IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (2397) Lappajarvi / HIP 19971 event on 2012 Nov 14, 19:50 UT Visible from Russia, Europe Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 14 UT, the 18 km diameter asteroid (2397) Lappajarvi will occult a 7.8 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a path across Russia, Europe. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.8 mag to 14.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.8 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: . The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 20 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 14, 19:45 - 2012 Nov 14, 19:55 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456246.3267 * magnitude of target star: 7.8 * magnitude drop [mag]: 6.8 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 1.8 * Moon: 1 % sunlit, 163° distance * Sun: 161° distance * rough path description: Russia, Europe The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 41 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 3.40 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 8.7 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .071 +/- .051) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .072", .051", 80° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 9.6278 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of HIP 19971 by 2397 Lappajarvi on 2012 Nov 14 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude 179 9 55 80 40 30 19 45 44 2 286 -14 169 54 39 80 56 24 ... .. .. .. .. .. 140 59 29 80 3 53 ... .. .. .. .. .. 154 33 3 81 31 0 19 45 52 6 262 -17 150 6 41 81 21 36 159 44 28 81 37 38 130 57 5 79 49 17 ... .. .. .. .. .. 139 31 43 81 29 3 19 45 59 8 247 -20 136 31 8 81 14 24 142 56 4 81 42 57 122 44 21 79 27 54 ... .. .. .. .. .. 128 5 50 81 11 21 19 46 6 10 236 -21 125 57 40 80 54 41 130 28 57 81 27 54 115 49 47 79 2 38 158 32 19 82 59 3 118 57 24 80 46 1 19 46 13 11 226 -23 117 25 2 80 28 37 120 39 33 81 3 33 109 54 5 78 35 3 139 32 19 83 0 28 111 26 23 80 16 38 19 46 21 12 219 -24 110 19 24 79 59 6 112 39 51 80 34 23 104 44 5 78 6 5 125 37 14 82 39 58 105 7 22 79 45 3 19 46 28 13 213 -25 104 18 48 79 27 42 106 0 13 80 2 39 100 10 24 77 36 22 114 57 3 82 9 54 99 42 57 79 12 20 19 46 35 14 207 -27 99 8 1 78 55 20 100 20 44 79 29 37 96 6 2 77 6 14 106 31 9 81 35 21 95 0 51 78 39 8 19 46 42 15 202 -28 94 36 9 78 22 33 95 27 24 78 56 0 92 25 40 76 35 58 99 40 17 80 58 47 90 52 6 78 5 49 19 46 50 16 198 -28 90 35 15 77 49 40 91 10 10 78 22 13 89 5 13 76 5 42 93 58 18 80 21 29 87 10 6 77 32 38 19 46 57 17 194 -29 86 59 19 77 16 55 87 21 39 77 48 34 86 1 27 75 35 35 89 7 28 79 44 6 83 49 52 76 59 42 19 47 4 17 191 -30 83 43 50 76 44 26 83 56 19 77 15 11 83 11 50 75 5 39 84 55 30 79 7 2 80 47 32 76 27 7 19 47 11 18 188 -31 80 45 18 76 12 16 80 49 59 76 42 10 80 34 17 74 35 59 81 13 41 78 30 28 78 0 9 75 54 57 19 47 19 19 185 -32 78 0 57 75 