IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (1) Ceres / TYC 1865-00446-1 event on 2012 Dec 22, 11:59 UT Visible from Japan, Russia, China Summary ------- On 2012 Dec 22 UT, the 960 km diameter asteroid (1) Ceres will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a path across Japan, Russia, China. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.0 mag to 6.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 77.3 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 100 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Dec 22, 11:51 - 2012 Dec 22, 12:07 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456283.99944167 * magnitude of target star: 12.2 * magnitude drop [mag]: 0.0 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 77.3 * Moon: 71 % sunlit, 59° distance * Sun: 174° distance * rough path description: Japan, Russia, China Additional comments ------------------- Extremely small mag drop The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 1015 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.06 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.5 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .027 +/- .048) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .048", .027", 359° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 12.4115 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 1865-00446-1 by 1 Ceres on 2012 Dec 22 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 73 0 0 32 12 7 12 7 14 6 64 -1 37 29 3 27 5 48 38 7 59 26 29 35 74 0 0 32 39 30 12 7 13 7 64 -2 37 55 46 27 33 47 38 34 38 26 57 39 75 0 0 33 6 30 12 7 12 8 65 -3 38 22 5 28 1 24 39 0 52 27 25 20 76 0 0 33 33 5 12 7 11 9 65 -3 38 48 0 28 28 38 39 26 41 27 52 39 77 0 0 33 59 17 12 7 9 10 66 -4 39 13 29 28 55 29 39 52 5 28 19 34 78 0 0 34 25 5 12 7 7 11 66 -5 39 38 34 29 21 57 40 17 4 28 46 6 79 0 0 34 50 28 12 7 6 12 67 -6 40 3 13 29 48 0 40 41 38 29 12 14 80 0 0 35 15 27 12 7 4 13 68 -7 40 27 27 30 13 40 41 5 46 29 37 58 81 0 0 35 40 0 12 7 2 14 68 -8 40 51 16 30 38 55 41 29 28 30 3 18 82 0 0 36 4 9 12 7 0 14 69 -9 41 14 38 31 3 45 41 52 45 30 28 14 83 0 0 36 27 52 12 6 58 15 69 -10 41 37 35 31 28 11 42 15 37 30 52 44 84 0 0 36 51 10 12 6 55 16 70 -11 42 0 7 31 52 12 42 38 2 31 16 50 85 0 0 37 14 3 12 6 53 17 71 -12 42 22 13 32 15 47 43 0 2 31 40 31 86 0 0 37 36 30 12 6 51 18 71 -12 42 43 53 32 38 58 43 21 36 32 3 46 87 0 0 37 58 32 12 6 48 19 72 -13 43 5 7 33 1 43 43 42 44 32 26 36 88 0 0 38 20 8 12 6 45 20 73 -14 43 25 55 33 24 3 44 3 26 32 49 1 89 0 0 38 41 18 12 6 42 21 73 -15 43 46 18 33 45 57 44 23 43 33 11 0 90 0 0 39 2 3 12 6 40 21 74 -16 44 6 15 34 7 25 44 43 34 33 32 34 91 0 0 39 22 22 12 6 37 22 75 -17 44 25 47 34 28 28 45 3 0 33 53 42 92 0 0 39 42 16 12 6 34 23 75 -18 44 44 53 34 49 6 45 22 0 34 14 24 93 0 0 40 1 44 12 6 30 24 76 -18 45 3 33 35 9 17 45 40 34 34 34 41 94 0 0 40 20 47 12 6 27 25 77 -19 45 21 49 35 29 3 45 58 44 34 54 32 95 0 0 40 39 24 12 6 24 25 77 -20 45 39 39 35 48 23 46 16 28 35 13 57 96 0 0 40 57 36 12 6 21 26 78 -21 45 57 4 36 7 18 46 33 47 35 32 57 97 0 0 41 15 22 12 6 17 27 79 -22 46 14 4 36 25 47 46 50 41 35 51 31 98 0 0 41 32 44 12 6 14 28 79 -22 46 30 40 36 43 51 47 7 11 36 9 39 99 0 0 41 49 40 12 6 10 29 80 -23 46 46 51 37 1 29 47 23 16 36 27 22 100 0 0 42 6 11 12 6 7 29 81 -24 47 2 37 37 18 41 47 38 56 36 44 39 101 0 0 42 22 18 12 6 3 30 82 -25 47 17 59 37 35 29 47 54 12 37 1 31 102 0 0 42 37 59 12 5 59 31 82 -25 47 32 56 37 51 51 48 9 5 37 17 58 103 0 0 42 53 16 12 5 55 32 83 -26 47 47 30 38 7 47 48 23 33 