IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (2511) Patterson / HIP 2044 event on 2012 Dec 14, 20:45 UT Visible from Africa Summary ------- On 2012 Dec 14 UT, the 18 km diameter asteroid (2511) Patterson will occult a 9.7 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a path across Africa. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.3 mag to 17.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.3 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 25 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Dec 14, 20:44 - 2012 Dec 14, 20:53 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456276.3652 * magnitude of target star: 9.7 * magnitude drop [mag]: 7.3 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 1.3 * Moon: 4 % sunlit, 80° distance * Sun: 100° distance * rough path description: Africa The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 18 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 2.73 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 4.7 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .046 +/- .034) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .047", .032", 72° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 13.5609 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of HIP 2044 by 2511 Patterson on 2012 Dec 14 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude 48 55 46 40 0 0 20 53 40 4 259 -73 49 28 7 48 24 23 52 47 55 45 47 14 43 28 28 39 0 0 20 53 36 8 255 -74 43 52 33 43 4 47 46 12 28 41 1 54 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 42 0 0 38 40 38 20 53 34 10 254 -74 38 35 33 38 45 42 38 7 52 39 13 22 41 0 0 38 26 42 20 53 33 10 254 -74 38 21 37 38 31 47 37 53 50 38 59 33 40 0 0 38 12 7 20 53 32 11 253 -74 38 7 1 38 17 14 37 39 8 38 45 6 39 0 0 37 56 54 20 53 31 12 253 -74 37 51 46 38 2 1 37 23 47 38 30 0 38 0 0 37 41 0 20 53 29 13 252 -74 37 35 52 37 46 9 37 7 46 38 14 14 37 0 0 37 24 27 20 53 27 14 251 -74 37 19 17 37 29 37 36 51 4 37 57 48 36 0 0 37 7 12 20 53 26 15 251 -74 37 2 1 37 12 23 36 33 41 37 40 42 35 0 0 36 49 16 20 53 24 15 250 -74 36 44 3 36 54 28 36 15 36 37 22 55 34 0 0 36 30 38 20 53 22 16 249 -73 36 25 24 36 35 52 35 56 49 37 4 26 33 0 0 36 11 17 20 53 20 17 249 -73 36 6 2 36 16 33 35 37 19 36 45 14 32 0 0 35 51 13 20 53 18 18 248 -73 35 45 57 35 56 30 35 17 6 36 25 20 31 0 0 35 30 26 20 53 15 19 248 -72 35 25 7 35 35 44 34 56 8 36 4 42 30 0 0 35 8 54 20 53 13 20 247 -72 35 3 34 35 14 14 34 34 26 35 43 20 29 0 0 34 46 37 20 53 10 21 247 -72 34 41 15 34 51 58 34 11 58 35 21 14 28 0 0 34 23 34 20 53 8 22 246 -71 34 18 11 34 28 57 33 48 45 34 58 21 27 0 0 33 59 45 20 53 5 23 245 -71 33 54 20 34 5 10 33 24 44 34 34 43 26 0 0 33 35 8 20 53 2 24 245 -70 33 29 42 33 40 35 32 59 57 34 10 18 25 0 0 33 9 44 20 52 59 25 244 -69 33 4 16 33 15 13 32 34 21 33 45 6 24 0 0 32 43 32 20 52 55 25 244 -69 32 38 2 32 49 2 32 7 57 33 19 5 23 0 0 32 16 30 20 52 52 26 243 -68 32 10 58 32 22 3 31 40 43 32 52 16 22 0 0 31 48 39 20 