40 30 77 59 24 76 9 35 78 7 8 74 6 36 77 55 42 77 54 29 75 25 22 75 23 12 19 47 26 19 182 -32 75 28 37 75 9 9 75 22 2 75 37 26 75 49 0 73 37 31 74 56 55 77 19 9 73 1 17 74 51 54 19 47 33 20 180 -33 73 6 32 74 38 12 72 55 51 75 5 45 73 38 44 73 8 45 72 13 47 76 44 28 70 46 22 74 21 3 19 47 40 20 177 -34 70 53 17 74 7 41 70 39 14 74 34 32 71 35 23 72 40 18 69 43 38 76 10 27 68 39 24 73 50 37 19 47 47 21 175 -34 68 47 42 73 37 36 68 30 51 74 3 47 69 38 8 72 12 10 67 24 21 75 37 3 66 39 21 73 20 38 19 47 55 21 173 -35 66 48 47 73 7 55 66 29 37 73 33 28 67 46 18 71 44 21 65 14 15 75 4 16 64 45 20 72 51 3 19 48 2 22 171 -36 64 55 44 72 38 38 64 34 38 73 3 36 65 59 17 71 16 51 63 12 0 74 32 4 62 56 39 72 21 53 19 48 9 22 169 -36 63 7 52 72 9 44 62 45 7 72 34 8 64 16 35 70 49 38 61 16 30 74 0 26 61 12 41 71 53 6 19 48 16 22 167 -37 61 24 35 71 41 13 61 0 27 72 5 5 62 37 46 70 22 44 59 26 53 73 29 20 59 32 54 71 24 42 19 48 24 23 165 -37 59 45 23 71 13 3 59 20 4 71 36 25 61 2 26 69 56 6 57 42 22 72 58 43 57 56 51 70 56 39 19 48 31 23 164 -38 58 9 51 70 45 14 57 43 30 71 8 8 59 30 15 69 29 45 56 2 21 72 28 36 56 24 9 70 28 56 19 48 38 23 162 -38 56 37 35 70 17 46 56 10 22 70 40 12 58 0 55 69 3 40 54 26 17 71 58 56 54 54 27 70 1 34 19 48 45 24 160 -38 55 8 16 69 50 36 54 40 18 70 12 36 56 34 11 68 37 51 52 53 44 71 29 41 53 27 28 69 34 31 19 48 53 24 159 -39 53 41 37 69 23 45 53 12 59 69 45 20 55 9 48 68 12 17 51 24 19 71 0 51 52 2 55 69 7 46 19 49 0 24 157 -39 52 17 21 68 57 12 51 48 9 69 18 23 53 47 34 67 46 57 49 57 40 70 32 25 50 40 35 68 41 18 19 49 7 24 156 -40 50 55 16 68 30 55 50 25 33 68 51 44 52 27 17 67 21 51 48 33 31 70 4 20 49 20 14 68 15 7 19 49 14 24 154 -40 49 35 9 68 4 55 49 4 59 68 25 22 51 8 47 66 56 59 47 11 36 69 36 37 48 1 42 67 49 11 19 49 22 25 153 -40 48 16 50 67 39 10 47 46 16 67 59 16 49 51 55 66 32 19 45 51 41 69 9 14 46 44 49 67 23 31 19 49 29 25 151 -40 47 0 8 67 13 40 46 29 12 67 33 26 48 36 33 66 7 52 44 33 34 68 42 9 45 29 26 66 58 6 19 49 36 25 150 -41 45 44 54 66 48 24 45 13 39 67 7 51 47 22 32 65 43 37 43 17 4 68 15 22 44 15 23 66 32 54 19 49 43 25 148 -41 44 31 0 66 23 22 43 59 27 66 42 30 46 9 46 65 19 33 42 2 1 67 48 53 43 2 34 66 7 56 19 49 51 25 147 -41 43 18 19 65 58 32 42 46 30 66 17 22 44 58 7 64 55 40 40 48 17 67 22 40 41 50 51 65 43 10 19 49 58 25 146 -41 42 6 45 65 33 55 41 34 39 65 52 28 43 47 31 64 31 58 39 35 42 66 56 42 40 40 8 65 18 37 19 50 5 25 144 -42 40 56 9 65 9 30 40 23 49 65 27 46 42 37 51 64 8 26 38 24 11 66 30 59 39 30 19 64 54 15 19 50 12 25 143 -42 39 46 27 64 45 16 39 13 53 65 3 16 41 29 1 63 45 3 37 13 35 66 5 30 38 21 18 64 30 4 19 50 20 25 142 -42 38 37 33 64 21 13 38 4 45 64 38 57 40 20 58 63 21 50 36 3 49 65 40 14 37 13 0 64 6 4 19 50 27 25 140 -42 37 29 22 63 57 20 36 56 21 64 14 49 39 13 36 62 58 45 34 54 46 65 15 10 36 5 20 63 42 13 19 50 34 25 139 -42 36 21 48 63 33 37 35 48 34 63 50 51 38 6 51 62 35 49 33 46 22 64 50 19 34 58 13 