37 33 59 104 0 0 43 8 9 12 5 52 32 84 -27 48 1 40 38 23 19 48 37 37 37 49 36 105 0 0 43 22 37 12 5 48 33 85 -28 48 15 26 38 38 26 48 51 18 38 4 47 106 0 0 43 36 41 12 5 44 34 85 -28 48 28 48 38 53 8 49 4 35 38 19 33 107 0 0 43 50 21 12 5 40 35 86 -29 48 41 47 39 7 25 49 17 29 38 33 54 108 0 0 44 3 36 12 5 36 35 87 -30 48 54 23 39 21 17 49 30 0 38 47 51 109 0 0 44 16 28 12 5 32 36 88 -31 49 6 36 39 34 45 49 42 8 39 1 23 110 0 0 44 28 56 12 5 27 37 89 -31 49 18 26 39 47 48 49 53 53 39 14 30 111 0 0 44 41 1 12 5 23 37 90 -32 49 29 53 40 0 27 50 5 15 39 27 13 112 0 0 44 52 42 12 5 19 38 90 -33 49 40 58 40 12 41 50 16 15 39 39 31 113 0 0 45 4 0 12 5 15 39 91 -33 49 51 41 40 24 32 50 26 53 39 51 25 114 0 0 45 14 55 12 5 11 39 92 -34 50 2 1 40 35 58 50 37 9 40 2 56 115 0 0 45 25 27 12 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46 21 6 5 55 -104 0 0 11 17 21 11 51 22 14 294 -19 16 34 40 6 10 35 17 13 39 5 34 19 -103 0 0 10 45 24 11 51 19 13 294 -18 16 2 12 5 39 6 16 41 6 5 2 54 -102 0 0 10 13 38 11 51 17 12 294 -17 15 29 52 5 7 50 16 8 42 4 31 41 -101 0 0 9 42 3 11 51 15 11 294 -16 14 57 43 4 36 46 15 36 29 4 0 41 -100 0 0 9 10 41 11 51 13 9 295 -14 14 25 45 4 5 56 15 4 26 3 29 54 - 99 0 0 8 39 32 11 51 12 8 295 -13 13 54 0 3 35 21 14 32 36 2 59 23 - 98 0 0 8 8 38 11 51 10 7 295 -12 13 22 28 3 5 1 14 0 59 2 29 6 - 97 0 0 7 37 59 11 51 9 6 295 -11 12 51 9 2 34 57 13 29 36 1 59 6 - 96 0 0 7 7 35 11 51 8 5 295 -10 12 20 6 2 5 9 12 58 28 1 29 23 - 95 0 0 6 37 29 11 51 7 4 295 -9 11 49 19 1 35 40 12 27 35 0 59 58 - 94 0 0 6 7 40 11 51 6 3 295 -8 11 18 48 1 6 28 11 56 59 0 30 51 - 93 0 0 5 38 9 11 51 6 2 295 -7 10 48 36 .. .. .. 11 26 41 .. .. .. - 92 0 0 5 8 57 11 51 6 1 296 -6 10 18 41 .. .. .. 10 56 41 .. .. .. Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs Prediction of 2012 Dec 17.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 1865-00446-1 * constellation : Taurus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 05 40 48.6065 DE: +25 30 33.368 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .023, .047 ) * V mag [mag]: 12.2 * B mag [mag]: 12.1 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (1) Ceres approx. diameter [km]: 960 approx. diameter ["]: .786 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.68500 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 26 source of used astrometry: FASTT TMO MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 5554 number of rejected observations: 643 time covered by the observations: 1900 Jul 15 - 2012 Sep 30 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.014, 0.010, 78° remarks: * orbital elements for (1) Ceres : Mean anomaly = 303.12445365 deg Arg. of pericenter = 71.98942274 deg Long. of node = 80.33013956 deg Inclination = 10.59414866 deg Eccentricity = 0.07658226 Semimajor axis = 2.76933191 AU Perihelion dist = 2.55725023 AU Mag: H = 3.38, G = 0.12 Epoch of elements : MJD 56283.49900000 TDT (2012 Dec 22.499) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Dec 22 1 Ceres 11h 59.2m UT 12.2 5 40 48.607 25 30 33.37TYC 1865-00446-1 12.1 6.9 960 77.3 1.685 -2.625 8.58 173.9577 25.507 -0.09 -23.43 11.9866 0.07627 0.31589 -6.80972 1.64423 0.00057 -0.00020 2000 302.37613720121219.00000 71.989423 80.330140 10.5941490.07658226 2.7693319 2.5572502 3.3 5.00.12 RATE 2.1386590 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.048 0.027 359 1.06 0.047 0 0-5-2 056278.0020121222_0446-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 26, 00:10 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org