52 48 27 243 -67 31 43 5 31 54 13 31 12 40 32 24 37 21 0 0 31 19 58 20 52 44 28 242 -67 31 14 22 31 25 34 30 43 45 31 56 8 20 0 0 30 50 25 20 52 40 29 242 -66 30 44 47 30 56 3 30 14 0 31 26 49 19 0 0 30 20 1 20 52 36 30 241 -65 30 14 21 30 25 41 29 43 23 30 56 38 18 0 0 29 48 45 20 52 32 31 241 -64 29 43 2 29 54 27 29 11 53 30 25 35 17 0 0 29 16 35 20 52 28 32 240 -64 29 10 51 29 22 19 28 39 30 29 53 39 16 0 0 28 43 32 20 52 23 34 240 -63 28 37 46 28 49 19 28 6 13 29 20 50 15 0 0 28 9 35 20 52 18 35 239 -62 28 3 47 28 15 24 27 32 2 28 47 7 14 0 0 27 34 44 20 52 13 36 239 -61 27 28 53 27 40 35 26 56 56 28 12 30 13 0 0 26 58 58 20 52 8 37 238 -60 26 53 4 27 4 51 26 20 55 27 36 58 12 0 0 26 22 16 20 52 2 38 238 -59 26 16 20 26 28 11 25 43 59 27 0 31 11 0 0 25 44 38 20 51 57 39 238 -58 25 38 40 25 50 36 25 6 6 26 23 8 10 0 0 25 6 4 20 51 51 40 237 -57 25 0 4 25 12 4 24 27 18 25 44 49 9 0 0 24 26 34 20 51 45 41 237 -56 24 20 32 24 32 36 23 47 32 25 5 33 8 0 0 23 46 7 20 51 38 42 236 -55 23 40 2 23 52 12 23 6 50 24 25 21 7 0 0 23 4 43 20 51 32 44 236 -54 22 58 36 23 10 50 22 25 12 23 44 13 6 0 0 22 22 23 20 51 25 45 236 -53 22 16 14 22 28 32 21 42 36 23 2 8 5 0 0 21 39 6 20 51 18 46 235 -52 21 32 54 21 45 17 20 59 4 22 19 6 4 0 0 20 54 52 20 51 11 47 235 -51 20 48 38 21 1 6 20 14 35 21 35 7 3 0 0 20 9 42 20 51 3 48 235 -50 20 3 26 20 15 58 19 29 10 20 50 12 2 0 0 19 23 36 20 50 56 50 234 -49 19 17 18 19 29 55 18 42 49 20 4 21 1 0 0 18 36 35 20 50 48 51 234 -48 18 30 14 18 42 56 17 55 33 19 17 35 0 0 0 17 48 39 20 50 40 52 234 -47 17 42 16 17 55 2 17 7 22 18 29 53 - 1 0 0 16 59 49 20 50 31 53 234 -45 16 53 23 17 6 14 16 18 17 17 41 18 - 2 0 0 16 10 5 20 50 23 55 234 -44 16 3 38 16 16 33 15 28 20 16 51 49 - 3 0 0 15 19 30 20 50 14 56 233 -43 15 13 0 15 26 0 14 37 31 16 1 27 - 4 0 0 14 28 4 20 50 5 57 233 -42 14 21 32 14 34 36 13 45 51 15 10 15 - 5 0 0 13 35 48 20 49 56 59 233 -41 13 29 14 13 42 22 12 53 22 14 18 12 - 6 0 0 12 42 45 20 49 46 60 233 -39 12 36 9 12 49 21 12 0 5 13 25 22 - 7 0 0 11 48 55 20 49 37 61 233 -38 11 42 17 11 55 33 11 6 3 12 31 45 - 8 0 0 10 54 21 20 49 27 63 233 -37 10 47 42 11 1 1 10 11 17 11 37 23 - 9 0 0 9 59 5 20 49 17 64 233 -36 9 52 24 10 5 47 9 15 50 10 42 18 - 10 0 0 9 3 9 20 49 6 65 233 -34 8 56 26 9 9 52 8 19 43 9 46 32 - 11 0 0 8 6 35 20 48 56 67 233 -33 7 59 50 8 13 20 7 22 59 8 50 9 - 12 0 0 7 9 26 20 48 45 68 233 -32 7 2 40 7 16 12 6 25 40 7 53 9 - 13 0 0 6 11 45 20 48 34 70 234 -30 6 4 57 6 18 32 5 27 50 6 55 37 - 14 0 0 5 13 34 20 48 23 71 234 -29 5 6 45 5 20 23 4 29 31 5 57 34 - 15 0 0 4 14 57 20 48 12 72 235 -28 4 8 7 4 21 47 3 30 47 4 59 4 - 16 0 0 3 15 56 20 48 1 74 235 -26 3 9 5 3 22 47 2 31 40 4 0 10 - 17 0 0 2 16 36 20 47 50 75 236 -25 2 9 44 2 23 28 1 32 14 3 0 56 - 18 0 0 1 16 59 20 47 38 77 237 -24 1 10 6 1 23 51 0 32 32 2 1 23 - 19 0 0 0 17 8 20 47 27 78 238 -22 0 10 15 0 24 1 - 0 27 22 1 1 36 - 20 0 0 - 0 42 52 20 47 15 80 240 -21 - 0 49 46 - 0 35 58 - 1 27 26 0 1 39 - 21 0 0 - 1 42 58 20 