63 18 32 19 50 41 25 138 -42 35 14 48 63 10 3 34 41 21 63 27 3 37 0 39 62 13 1 32 38 29 64 25 39 33 51 35 62 55 1 19 50 49 25 137 -42 34 8 16 62 46 38 33 34 36 63 3 24 35 54 55 61 50 21 31 31 5 64 1 9 32 45 21 62 31 37 19 50 56 25 135 -42 33 2 9 62 23 22 32 28 16 62 39 54 34 49 36 61 27 48 30 24 3 63 36 50 31 39 27 62 8 22 19 51 3 25 134 -43 31 56 22 62 0 13 31 22 15 62 16 32 33 44 38 61 5 22 29 17 19 63 12 39 30 33 49 61 45 14 19 51 10 25 133 -43 30 50 51 61 37 12 30 16 30 61 53 18 32 39 57 60 43 2 28 10 48 62 48 38 29 28 23 61 22 14 19 51 18 25 132 -43 29 45 32 61 14 18 29 10 56 61 30 11 31 35 30 60 20 49 27 4 26 62 24 45 28 23 4 60 59 20 19 51 25 25 130 -43 28 40 22 60 51 30 28 5 30 61 7 11 30 31 13 59 58 41 25 58 8 62 1 0 27 17 50 60 36 32 19 51 32 25 129 -42 27 35 16 60 28 49 27 0 8 60 44 17 29 27 2 59 36 39 24 51 50 61 37 23 26 12 35 60 13 51 19 51 39 24 128 -42 26 30 10 60 6 13 25 54 44 60 21 30 28 22 54 59 14 42 23 45 27 61 13 51 25 7 17 59 51 14 19 51 47 24 127 -42 25 25 0 59 43 42 24 49 16 59 58 47 27 18 45 58 52 49 22 38 55 60 50 26 24 1 49 59 28 43 19 51 54 24 126 -42 24 19 43 59 21 17 23 43 39 59 36 10 26 14 32 58 31 1 21 32 8 60 27 7 22 56 10 59 6 16 19 52 1 24 124 -42 23 14 13 58 58 55 22 37 49 59 13 37 25 10 11 58 9 17 20 25 3 60 3 52 21 50 13 58 43 53 19 52 8 24 123 -42 22 8 28 58 36 38 21 31 41 58 51 8 24 5 38 57 47 36 19 17 33 59 40 42 20 43 55 58 21 33 19 52 16 23 122 -42 21 2 22 58 14 24 20 25 11 58 28 43 23 0 49 57 25 58 18 9 33 59 17 36 19 37 10 57 59 16 19 52 23 23 121 -41 19 55 50 57 52 13 19 18 13 58 6 20 21 55 40 57 4 23 17 0 58 58 54 32 18 29 53 57 37 2 19 52 30 23 120 -41 18 48 47 57 30 4 18 10 42 57 44 0 20 50 7 56 42 50 15 51 40 58 31 31 17 22 0 57 14 49 19 52 37 22 118 -41 17 41 9 57 7 57 17 2 32 57 21 42 19 44 5 56 21 19 14 41 34 58 8 32 16 13 23 56 52 38 19 52 45 22 117 -41 16 32 49 56 45 51 15 53 38 56 59 25 18 37 29 55 59 50 13 30 31 57 45 34 15 3 56 56 30 27 19 52 52 22 116 -40 15 23 40 56 23 46 14 43 53 56 37 8 17 30 13 55 38 20 12 18 23 57 22 36 13 53 32 56 8 16 19 52 59 21 115 -40 14 13 36 56 1 40 13 33 8 56 14 52 16 22 13 55 16 51 11 5 1 56 59 36 12 42 3 55 46 4 19 53 6 21 114 -40 13 2 29 55 39 34 12 21 16 55 52 34 15 13 20 54 55 22 9 50 13 56 36 35 11 29 19 55 23 50 19 53 14 20 113 -39 11 50 10 55 17 26 11 8 7 55 30 14 14 3 29 54 33 51 8 33 48 56 13 31 10 15 11 55 1 33 19 53 21 20 111 -39 10 36 29 54 55 16 9 53 31 55 7 51 12 52 32 54 12 19 7 15 30 55 50 23 8 59 26 54 39 13 19 53 28 19 110 -38 9 21 14 54 33 1 8 37 14 54 45 24 11 40 19 53 50 44 5 55 3 55 27 9 7 41 50 54 16 47 19 53 35 19 109 -38 8 4 13 54 10 42 7 19 3 54 22 52 10 26 40 53 29 5 4 32 6 55 3 46 6 22 7 53 54 15 19 53 42 18 108 -37 6 45 8 53 48 16 5 58 40 54 0 12 9 11 24 53 7 22 3 6 13 54 40 14 4 59 57 53 31 34 19 53 50 17 106 -37 5 23 43 53 25 43 4 35 43 53 37 24 7 54 16 52 45 32 1 36 53 54 16 29 3 34 56 53 8 43 19 53 57 17 105 -36 3 59 33 53 2 59 3 9 48 53 14 25 6 35 1 52 23 36 0 3 25 53 52 