IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (168) Sibylla / HIP 104465 event on 2012 Nov 25, 01:26 UT Visible from SE USA, Mexico Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 25 UT, the 147 km diameter asteroid (168) Sibylla will occult a 9.3 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across SE USA, Mexico. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.7 mag to 14.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.8 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 97 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 25, 01:27 - 2012 Nov 25, 01:30 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456256.560125 * magnitude of target star: 9.3 * magnitude drop [mag]: 4.7 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 5.8 * Moon: 89 % sunlit, 69° distance * Sun: 73° distance * rough path description: SE USA, Mexico The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 163 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.39 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.5 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .027 +/- .024) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .027", .024", 85° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 25.2959 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of HIP 104465 by 168 Sibylla on 2012 Nov 25 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude -121 0 0 15 25 13 1 27 30 61 196 0 14 39 37 16 11 6 14 4 15 16 47 7 -120 0 0 15 41 5 1 27 35 61 197 -1 14 55 27 16 27 1 14 20 3 17 3 4 -119 0 0 15 57 10 1 27 39 60 199 -2 15 11 29 16 43 8 14 36 3 17 19 13 -118 0 0 16 13 27 1 27 43 59 201 -3 15 27 43 16 59 28 14 52 15 17 35 35 -117 0 0 16 29 55 1 27 48 59 203 -4 15 44 9 17 15 59 15 8 40 17 52 8 -116 0 0 16 46 36 1 27 52 58 204 -5 16 0 47 17 32 42 15 25 15 18 8 53 -115 0 0 17 3 27 1 27 56 57 206 -6 16 17 36 17 49 36 15 42 2 18 25 49 -114 0 0 17 20 29 1 28 0 57 207 -7 16 34 36 18 6 40 15 59 0 18 42 55 -113 0 0 17 37 41 1 28 4 56 208 -8 16 51 46 18 23 55 16 16 8 19 0 12 -112 0 0 17 55 3 1 28 8 55 210 -9 17 9 5 18 41 20 16 33 26 19 17 38 -111 0 0 18 12 35 1 28 12 55 211 -10 17 26 35 18 58 53 16 50 54 19 35 14 -110 0 0 18 30 15 1 28 16 54 212 -11 17 44 13 19 16 36 17 8 30 19 52 59 -109 0 0 18 48 5 1 28 20 53 214 -12 18 2 0 19 34 28 17 26 16 20 10 52 -108 0 0 19 6 2 1 28 24 52 215 -13 18 19 55 19 52 27 17 44 9 20 28 53 -107 0 0 19 24 7 1 28 28 51 216 -14 18 37 58 20 10 34 18 2 11 20 47 2 -106 0 0 19 42 19 1 28 32 51 217 -15 18 56 8 20 28 48 18 20 19 21 5 17 -105 0 0 20 0 38 1 28 35 50 218 -16 19 14 26 20 47 9 18 38 35 21 23 40 -104 0 0 20 19 4 1 28 39 49 219 -17 19 32 49 21 5 37 18 56 57 21 42 9 -103 0 0 20 37 35 1 28 43 48 220 -18 19 51 19 21 24 10 19 15 26 22 0 43 -102 0 0 20 56 12 1 28 46 47 221 -19 20 9 54 21 42 48 19 34 