 0 0 48 47 13 17 53 59 7 256 -53 48 29 14 49 5 19 47 22 13 50 14 46 63 0 0 48 51 26 17 53 59 6 257 -53 48 33 27 49 9 32 .. .. .. 50 18 59 64 0 0 48 55 40 17 54 0 6 257 -54 48 37 40 49 13 45 .. .. .. 50 23 13 65 0 0 48 59 54 17 54 0 5 258 -54 48 41 55 49 18 0 .. .. .. 50 27 28 66 0 0 49 4 9 17 54 1 4 259 -55 48 46 10 49 22 15 .. .. .. 50 31 43 67 0 0 49 8 25 17 54 1 4 260 -55 48 50 25 49 26 31 .. .. .. 50 35 59 68 0 0 49 12 41 17 54 1 3 260 -55 48 54 41 49 30 47 .. .. .. 50 40 15 69 0 0 49 16 57 17 54 1 2 261 -55 48 58 58 49 35 3 .. .. .. 50 44 32 70 0 0 49 21 14 17 54 1 2 262 -56 49 3 15 49 39 20 .. .. .. 50 48 49 71 0 0 49 25 31 17 54 2 1 263 -56 49 7 32 49 43 37 .. .. .. 50 53 6 72 0 0 49 29 48 17 54 2 0 263 -56 49 11 49 49 47 54 .. .. .. 50 57 23 Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs Prediction of 2012 Oct 26.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 5184-02087-1 * constellation : Aquila * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 20 35 35.7569 DE: -04 06 31.713 * position source: mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .026, .041 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.7 * B mag [mag]: 12.1 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (456) Abnoba approx. diameter [km]: 43 approx. diameter ["]: .022 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.75000 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 25 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1090 number of rejected observations: 67 time covered by the observations: 1900 Jun 15 - 2012 Oct 25 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.012, 0.008, 74° remarks: * orbital elements for (456) Abnoba : Mean anomaly = 74.34329752 deg Arg. of pericenter = 6.83257974 deg Long. of node = 229.32769016 deg Inclination = 14.44334923 deg Eccentricity = 0.18063536 Semimajor axis = 2.78659937 AU Perihelion dist = 2.28324099 AU Mag: H = 9.05, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56244.74400000 TDT (2012 Nov 13.744) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 13 456 Abnoba 17h 51.3m UT 10.7 20 35 35.757- 4 6 31.71TYC 5184-02087-1 12.1 14.6 43 1.7 2.750 3.015 -0.04 -12.1713 -4.108 -91.72 -18.20 17.8549 0.00521 0.75976 14.10988 -0.01430 0.00552 0.00176 2000 73.338134201211 9.00000 6.832580229.327690 14.4433490.18063536 2.7865994 2.2832410 9.2 5.00.15 RATE 2.1188110 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.041 0.028 359 2.89 0.041 0 0-1-3 056226.0020121113_2087-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 25, 22:19 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org