IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (50) Virginia / TYC 6347-01025-1 event on 2012 Dec 02, 02:07 UT Visible from SE USA, Mexico Summary ------- On 2012 Dec 02 UT, the 84 km diameter asteroid (50) Virginia will occult a 10.8 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across SE USA, Mexico. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.8 mag to 13.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.7 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 93 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Dec 02, 02:08 - 2012 Dec 02, 02:10 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456263.5882875 * magnitude of target star: 10.8 * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.8 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 2.7 * Moon: 89 % sunlit, 150° distance * Sun: 67° distance * rough path description: SE USA, Mexico The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 88 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.48 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 1.3 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .027 +/- .026) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .027", .026", 88° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 31.8341 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 6347-01025-1 by 50 Virginia on 2012 Dec 2 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude -128 0 0 8 10 5 2 8 20 62 214 0 7 44 41 8 35 33 7 20 20 9 0 4 -127 0 0 8 32 1 2 8 23 61 215 -1 8 6 35 8 57 32 7 42 13 9 22 4 -126 0 0 8 54 10 2 8 27 60 216 -2 8 28 42 9 19 42 8 4 18 9 44 16 -125 0 0 9 16 30 2 8 30 59 217 -3 8 51 0 9 42 3 8 26 35 10 6 40 -124 0 0 9 39 1 2 8 34 58 218 -4 9 13 29 10 4 36 8 49 2 10 29 14 -123 0 0 10 1 42 2 8 37 58 219 -5 9 36 9 10 27 20 9 11 41 10 51 59 -122 0 0 10 24 34 2 8 40 57 220 -6 9 58 59 10 50 13 9 34 29 11 14 54 -121 0 0 10 47 35 2 8 43 56 221 -7 10 21 59 11 13 15 9 57 27 11 37 58 -120 0 0 11 10 45 2 8 47 55 222 -9 10 45 7 11 36 27 10 20 35 12 1 10 -119 0 0 11 34 3 2 8 50 54 223 -10 11 8 24 11 59 46 10 43 50 12 24 31 -118 0 0 11 57 29 2 8 53 53 224 -11 11 31 48 12 23 13 11 7 13 12 47 59 -117 0 0 12 21 2 2 8 56 52 225 -12 11 55 20 12 46 47 11 30 43 13 11 35 -116 0 0 12 44 41 2 8 59 51 225 -13 12 18 58 13 10 28 11 54 20 13 35 16 -115 0 0 13 8 26 2 9 2 50 226 -14 12 42 42 13 34 14 12 18 3 13 59 4 -114 0 0 13 32 16 2 9 5 49 227 -15 13 6 31 13 58 5 12 41 52 14 22 56 -113 0 0 13 56 11 2 9 8 48 228 -16 13 30 25 14 22 1 13 5 45 14 46 53 -112 0 0 14 20 10 2 9 11 47 228 -17 13 54 23 14 46 1 13 29 42 15 10 54 -111 0 0 14 44 13 2 9 14 46 229 -18 14 18 25 15 10 4 13 53 43 15 34 58 -110 0 0 15 8 18 2 9 16 45 229 -19 14 42 29 15 34 10 14 17 46 15 59 4 -109 0 0 15 32 25 2 9 19 44 230 -20 15 6 36 15 58 18 14 41 52 16 23 13 -108 0 0 15 56 34 2 9 22 43 231 -21 15 30 44 16 22 28 15 6 0 16 47 23 -107 0 0 16 20 44 2 9 24 42 231 -22 15 54 53 16 46 38 15 30 9 17 11 34 -106 0 0 16 44 54 2 9 27 41 232 -23 16 19 3 17 10 48 15 54 18 17 35 44 -105 0 0 17 9 3 2 9 29 40 232 -24 16 43 12 17 34 58 16 18 27 17 59 55 -104 0 0 17 33 12 2 9 32 39 233 -25 17 7 21 17 59 7 16 42 35 18 24 4 -103 0 0 17 57 19 2 9 34 38 233 -26 17 31 28 18 23 14 17 6 42 18 48 11 -102 0 0 18 21 24 2 9 36 37 234 -27 17 55 33 18 47 19 17 30 47 19 12 16 -101 0 0 18 45 26 2 9 39 36 234 -29 18 19 35 19 11 21 17 54 49 19 36 18 -100 0 0 19 9 25 2 9 41 35 235 -30 18 43 34 19 35 20 18 18 48 20 0 17 - 99 0 0 19 33 20 2 9 43 34 235 -31 19 7 29 19 59 15 18 42 43 20 24 11 - 98 0 0 19 57 10 2 9 45 33 236 -32 19 31 19 20 23 5 19 6 34 20 48 1 - 97 0 0 20 20 55 2 9 47 32 236 -33 19 55 5 20 46 50 19 30 20 21 11 46 - 96 0 0 20 44 35 2 9 49 31 237 -34 20 18 45 21 10 29 19 54 0 21 35 24 - 95 0 0 21 8 8 2 9 51 30 237 -35 20 42 18 21 34 1 20 17 34 21 58 56 - 94 0 0 21 31 34 2 9 53 29 238 -36 21 5 46 21 57 27 20 41 2 22 22 22 - 93 0 0 21 54 54 2 9 55 28 238 -37 21 29 5 22 20 46 21 4 23 22 45 40 - 92 0 