0 22 19 23 -101 0 0 21 14 54 1 28 50 46 222 -20 20 28 34 22 1 32 19 52 39 22 38 8 -100 0 0 21 33 40 1 28 53 46 223 -21 20 47 19 22 20 20 20 11 22 22 56 57 - 99 0 0 21 52 30 1 28 57 45 223 -22 21 6 8 22 39 12 20 30 10 23 15 50 - 98 0 0 22 11 25 1 29 0 44 224 -23 21 25 1 22 58 7 20 49 2 23 34 46 - 97 0 0 22 30 22 1 29 4 43 225 -24 21 43 57 23 17 5 21 7 57 23 53 46 - 96 0 0 22 49 22 1 29 7 42 226 -25 22 2 56 23 36 6 21 26 55 24 12 48 - 95 0 0 23 8 24 1 29 10 41 227 -26 22 21 57 23 55 10 21 45 55 24 31 52 - 94 0 0 23 27 28 1 29 13 40 227 -27 22 41 0 24 14 14 22 4 58 24 50 57 - 93 0 0 23 46 33 1 29 16 39 228 -28 23 0 4 24 33 20 22 24 1 25 10 4 - 92 0 0 24 5 39 1 29 19 38 229 -29 23 19 9 24 52 27 22 43 6 25 29 11 - 91 0 0 24 24 45 1 29 22 38 230 -30 23 38 15 25 11 34 23 2 11 25 48 19 - 90 0 0 24 43 52 1 29 25 37 230 -31 23 57 21 25 30 41 23 21 17 26 7 26 - 89 0 0 25 2 57 1 29 28 36 231 -32 24 16 26 25 49 47 23 40 22 26 26 33 - 88 0 0 25 22 2 1 29 31 35 232 -33 24 35 31 26 8 53 23 59 26 26 45 38 - 87 0 0 25 41 6 1 29 33 34 232 -34 24 54 34 26 27 56 24 18 29 27 4 42 - 86 0 0 26 0 7 1 29 36 33 233 -35 25 13 35 26 46 58 24 37 30 27 23 44 - 85 0 0 26 19 7 1 29 38 32 233 -36 25 32 35 27 5 57 24 56 30 27 42 43 - 84 0 0 26 38 3 1 29 41 31 234 -37 25 51 31 27 24 54 25 15 26 28 1 40 - 83 0 0 26 56 56 1 29 43 30 235 -38 26 10 25 27 43 47 25 34 20 28 20 33 - 82 0 0 27 15 46 1 29 45 29 235 -39 26 29 15 28 2 36 25 53 10 28 39 22 - 81 0 0 27 34 32 1 29 48 28 236 -39 26 48 1 28 21 22 26 11 57 28 58 7 - 80 0 0 27 53 14 1 29 50 28 237 -40 27 6 43 28 40 3 26 30 39 29 16 48 - 79 0 0 28 11 50 1 29 52 27 237 -41 27 25 20 28 58 39 26 49 17 29 35 23 - 78 0 0 28 30 22 1 29 54 26 238 -42 27 43 53 29 17 10 27 7 50 29 53 53 - 77 0 0 28 48 48 1 29 56 25 238 -43 28 2 19 29 35 35 27 26 17 30 12 18 - 76 0 0 29 7 8 1 29 58 24 239 -44 28 20 40 29 53 54 27 44 38 30 30 36 - 75 0 0 29 25 21 1 30 0 23 239 -45 28 38 55 30 12 6 28 2 54 30 48 48 - 74 0 0 29 43 28 1 30 1 22 240 -46 28 57 3 30 30 12 28 21 3 31 6 53 - 73 0 0 30 1 28 1 30 3 21 241 -47 29 15 4 30 48 11 28 39 5 31 24 51 - 72 0 0 30 19 20 1 30 5 20 241 -47 29 32 57 31 6 2 28 56 59 31 42 41 - 71 0 0 30 37 5 1 30 6 19 242 -48 29 50 44 31 23 45 29 14 46 32 0 23 - 70 0 0 30 54 42 1 30 7 18 242 -49 30 8 22 31 41 20 29 32 26 32 17 57 - 69 0 0 31 12 10 1 30 9 18 243 -50 30 25 51 31 58 47 29 49 56 32 35 22 - 68 0 0 31 29 29 1 30 10 17 243 -51 30 43 13 32 16 5 30 7 19 32 52 39 - 67 0 0 31 46 40 1 30 11 16 244 -52 31 0 25 32 33 14 30 24 32 33 9 46 - 66 0 0 32 3 41 1 30 13 15 245 -52 31 17 28 32 50 13 30 41 37 33 26 44 - 65 0 0 32 20 33 1 30 14 14 245 -53 31 34 21 33 7 3 30 58 32 33 43 33 - 64 0 0 32 37 15 1 30 15 13 246 -54 31 51 5 33 23 43 31 15 17 34 0 11 - 63 0 0 32 53 46 1 30 16 12 246 -55 32 7 38 33 40 12 31 31 52 34 16 39 - 62 0 0 33 10 