28 2 6 33 52 45 39 19 54 4 16 104 -35 2 32 11 52 40 4 1 40 23 52 51 12 5 13 19 52 1 30 - 1 35 5 53 28 6 0 34 11 52 22 18 19 54 11 15 102 -34 1 1 0 52 16 52 0 6 45 52 27 42 3 48 47 51 39 13 - 3 19 49 53 3 17 - 1 3 2 51 58 37 19 54 19 14 101 -34 - 0 34 47 51 53 22 - 1 32 0 52 3 50 2 20 54 51 16 43 - 5 12 36 52 37 53 - 2 46 14 51 34 30 19 54 26 13 100 -33 - 2 16 11 51 29 26 - 3 17 8 51 39 30 0 49 2 50 53 56 - 7 16 6 52 11 39 - 4 37 3 51 9 48 19 54 33 12 98 -32 - 4 4 43 51 4 59 - 5 10 27 51 14 33 - 0 47 37 50 30 48 - 9 34 57 51 44 13 - 6 37 58 50 44 19 19 54 40 11 96 -30 - 6 2 33 50 39 48 - 7 14 46 50 48 44 - 2 30 11 50 7 13 - 12 18 7 51 14 51 - 8 53 4 50 17 44 19 54 48 10 95 -29 - 8 13 14 50 13 38 - 9 34 52 50 21 41 - 4 20 17 49 43 4 - 15 48 59 50 41 40 - 11 30 4 49 49 24 19 54 55 8 92 -27 - 10 43 8 49 45 56 - 12 20 17 49 52 37 - 6 20 18 49 18 8 ... .. .. .. .. .. - 14 47 32 49 17 48 19 55 2 6 90 -25 - 13 46 21 49 15 33 - 15 56 31 49 19 27 - 8 34 11 48 52 7 ... .. .. .. .. .. - 20 17 11 48 35 32 19 55 9 2 86 -22 - 18 13 16 48 38 25 ... .. .. .. .. .. - 11 9 19 48 24 23 ... .. .. .. .. .. Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs Prediction of 2012 Oct 26.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: HIP 19971 * constellation : Taurus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 04 16 55.1439 DE: +04 32 33.768 * position source: mpos:HIP2 pm:HIP2 plx:HIP2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .027, .025 ) * V mag [mag]: 7.8 * B mag [mag]: 8.5 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (2397) Lappajarvi approx. diameter [km]: 18 approx. diameter ["]: .015 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.60900 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 25 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 925 number of rejected observations: 20 time covered by the observations: 1938 Feb 22 - 2012 Oct 25 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.067, 0.044, 78° remarks: * orbital elements for (2397) Lappajarvi : Mean anomaly = 343.26052200 deg Arg. of pericenter = 297.45024414 deg Long. of node = 145.84480660 deg Inclination = 10.30185301 deg Eccentricity = 0.18063100 Semimajor axis = 3.08570448 AU Perihelion dist = 2.52833060 AU Mag: H = 11.02, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56245.82700000 TDT (2012 Nov 14.827) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 14 2397 Lappajarvi 19h 50.5m UT 7.8 4 16 55.144 4 32 33.77HIP 19971 8.5 14.6 18 1.8 1.609 -1.908 -8.29 72.3030 4.546 -121.47 -18.48 19.8408 -0.25287 0.86460 -5.21795 -1.51767 -0.00133 0.00142 2000 342.200981201211 9.00000297.450244145.844807 10.3018530.18063100 3.0857045 2.528330611.0 5.00.15 RATE 1.8183300 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.072 0.051 80 4.40 0.052 0 0-1-2 056226.0020121114__19971 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 25, 22:24 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org