IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (3615) Safronov / TYC 1383-00778-1 event on 2012 Dec 17, 10:01 UT Visible from Canada Summary ------- On 2012 Dec 17 UT, the 21 km diameter asteroid (3615) Safronov will occult a 9.1 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a path across Canada. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.5 mag to 16.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.7 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 16 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Dec 17, 09:52 - 2012 Dec 17, 10:10 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456278.91693333 * magnitude of target star: 9.1 * magnitude drop [mag]: 7.5 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 2.7 * Moon: 22 % sunlit, 164° distance * Sun: 140° distance * rough path description: Canada The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 29 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 4.13 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 13.7 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .060 +/- .046) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .060", .045", 100° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 7.8325 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 1383-00778-1 by 3615 Safronov on 2012 Dec 17 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 132 0 0 54 44 16 10 10 18 0 58 -28 54 53 18 .. .. .. 56 9 0 .. .. .. 133 0 0 55 5 50 10 10 18 1 59 -28 55 14 51 54 56 51 56 30 23 .. .. .. 134 0 0 55 27 3 10 10 18 1 60 -29 55 36 3 55 18 4 56 51 25 .. .. .. 135 0 0 55 47 53 10 10 17 2 61 -29 55 56 52 55 38 56 57 12 4 .. .. .. 136 0 0 56 8 22 10 10 17 3 61 -30 56 17 20 55 59 26 57 32 21 .. .. .. 137 0 0 56 28 29 10 10 16 3 62 -30 56 37 25 56 19 34 57 52 15 .. .. .. 138 0 0 56 48 13 10 10 15 4 63 -31 56 57 8 56 39 20 58 11 47 .. .. .. 139 0 0 57 7 36 10 10 15 5 64 -32 57 16 29 56 58 44 58 30 57 .. .. .. 140 0 0 57 26 36 10 10 13 5 65 -32 57 35 29 57 17 45 58 49 44 .. .. .. 141 0 0 57 45 15 10 10 12 6 66 -33 57 54 6 57 36 25 59 8 9 .. .. .. 142 0 0 58 3 31 10 10 11 6 66 -33 58 12 21 57 54 43 59 26 12 .. .. .. 143 0 0 58 21 26 10 10 10 7 67 -33 58 30 14 58 12 39 59 43 53 57 1 3 144 0 0 58 38 59 10 10 8 8 68 -34 58 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46 - 88 0 0 58 11 5 10 0 24 47 209 -34 58 19 56 58 2 16 59 33 58 56 50 20 - 87 0 0 57 53 31 10 0 16 47 211 -33 58 2 22 57 44 40 59 16 35 56 32 34 - 86 0 0 57 35 36 10 0 7 47 212 -33 57 44 29 57 26 44 58 58 52 56 14 28 - 85 0 0 57 17 22 9 59 59 47 214 -32 57 26 16 57 8 29 58 40 49 55 56 4 - 84 0 0 56 58 48 9 59 50 47 215 -32 57 7 43 56 49 54 58 22 26 55 37 19 - 83 0 0 56 39 54 9 59 41 47 217 -31 56 48 51 56 30 59 58 3 43 55 18 16 - 82 0 0 56 20 41 9 59 33 47 218 -31 56 29 38 56 11 45 57 44 40 54 58 53 - 81 0 0 56 1 8 9 59 24 47 220 -30 56 10 7 55 52 11 57 25 18 54 39 11 - 80 0 0 55 41 16 9 59 15 47 221 -30 55 50 16 55 32 18 57 5 35 54 19 10 - 79 0 0 55 21 4 9 59 6 46 223 -29 55 30 5 55 12 5 56 45 33 53 58 50 - 78 0 0 55 0 34 9 58 57 46 224 -29 55 9 35 54 51 34 56 25 11 53 38 12 - 77 0 0 54 39 44 9 58 47 46 226 -28 54 48 46 54 30 43 56 4 29 53 17 15 - 76 0 0 54 18 35 9 58 38 46 227 -28 54 27 39 54 9 34 55 43 28 52 55 59 - 75 0 0 53 57 8 9 58 29 46 228 -27 54 6 12 53 48 6 55 22 8 52 34 25 