0 22 18 5 2 9 56 27 238 -38 21 52 18 22 43 56 21 27 35 23 8 50 - 91 0 0 22 41 8 2 9 58 26 239 -39 22 15 21 23 6 59 21 50 40 23 31 51 - 90 0 0 23 4 2 2 9 59 25 239 -40 22 38 16 23 29 52 22 13 36 23 54 43 - 89 0 0 23 26 47 2 10 1 24 240 -41 23 1 2 23 52 36 22 36 23 24 17 26 - 88 0 0 23 49 22 2 10 2 23 240 -42 23 23 38 24 15 10 22 59 0 24 39 59 - 87 0 0 24 11 47 2 10 4 22 241 -42 23 46 4 24 37 33 23 21 27 25 2 21 - 86 0 0 24 34 1 2 10 5 21 241 -43 24 8 19 24 59 46 23 43 43 25 24 33 - 85 0 0 24 56 4 2 10 6 20 242 -44 24 30 23 25 21 47 24 5 48 25 46 33 - 84 0 0 25 17 55 2 10 8 19 242 -45 24 52 16 25 43 37 24 27 42 26 8 22 - 83 0 0 25 39 34 2 10 9 18 243 -46 25 13 56 26 5 15 24 49 24 26 29 58 - 82 0 0 26 1 1 2 10 10 17 243 -47 25 35 25 26 26 40 25 10 54 26 51 22 - 81 0 0 26 22 15 2 10 11 16 244 -48 25 56 40 26 47 53 25 32 11 27 12 33 - 80 0 0 26 43 15 2 10 12 15 244 -49 26 17 42 27 8 52 25 53 14 27 33 31 - 79 0 0 27 4 3 2 10 13 14 244 -50 26 38 31 27 29 38 26 14 5 27 54 15 - 78 0 0 27 24 36 2 10 13 13 245 -51 26 59 6 27 50 9 26 34 41 28 14 45 - 77 0 0 27 44 55 2 10 14 12 245 -52 27 19 27 28 10 27 26 55 4 28 35 1 - 76 0 0 28 5 0 2 10 15 11 246 -53 27 39 34 28 30 30 27 15 12 28 55 2 - 75 0 0 28 24 50 2 10 15 10 246 -54 27 59 25 28 50 18 27 35 5 29 14 48 - 74 0 0 28 44 24 2 10 16 9 247 -54 28 19 2 29 9 51 27 54 44 29 34 19 - 73 0 0 29 3 44 2 10 17 8 247 -55 28 38 23 29 29 8 28 14 7 29 53 35 - 72 0 0 29 22 47 2 10 17 7 248 -56 28 57 29 29 48 10 28 33 14 30 12 35 - 71 0 0 29 41 35 2 10 17 7 248 -57 29 16 18 30 6 55 28 52 6 30 31 19 - 70 0 0 30 0 7 2 10 18 6 249 -58 29 34 52 30 25 25 29 10 41 30 49 46 - 69 0 0 30 18 22 2 10 18 5 249 -59 29 53 9 30 43 38 29 29 0 31 7 58 - 68 0 0 30 36 20 2 10 18 4 250 -59 30 11 10 31 1 35 29 47 3 31 25 52 - 67 0 0 30 54 2 2 10 19 3 250 -60 30 28 54 31 19 15 30 4 49 31 43 30 - 66 0 0 31 11 27 2 10 19 2 251 -61 30 46 21 31 36 37 30 22 17 32 0 51 - 65 0 0 31 28 35 2 10 19 1 251 -62 31 3 30 31 53 43 30 39 29 32 17 54 - 64 0 0 31 45 25 2 10 19 0 252 -63 31 20 23 32 10 31 30 56 24 .. .. .. Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs Prediction of 2012 Nov 16.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 6347-01025-1 * constellation : Capricornus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 21 18 22.7987 DE: -15 17 02.957 * position source: Pos: UCAC2, pm: UCAC2, pi: * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .026, .025 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.8 * B mag [mag]: 11.3 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (50) Virginia approx. diameter [km]: 84 approx. diameter ["]: .055 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.11100 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Nov 16 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1570 number of rejected observations: 116 time covered by the observations: 1900 Sep 20 - 2012 Oct 29 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.010, 0.007, 76° remarks: * orbital elements for (50) Virginia : Mean anomaly = 344.22043118 deg Arg. of pericenter = 200.33607859 deg Long. of node = 173.61474349 deg Inclination = 2.83339726 deg Eccentricity = 0.28390083 Semimajor axis = 2.65096715 AU Perihelion dist = 1.89835538 AU Mag: H = 9.15, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56263.08800000 TDT (2012 Dec 02.088) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Dec 2 50 Virginia 2h 7.1m UT 10.8 21 18 22.799-15 17 2.96TYC 6347-01025-1 11.3 13.5 84 2.7 2.111 4.990 19.79 -143.5165 -15.289 145.58 -21.99 2.1189 -0.07980 0.29158 17.32921 4.74852 0.00472 0.00152 2000 343.51529220121129.00000200.336079173.614743 2.8333970.28390083 2.6509672 1.8983554 9.2 5.00.15 RATE 2.2834820 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.027 0.026 88 1.48 0.026 0 0-3 3 056247.0020121202_1025-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Nov 16, 09:19 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org