IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (454) Mathesis / TYC 5823-00765-1 event on 2012 Nov 16, 07:27 UT Visible from W USA, Hawaii Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 16 UT, the 86 km diameter asteroid (454) Mathesis will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across W USA, Hawaii. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.2 mag to 14.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.3 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 72 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 16, 07:22 - 2012 Nov 16, 07:41 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456247.81080417 * magnitude of target star: 12.4 * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.2 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 11.3 * Moon: 8 % sunlit, 75° distance * Sun: 108° distance * rough path description: W USA, Hawaii The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 86 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.80 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 8.9 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .038 +/- .040) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .040", .038", 358° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 7.6141 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 5823-00765-1 by 454 Mathesis on 2012 Nov 16 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude -108 52 22 44 0 0 7 41 28 2 253 -63 -106 55 42 -110 40 10 ... .. .. -113 18 32 -113 2 27 43 0 0 7 41 25 5 251 -65 -111 25 59 -114 33 46 -108 38 9 -116 51 4 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude -115 0 0 42 27 41 7 41 22 7 249 -66 42 2 45 42 52 36 41 22 49 43 32 28 -116 0 0 42 10 7 7 41 21 8 249 -67 41 45 4 42 35 10 41 4 57 43 15 14 -117 0 0 41 51 50 7 41 19 9 248 -67 41 26 39 42 17 1 40 46 19 42 57 17 -118 0 0 41 32 48 7 41 17 9 247 -67 41 7 28 41 58 7 40 26 56 42 38 36 -119 0 0 41 13 0 7 41 15 10 247 -68 40 47 32 41 38 27 40 6 46 42 19 10 -120 0 0 40 52 26 7 41 13 11 246 -68 40 26 49 41 18 2 39 45 49 41 58 58 -121 0 0 40 31 4 7 41 10 12 245 -68 40 5 18 40 56 49 39 24 3 41 37 59 -122 0 0 40 8 53 7 41 8 13 245 -69 39 42 58 40 34 47 39 1 28 41 16 13 -123 0 0 39 45 53 7 41 5 14 244 -69 39 19 48 40 11 57 38 38 3 40 53 38 -124 0 0 39 22 2 7 41 2 14 243 -69 38 55 48 39 48 16 38 13 46 40 30 13 -125 0 0 38 57 20 7 40 59 15 243 -69 38 30 55 39 23 44 37 48 37 40 5 57 -126 0 0 38 31 45 7 40 55 16 242 -69 38 5 10 38 58 20 37 22 35 39 40 49 -127 0 0 38 5 16 7 40 51 17 241 -70 37 38 30 38 32 2 36 55 37 39 14 49 -128 0 0 37 37 53 7 40 47 18 241 -70 37 10 55 38 4 49 36 27 44 38 47 54 -129 0 0 37 9 33 7 40 43 19 240 -70 36 42 23 37 36 41 35 58 54 38 20 4 -130 0 0 36 40 15 7 40 38 20 240 -70 36 12 54 37 7 35 35 29 6 37 51 18 -131 0 0 36 10 0 7 40 33 21 239 -70 35 42 26 36 37 32 34 58 18 37 21 33 -132 0 0 35 38 44 7 40 28 22 238 -70 35 10 58 36 6 29 34 26 30 36 50 50 -133 0 0 35 6 27 7 40 22 23 238 -69 34 38 29 35 34 25 33 53 40 36 19 7 -134 0 0 34 33 9 7 40 17 24 237 -69 34 4 57 35 1 19 33 19 47 35 46 