IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (19) Fortuna / HIP 100334 event on 2012 Nov 17, 08:09 UT Visible from Pacific Ocean Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 17 UT, the 230 km diameter asteroid (19) Fortuna will occult a 7.9 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across Pacific Ocean. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.1 mag to 12.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.9 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: . The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 100 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 17, 08:10 - 2012 Nov 17, 08:12 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456248.8398125 * magnitude of target star: 7.9 * magnitude drop [mag]: 4.1 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 7.9 * Moon: 16 % sunlit, 21° distance * Sun: 68° distance * rough path description: Pacific Ocean The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 262 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.13 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 1.1 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .019 +/- .017) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .019", .017", 89° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 29.2178 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of HIP 100334 by 19 Fortuna on 2012 Nov 17 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 139 0 0 14 57 56 8 10 30 55 202 -1 13 43 34 16 13 14 13 24 23 16 32 58 140 0 0 15 17 13 8 10 34 54 203 -2 14 2 43 16 32 38 13 43 30 16 52 25 141 0 0 15 36 48 8 10 38 53 204 -3 14 22 11 16 52 21 14 2 56 17 12 10 142 0 0 15 56 41 8 10 41 53 206 -4 14 41 57 17 12 22 14 22 40 17 32 13 143 0 0 16 16 52 8 10 45 52 207 -5 15 2 0 17 32 41 14 42 41 17 52 33 144 0 0 16 37 20 8 10 48 51 208 -6 15 22 21 17 53 17 15 3 0 18 13 11 145 0 0 16 58 5 8 10 52 50 209 -7 15 42 58 18 14 9 15 23 36 18 34 5 146 0 0 17 19 6 8 10 55 49 210 -8 16 3 52 18 35 17 15 44 27 18 55 16 147 0 0 17 40 22 8 10 58 49 211 -9 16 25 1 18 56 41 16 5 35 19 16 42 148 0 0 18 1 54 8 11 2 48 212 -10 16 46 26 19 18 20 16 26 58 19 38 23 149 0 0 18 23 40 8 11 5 47 213 -11 17 8 5 19 40 14 16 48 35 20 0 18 150 0 0 18 45 41 8 11 8 46 214 -12 17 29 59 20 2 21 17 10 27 20 22 28 151 0 0 19 7 54 8 11 12 45 215 -13 17 52 6 20 24 42 17 32 32 20 44 51 152 0 0 19 30 21 8 11 15 45 216 -14 18 14 25 20 47 16 17 54 50 21 7 26 153 0 0 19 53 0 8 11 18 44 217 -15 18 36 58 21 10 2 18 17 21 21 30 14 154 0 0 20 15 51 8 11 21 43 218 -16 18 59 42 21 32 59 18 40 3 21 53 13 155 0 0 20 38 52 8 11 24 42 219 -17 19 22 37 21 56 7 19 2 57 22 16 23 156 0 0 21 2 4 8 11 27 41 219 -18 19 45 43 22 19 26 19 26 2 22 39 43 157 0 0 21 25 26 8 11 30 40 220 -19 20 8 59 22 42 54 19 49 16 23 3 13 158 0 0 21 48 58 8 11 32 39 221 -20 20 32 25 23 6 31 20 12 40 23 26 52 159 0 0 22 12 38 8 11 35 38 222 -21 20 55 59 23 30 17 20 36 13 23 50 39 160 0 0 22 36 25 8 11 38 37 222 -22 21 19 42 23 54 10 20 59 54 24 14 34 161 0 0 23 0 20 8 11 41 36 223 -23 21 43 31 24 18 11 21 23 43 24 38 36 162 0 0 23 24 22 8 11 43 35 224 -24 22 7 28 24 42 17 21 47 38 25 2 44 163 0 0 23 48 30 8 11 46 35 224 -25 22 31 31 25 6 30 22 11 40 25 26 58 164 0 0 24 12 43 8 11 48 34 225 -26 22 55 39 25 30 48 22 35 47 25 51 17 165 0 0 24 37 0 8 11 50 33 226 -27 23 19 53 25 55 10 22 59 59 26 15 40 166 0 0 25 1 22 8 11 53 32 226 -28 23 44 10 26 19 35 23 24 15 26 40 7 167 0 0 25 25 46 8 11 55 31 227 -29 24 8 31 26 44 4 23 48 36 27 4 36 168 0 0 25 50 14 8 11 57 30 228 -30 24 32 55 27 8 35 24 12 59 27 29 9 169 0 0 26 14 43 8 11 59 29 228 -31 24 57 21 27 33 8 24 37 24 27 53 42 170 0 0 26 39 14 8 12 1 28 229 -32 25 21 49 27 57 42 25 1 51 28 18 17 171 0 0 27 3 45 8 12 3 27 229 -33 25 46 18 28 22 16 25 26 19 28 42 52 172 0 0 27 28 17 8 12 5 26 230 -34 26 10 46 28 46 50 25 50 