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60 0 0 48 1 26 9 56 3 41 249 -17 48 10 34 47 52 19 49 27 8 46 38 4 - 59 0 0 47 35 45 9 55 53 41 250 -16 47 44 53 47 26 39 49 1 25 46 12 25 - 58 0 0 47 9 53 9 55 43 40 251 -16 47 19 1 47 0 47 48 35 30 45 46 35 - 57 0 0 46 43 49 9 55 34 40 253 -15 46 52 57 46 34 43 48 9 24 45 20 34 - 56 0 0 46 17 35 9 55 24 39 254 -14 46 26 42 46 8 29 47 43 6 44 54 23 - 55 0 0 45 51 11 9 55 14 39 255 -13 46 0 17 45 42 5 47 16 37 44 28 2 - 54 0 0 45 24 37 9 55 4 38 256 -13 45 33 43 45 15 32 46 49 59 44 1 33 - 53 0 0 44 57 54 9 54 55 38 257 -12 45 7 0 44 48 50 46 23 11 43 34 55 - 52 0 0 44 31 4 9 54 45 37 258 -11 44 40 9 44 22 0 45 56 15 43 8 9 - 51 0 0 44 4 6 9 54 35 36 260 -10 44 13 10 43 55 3 45 29 10 42 41 17 - 50 0 0 43 37 1 9 54 26 36 261 -9 43 46 5 43 27 59 45 1 59 42 14 18 - 49 0 0 43 9 50 9 54 17 35 262 -9 43 18 53 43 0 49 44 34 41 41 47 14 - 48 0 0 42 42 34 9 54 7 35 263 -8 42 51 37 42 33 34 44 7 18 41 20 6 - 47 0 0 42 15 14 9 53 58 34 264 -7 42 24 16 42 6 14 43 39 49 40 52 53 - 46 0 0 41 47 50 9 53 49 33 265 -6 41 56 51 41 38 51 43 12 17 40 25 37 - 45 0 0 41 20 23 9 53 40 33 266 -5 41 29 23 41 11 25 42 44 41 39 58 18 - 44 0 0 40 52 54 9 53 31 32 267 -4 41 1 53 40 43 57 42 17 2 39 30 57 - 43 0 0 40 25 24 9 53 22 31 268 -3 40 34 21 40 16 28 41 49 22 39 3 36 - 42 0 0 39 57 53 9 53 13 31 268 -3 40 6 49 39 48 58 41 21 41 38 36 14 - 41 0 0 39 30 22 9 53 5 30 269 -2 39 39 17 39 21 28 40 53 59 38 8 53 - 40 0 0 39 2 52 9 52 56 29 270 -1 39 11 46 38 53 59 40 26 18 37 41 33 Uncertainty in time = +/- 14 secs Prediction of 2012 Dec 3.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 1383-00778-1 * constellation : Cancer * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 08 31 08.4677 DE: +17 56 14.841 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .022, .021 ) * V mag [mag]: 9.1 * B mag [mag]: 10.1 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (3615) Safronov approx. diameter [km]: 21 approx. diameter ["]: .011 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.58600 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Jul 10 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1195 number of rejected observations: 19 time covered by the observations: 1930 May 25 - 2012 Mar 21 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.056, 0.040, 102° remarks: * orbital elements for (3615) Safronov : Mean anomaly = 239.94642376 deg Arg. of pericenter = 111.72535840 deg Long. of node = 134.90840815 deg Inclination = 2.10867564 deg Eccentricity = 0.12769343 Semimajor axis = 3.16197415 AU Perihelion dist = 2.75821082 AU Mag: H = 11.42, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56278.41700000 TDT (2012 Dec 17.417) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Dec 17 3615 Safronov 10h 0.4m UT 9.1 8 31 8.468 17 56 14.84TYC 1383-00778-1 10.1 16.6 21 2.7 2.586 -1.014 4.15 -108.7471 17.937 28.98 -23.37 10.0064 0.18703 0.65279 -4.24988 1.21767 -0.00375 0.00102 2000 238.470976201212 9.00000111.725358134.908408 2.1086760.12769343 3.1619742 2.758210811.2 5.00.15 RATE 1.7529380 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.060 0.045 100 5.13 0.046 0 0-3 1 056264.0020121217_0778-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Jul 10, 05:44 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org