47 3 81 242 -19 - 1 49 52 - 1 36 4 - 2 27 34 - 0 58 25 - 22 0 0 - 2 43 7 20 46 52 82 244 -18 - 2 50 1 - 2 36 13 - 3 27 43 - 1 58 33 - 23 0 0 - 3 43 15 20 46 40 84 249 -17 - 3 50 9 - 3 36 20 - 4 27 51 - 2 58 40 - 24 0 0 - 4 43 17 20 46 28 85 255 -15 - 4 50 11 - 4 36 23 - 5 27 53 - 3 58 44 - 25 0 0 - 5 43 12 20 46 16 86 265 -14 - 5 50 5 - 5 36 18 - 6 27 46 - 4 58 40 - 26 0 0 - 6 42 54 20 46 4 87 284 -13 - 6 49 47 - 6 36 1 - 7 27 25 - 5 58 25 - 27 0 0 - 7 42 21 20 45 53 88 314 -11 - 7 49 14 - 7 35 28 - 8 26 48 - 6 57 55 - 28 0 0 - 8 41 29 20 45 41 87 345 -10 - 8 48 21 - 8 34 37 - 9 25 52 - 7 57 8 - 29 0 0 - 9 40 14 20 45 29 86 6 -8 - 9 47 6 - 9 33 23 -10 24 32 - 8 55 59 - 30 0 0 -10 38 34 20 45 18 85 17 -7 -10 45 25 -10 31 44 -11 22 45 - 9 54 25 - 31 0 0 -11 36 26 20 45 6 84 24 -6 -11 43 15 -11 29 37 -12 20 30 -10 52 23 - 32 0 0 -12 33 45 20 44 55 83 28 -4 -12 40 33 -12 26 58 -13 17 41 -11 49 51 - 33 0 0 -13 30 31 20 44 44 81 32 -3 -13 37 17 -13 23 44 -14 14 18 -12 46 45 - 34 0 0 -14 26 39 20 44 32 80 34 -2 -14 33 24 -14 19 54 -15 10 17 -13 43 2 - 35 0 0 -15 22 7 20 44 21 79 36 -1 -15 28 51 -15 15 24 -16 5 35 -14 38 41 Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs Prediction of 2012 Dec 3.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: HIP 2044 * constellation : Pisces * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 00 25 56.2089 DE: -06 04 04.142 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 plx:HIP2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .026, .020 ) * V mag [mag]: 9.7 * B mag [mag]: 10.8 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (2511) Patterson approx. diameter [km]: 18 approx. diameter ["]: .013 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.98300 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 26 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1042 number of rejected observations: 22 time covered by the observations: 1955 Mar 22 - 2012 Sep 22 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.040, 0.026, 65° remarks: * orbital elements for (2511) Patterson : Mean anomaly = 101.04405219 deg Arg. of pericenter = 189.68877672 deg Long. of node = 85.57492204 deg Inclination = 8.04898705 deg Eccentricity = 0.10358143 Semimajor axis = 2.29848004 AU Perihelion dist = 2.06040018 AU Mag: H = 12.52, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56275.86500000 TDT (2012 Dec 14.865) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Dec 14 2511 Patterson 20h 45.9m UT 9.7 0 25 56.209- 6 4 4.14HIP 2044 10.8 17.0 18 1.3 1.983 1.661 23.22 -28.9089 -6.074 -132.71 -23.27 20.7648 0.03096 -0.02814 5.58349 5.23553 0.00518 0.00241 2000 99.385187201212 9.00000189.688777 85.574922 8.0489870.10358143 2.2984800 2.060400212.5 5.00.15 RATE 2.8284140 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.047 0.032 72 3.73 0.034 0 0-1-2 056264.0020121214___2044 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 25, 23:28 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org