47 29 7 27 173 0 0 27 52 47 8 12 7 25 231 -35 26 35 15 29 11 23 26 15 15 29 32 0 174 0 0 28 17 17 8 12 9 24 231 -35 26 59 42 29 35 54 26 39 42 29 56 32 175 0 0 28 41 44 8 12 11 23 232 -36 27 24 8 30 0 23 27 4 7 30 21 1 176 0 0 29 6 9 8 12 12 22 232 -37 27 48 31 30 24 49 27 28 30 30 45 28 177 0 0 29 30 30 8 12 14 21 233 -38 28 12 52 30 49 12 27 52 50 31 9 50 178 0 0 29 54 48 8 12 15 20 234 -39 28 37 9 31 13 30 28 17 7 31 34 9 179 0 0 30 19 1 8 12 17 19 234 -40 29 1 21 31 37 43 28 41 20 31 58 22 180 0 0 30 43 9 8 12 18 19 235 -41 29 25 29 32 1 52 29 5 27 32 22 31 -179 0 0 31 7 11 8 12 19 18 235 -42 29 49 31 32 25 54 29 29 30 32 46 33 -178 0 0 31 31 7 8 12 21 17 236 -43 30 13 28 32 49 49 29 53 26 33 10 28 -177 0 0 31 54 56 8 12 22 16 236 -43 30 37 18 33 13 37 30 17 16 33 34 16 -176 0 0 32 18 38 8 12 23 15 237 -44 31 1 1 33 37 18 30 40 59 33 57 56 -175 0 0 32 42 11 8 12 24 14 238 -45 31 24 36 34 0 50 31 4 35 34 21 28 -174 0 0 33 5 37 8 12 25 13 238 -46 31 48 3 34 24 14 31 28 2 34 44 51 -173 0 0 33 28 53 8 12 26 12 239 -47 32 11 21 34 47 28 31 51 21 35 8 5 -172 0 0 33 51 59 8 12 26 11 239 -47 32 34 30 35 10 32 32 14 30 35 31 9 -171 0 0 34 14 56 8 12 27 10 240 -48 32 57 29 35 33 27 32 37 30 35 54 2 -170 0 0 34 37 42 8 12 28 9 240 -49 33 20 18 35 56 10 33 0 20 36 16 45 -169 0 0 35 0 18 8 12 28 8 241 -50 33 42 56 36 18 42 33 22 59 36 39 16 -168 0 0 35 22 41 8 12 29 7 242 -50 34 5 23 36 41 2 33 45 27 37 1 35 -167 0 0 35 44 53 8 12 29 7 242 -51 34 27 39 37 3 11 34 7 43 37 23 43 -166 0 0 36 6 53 8 12 30 6 243 -52 34 49 42 37 25 6 34 29 48 37 45 38 -165 0 0 36 28 40 8 12 30 5 243 -52 35 11 34 37 46 49 34 51 40 38 7 19 -164 0 0 36 50 14 8 12 30 4 244 -53 35 33 12 38 8 19 35 13 20 38 28 48 -163 0 0 37 11 35 8 12 31 3 245 -54 35 54 37 38 29 35 35 34 46 38 50 3 -162 0 0 37 32 42 8 12 31 2 245 -54 36 15 49 38 50 37 35 55 59 39 11 3 -161 0 0 37 53 35 8 12 31 1 246 -55 36 36 47 39 11 25 36 16 58 39 31 50 -160 0 0 38 14 13 8 12 31 0 246 -55 36 57 30 .. .. .. 36 37 43 .. .. .. Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs Prediction of 2012 Oct 26.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: HIP 100334 * constellation : Capricornus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 20 20 53.6078 DE: -18 09 22.746 * position source: mpos:HIP2 pm:HIP2 plx:HIP2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .018, .016 ) * V mag [mag]: 7.9 * B mag [mag]: 8.3 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (19) Fortuna approx. diameter [km]: 230 approx. diameter ["]: .132 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.41100 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 25 source of used astrometry: FASTT TMO MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1894 number of rejected observations: 263 time covered by the observations: 1900 Feb 12 - 2012 Oct 19 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.006, 0.005, 77° remarks: * orbital elements for (19) Fortuna : Mean anomaly = 309.54555023 deg Arg. of pericenter = 182.37892864 deg Long. of node = 211.23488627 deg Inclination = 1.57340089 deg Eccentricity = 0.15782999 Semimajor axis = 2.44190125 AU Perihelion dist = 2.05649599 AU Mag: H = 7.17, G = 0.10 Epoch of elements : MJD 56248.34000000 TDT (2012 Nov 17.340) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 17 19 Fortuna 8h 9.3m UT 7.9 20 20 53.608-18 9 22.75HIP 100334 8.3 12.0 230 7.9 2.411 4.129 12.39 126.0999 -18.159 53.93 -19.11 8.1555 -0.09881 0.46995 16.13748 3.39798 0.00509 0.00125 2000 307.391390201211 9.00000182.378929211.234886 1.5734010.15782999 2.4419013 2.0564960 7.1 5.00.10 RATE 2.5829260 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.019 0.017 89 1.13 0.017 0 0-2 4 056226.0020121117_100334 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 25, 22:31 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org