22 -135 0 0 33 58 46 7 40 10 25 237 -69 33 30 21 34 27 10 32 44 49 35 12 35 -136 0 0 33 23 19 7 40 4 26 236 -69 32 54 40 33 51 57 32 8 46 34 37 43 -137 0 0 32 46 46 7 39 57 27 236 -69 32 17 52 33 15 38 31 31 36 34 1 47 -138 0 0 32 9 5 7 39 50 28 235 -68 31 39 58 32 38 12 30 53 18 33 24 43 -139 0 0 31 30 16 7 39 42 29 234 -68 31 0 54 31 59 37 30 13 50 32 46 32 -140 0 0 30 50 17 7 39 34 30 234 -67 30 20 40 31 19 53 29 33 12 32 7 12 -141 0 0 30 9 8 7 39 26 31 233 -67 29 39 15 30 38 59 28 51 23 31 26 42 -142 0 0 29 26 46 7 39 17 33 233 -66 28 56 38 29 56 52 28 8 21 30 45 0 -143 0 0 28 43 11 7 39 8 34 232 -66 28 12 47 29 13 33 27 24 4 30 2 6 -144 0 0 27 58 22 7 38 58 35 232 -65 27 27 42 28 29 0 26 38 34 29 17 58 -145 0 0 27 12 17 7 38 48 36 231 -64 26 41 21 27 43 12 25 51 47 28 32 36 -146 0 0 26 24 57 7 38 37 37 231 -63 25 53 44 26 56 8 25 3 44 27 45 58 -147 0 0 25 36 20 7 38 26 39 231 -63 25 4 51 26 7 47 24 14 24 26 58 3 -148 0 0 24 46 26 7 38 14 40 230 -62 24 14 40 25 18 10 23 23 46 26 8 52 -149 0 0 23 55 13 7 38 2 41 230 -61 23 23 11 24 27 14 22 31 50 25 18 23 -150 0 0 23 2 43 7 37 50 42 229 -60 22 30 24 23 35 0 21 38 36 24 26 36 -151 0 0 22 8 54 7 37 37 44 229 -59 21 36 18 22 41 28 20 44 3 23 33 31 -152 0 0 21 13 47 7 37 23 45 229 -58 20 40 54 21 46 38 19 48 12 22 39 8 -153 0 0 20 17 22 7 37 9 46 228 -57 19 44 12 20 50 30 18 51 4 21 43 26 -154 0 0 19 19 39 7 36 54 48 228 -56 18 46 13 19 53 4 17 52 38 20 46 26 -155 0 0 18 20 40 7 36 38 49 228 -55 17 46 57 18 54 21 16 52 55 19 48 10 -156 0 0 17 20 25 7 36 22 51 227 -54 16 46 26 17 54 22 15 51 58 18 48 36 -157 0 0 16 18 55 7 36 6 52 227 -53 15 44 40 16 53 8 14 49 47 17 47 48 -158 0 0 15 16 12 7 35 49 54 227 -51 14 41 42 15 50 41 13 46 24 16 45 46 -159 0 0 14 12 19 7 35 31 55 227 -50 13 37 33 14 47 2 12 41 51 15 42 32 -160 0 0 13 7 17 7 35 13 57 227 -49 12 32 17 13 42 15 11 36 11 14 38 8 -161 0 0 12 1 9 7 34 55 58 227 -48 11 25 55 12 36 21 10 29 27 13 32 36 -162 0 0 10 53 59 7 34 35 60 226 -46 10 18 31 11 29 24 9 21 42 12 26 1 -163 0 0 9 45 49 7 34 16 61 226 -45 9 10 9 10 21 27 8 12 59 11 18 24 -164 0 0 8 36 44 7 33 55 63 226 -44 8 0 52 9 12 34 7 3 24 10 9 50 -165 0 0 7 26 48 7 33 35 64 226 -42 6 50 45 8 2 49 5 52 59 9 0 22 -166 0 0 6 16 5 7 33 14 66 227 -41 5 39 52 6 52 16 4 41 50 7 50 5 -167 0 0 5 4 40 7 32 52 67 227 -39 4 28 18 5 41 0 3 30 2 6 39 4 -168 0 0 3 52 39 7 32 30 69 227 -38 3 16 9 4 29 6 2 17 41 5 27 23 -169 0 0 2 40 6 7 32 8 71 227 -36 2 3 30 3 16 41 1 4 51 4 15 9 -170 0 0 1 27 9 7 31 45 72 228 -35 0 50 27 2 3 49 - 0 8 21 3 2 26 -171 0 0 0 13 52 7 31 22 74 228 -34 - 0 22 54 0 50 37 - 1 21 48 1 49 21 -172 0 0 - 0 59 38 7 30 59 76 229 -32 - 1 36 27 - 0 22 50 - 2 35 25 0 35 59 -173 0 0 - 2 13 14 7 30 36 77 230 -31 - 2 50 5 - 1 36 25 - 3 49 5 - 0 37 32 -174 0 0 - 3 26 50 7 30 12 79 231 -29 - 4 3 41 - 2 50 1 - 5 2 42 - 1 51 7 -175 0 0 - 4 40 21 7 29 49 80 233 -28 - 5 17 11 - 4 3 32 - 6 16 10 - 3 4 40 -176 0 0 - 5 53 38 7 29 25 82 235 -26 - 6 30 26 - 5 16 52 - 7 29 21 - 4 18 3 -177 0 0 - 7 6 37 7 29 2 84 238 -25 - 7 43 21 - 6 29 54 - 8 42 10 - 5 31 10 -178 0 0 - 8 19 11 7 28 38 85 244 -23 - 8 55 50 - 7 42 33 - 9 54 31 - 6 43 56 -179 0 0 - 9 31 13 7 28 15 87 254 -22 -10 7 46 - 8 54 41 -11 6 17 - 7 56 15 -180 0 0 -10 42 39 7 27 51 88 277 -20 -11 19 5 -10 6 14 -12 17 24 - 9 7 59 179 0 0 -11 53 23 7 27 28 88 323 -19 -12 29 40 -11 17 7 -13 27 45 -10 19 5 178 0 0 -13 3 19 7 27 5 87 360 -17 -13 39 27 -12 27 12 -14 37 16 -11 29 25 177 0 0 -14 12 23 7 26 42 86 16 -16 -14 48 20 -13 36 27 -15 45 52 -12 38 57 176 0 0 -15 20 31 7 26 19 85 24 -14 -15 56 16 -14 44 46 -16 53 29 -13 47 34 175 0 0 -16 27 38 7 25 57 83 28 -13 -17 3 10 -15 52 5 -18 0 3 -14 55 13 174 0 0 -17 33 40 7 25 35 82 31 -12 -18 8 59 -16 58 20 -19 5 31 -16 1 49 173 0 0 -18 38 35 7 25 14 80 34 -10 -19 13 40 -18 3 29 -20 9 49 -17 7 20 172 0 0 -19 42 19 7 24 52 79 35 -9 -20 17 10 -19 7 28 -21 12 55 -18 11 42 171 0 0 -20 44 50 7 24 32 77 37 -7 -21 19 25 -20 10 14 -22 14 47 -19 14 52 170 0 0 -21 46 6 7 24 11 76 38 -6 -22 20 26 -21 11 45 -23 15 22 -20 16 48 169 0 0 -22 46 5 7 23 51 74 39 -5 -23 20 8 -22 12 0 -24 14 39 -21 17 29 168 0 0 -23 44 45 7 23 32 73 40 -3 -24 18 33 -23 10 57 -25 12 36 -22 16 52 167 0 0 -24 42 6 7 23 13 72 41 -2 -25 15 37 -24 8 35 -26 9 14 -23 14 57 166 0 0 -25 38 7 7 22 54 70 42 -1 -26 11 21 -25 4 53 -27 4 31 -24 11 41 Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs Prediction of 2012 Oct 8.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 5823-00765-1 * constellation : Aquarius * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 23 01 25.7178 DE: -10 26 41.222 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .035, .038 ) * V mag [mag]: 12.4 * B mag [mag]: 13.3 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (454) Mathesis approx. diameter [km]: 86 approx. diameter ["]: .049 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.40800 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 07 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1053 number of rejected observations: 132 time covered by the observations: 1900 Mar 31 - 2012 Oct 02 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.015, 0.011, 63° remarks: * orbital elements for (454) Mathesis : Mean anomaly = 145.20212480 deg Arg. of pericenter = 177.28778597 deg Long. of node = 32.41532608 deg Inclination = 6.29673948 deg Eccentricity = 0.11130786 Semimajor axis = 2.62662593 AU Perihelion dist = 2.33426182 AU Mag: H = 9.17, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56247.31100000 TDT (2012 Nov 16.311) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 16 454 Mathesis 7h 27.6m UT 12.4 23 1 25.718-10 26 41.22TYC 5823-00765-1 13.3 14.4 86 11.3 2.408 0.725 11.51 177.6899 -10.448 64.32 -18.86 7.4593 0.02358 -0.02023 2.92409 3.14944 0.00516 0.00229 2000 143.509411201211 9.00000177.287786 32.415326 6.2967390.11130786 2.6266259 2.3342618 9.2 5.00.15 RATE 2.3152970 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.040 0.038 358 1.80 0.039 0 0-2-2 056208.0020121116_0765-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 07, 20:45 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org