7 1 30 16 11 247 -56 32 24 2 33 56 31 31 48 16 34 32 56 - 61 0 0 33 26 18 1 30 17 10 247 -56 32 40 14 34 12 40 32 4 31 34 49 3 - 60 0 0 33 42 17 1 30 18 10 248 -57 32 56 16 34 28 37 32 20 34 35 4 59 - 59 0 0 33 58 6 1 30 19 9 248 -58 33 12 7 34 44 23 32 36 26 35 20 43 - 58 0 0 34 13 43 1 30 19 8 249 -59 33 27 46 34 59 58 32 52 8 35 36 16 - 57 0 0 34 29 8 1 30 20 7 250 -59 33 43 14 35 15 21 33 7 37 35 51 37 - 56 0 0 34 44 22 1 30 20 6 250 -60 33 58 30 35 30 32 33 22 55 36 6 46 - 55 0 0 34 59 24 1 30 21 5 251 -61 34 13 34 35 45 32 33 38 1 36 21 44 - 54 0 0 35 14 13 1 30 21 4 251 -61 34 28 26 36 0 19 33 52 55 36 36 29 - 53 0 0 35 28 51 1 30 21 4 252 -62 34 43 6 36 14 53 34 7 37 36 51 1 - 52 0 0 35 43 15 1 30 22 3 252 -63 34 57 33 36 29 15 34 22 6 37 5 21 - 51 0 0 35 57 27 1 30 22 2 253 -63 35 11 47 36 43 25 34 36 22 37 19 29 - 50 0 0 36 11 26 1 30 22 1 254 -64 35 25 49 36 57 21 34 50 26 37 33 23 - 49 0 0 36 25 12 1 30 22 0 254 -64 35 39 38 .. .. .. 35 4 17 .. .. .. Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs Prediction of 2012 Nov 16.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: HIP 104465 * constellation : Aquarius * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 21 09 41.9391 DE: -12 37 54.881 * position source: Pos: UCAC4, pm: UCAC4, pi:HIP2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .022, .022 ) * V mag [mag]: 9.3 * B mag [mag]: 10.1 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (168) Sibylla approx. diameter [km]: 147 approx. diameter ["]: .061 distance from Earth [AU]: 3.34000 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Nov 16 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1079 number of rejected observations: 144 time covered by the observations: 1902 Dec 23 - 2012 Nov 07 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.015, 0.009, 75° remarks: * orbital elements for (168) Sibylla : Mean anomaly = 322.51233079 deg Arg. of pericenter = 169.37433578 deg Long. of node = 206.42515116 deg Inclination = 4.63638391 deg Eccentricity = 0.06866545 Semimajor axis = 3.37375080 AU Perihelion dist = 3.14209067 AU Mag: H = 7.92, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56256.06000000 TDT (2012 Nov 25.060) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 25 168 Sibylla 1h 26.6m UT 9.3 21 9 41.939-12 37 54.88HIP 104465 10.1 14.0 147 5.8 3.340 2.513 7.72 -128.6213 -12.634 155.11 -20.79 1.4430 -0.08693 0.42067 13.97359 2.93122 0.00543 0.00178 2000 321.54848620121119.00000169.374336206.425151 4.6363840.06866545 3.3737508 3.1420907 7.9 5.00.15 RATE 1.5905030 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.027 0.024 85 1.39 0.024 0 0 1-1 056247.0020121125_104465 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Nov 16, 08:51 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org