IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (451) Patientia / UCAC4 492-003986 event on 2023 Jan 31, 04:15 UT Visible from Canada, NW USA Summary ------- On 2023 Jan 31 UT, the 242.3 km diameter asteroid (451) Patientia will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a path across Canada, NW USA. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.82 mag to 12.23 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 13.890 seconds. This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 99 * date and approx. time of event: 2023 Jan 31, 04:09 - 2023 Jan 31, 04:21 * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2459975.67726620 * magnitude of target star: 12.09 * magnitude drop [mag]: 0.82 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 13.890 * Moon: 74 % sunlit, 29° distance * Sun: 91° distance * rough path description: Canada, NW USA The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 248 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.11 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.6 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- 0.022, +/- 0.016) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): (0.024", 0.013", 61°) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 17.4428 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC4 492-003986 by 451 Patientia on 2023 Jan 31 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude .. .. .. -31 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. 125 0 19 ... .. .. 126 35 21 ... .. .. .... .. .. .. -30 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. 130 31 32 ... .. .. 131 41 43 ... .. .. .... 129 49 7 -29 0 0 4 9 19.9 5 78 76 134 45 11 ... .. .. 135 43 28 ... .. .. .... 134 7 12 -28 0 0 4 9 22.8 8 76 74 138 17 27 129 4 48 139 8 26 127 45 57 -0.18 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 135 0 0 -27 46 6 4 9 23.6 9 75 73 -28 56 6 -26 35 45 -29 11 38 -26 20 3 -0.22 136 0 0 -27 29 38 4 9 24.6 10 75 73 -28 39 53 -26 19 1 -28 55 28 -26 3 15 -0.22 137 0 0 -27 12 25 4 9 25.8 11 74 72 -28 22 57 -26 1 32 -28 38 36 -25 45 43 -0.22 138 0 0 -26 54 28 4 9 27.0 12 74 72 -28 5 17 -25 43 17 -28 20 59 -25 27 24 -0.22 139 0 0 -26 35 46 4 9 28.3 13 73 71 -27 46 52 -25 24 17 -28 2 38 -25 8 20 -0.22 140 0 0 -26 16 18 4 9 29.8 14 73 70 -27 27 42 -25 4 31 -27 43 33 -24 48 30 -0.22 141 0 0 -25 56 4 4 9 31.4 15 73 70 -27 7 48 -24 43 58 -27 23 42 -24 27 53 -0.22 142 0 0 -25 35 4 4 9 33.0 16 72 69 -26 47 7 -24 22 38 -27 3 6 -24 6 28 -0.22 143 0 0 -25 13 16 4 9 34.8 17 72 68 -26 25 39 -24 0 30 -26 41 43 -23 44 15 -0.23 144 0 0 -24 50 41 4 9 36.8 18 71 67 -26 3 25 -23 37 34 -26 19 33 -23 21 15 -0.23 145 0 0 -24 27 18 4 9 38.8 19 71 66 -25 40 23 -23 13 49 -25 56 36 -22 57 25 -0.23 146 0 0 -24 3 6 4 9 41.0 20 71 66 -25 16 34 -22 49 15 -25 32 51 -22 32 45 -0.23 147 0 0 -23 38 5 4 9 43.3 21 70 65 -24 51 55 -22 23 50 -25 8 18 -22 7 16 -0.23 148 0 0 -23 12 14 4 9 45.7 22 70 64 -24 26 28 -21 57 36 -24 42 55 -21 40 56 -0.23 149 0 0 -22 45 33 4 9 48.3 23 70 63 -24 0 10 -21 30 30 -24 16 43 -21 13 45 -0.23 150 0 0 -22 18 1 4 9 51.0 24 69 62 -23 33 3 -21 2 33 -23 49 41 -20 45 42 -0.23 151 0 0 -21 49 37 4 9 53.8 25 69 61 -23 5 5 -20 33 44 -23 21 49 -20 16 47 -0.23 152 0 0 -21 20 22 4 9 56.8 26 69 60 -22 36 15 -20 4 2 -22 53 5 -19 46 59 -0.23 153 0 0 -20 50 14 4 9 59.9 27 68 59 -22 6 34 -19 33 27 -22 23 29 -19 16 18 -0.23 154 0 0 -20 19 13 4 10 3.2 28 68 58 -21 36 0 -19 1 59 -21 53 1 -18 44 44 -0.23 155 0 0 -19 47 19 4 10 6.6 29 68 58 -21 4 33 -18 29 37 -21 21 41 -18 12 15 -0.23 156 0 0 -19 14 31 4 10 10.1 30 67 57 -20 32 14 -17 56 20 -20 49 27 -17 38 52 -0.23 157 0 0 -18 40 49 4 10 13.9 31 67 56 -19 59 0 -17 22 9 -20 16 20 -17 4 35 -0.23 158 0 0 -18 6 13 4 10 17.7 33 67 55 -19 24 53 -16 47 3 -19 42 19 -16 29 21 -0.23 159 0 0 -17 30 41 4 10 21.8 34 67 54 -18 49 51 -16 11 1 -19 7 24 -15 53 13 -0.23 160 0 0 -16 54 14 4 10 26.0 35 67 53 -18 13 54 -15 34 3 -18 31 34 -15 16 8 -0.23 161 0 0 -16 16 52 4 10 30.4 36 66 51 -17 37 3 -14 56 10 -17 54 49 -14 38 8 -0.23 162 0 0 -15 38 34 4 10 34.9 37 66 50 -16 59 16 -14 17 20 -17 17 9 -13 59 12 -0.23 163 0 0 -14 59 21 4 10 39.6 38 66 49 -16 20 33 -13 37 35 -16 38 33 -13 19 19 -0.23 164 0 0 -14 19 11 4 10 44.5 39 66 48 -15 40 55 -12 56 53 -15 59 2 -12 38 30 -0.23 165 0 0 -13 38 6 4 10 49.5 41 66 47 -15 0 22 -12 15 15 -15 18 36 -11 56 44 -0.23 166 0 0 -12 56 4 4 10 54.7 42 66 46 -14 18 53 -11 32 41 -14 37 14 -11 14 3 -0.23 167 0 0 -12 13 8 4 11 0.1 43 66 45 -13 36 29 -10 49 12 -13 54 57 -10 30 26 -0.23 168 0 0 -11 29 16 4 11 5.7 44 66 44 -12 53 9 -10 4 46 -13 11 45 - 9 45 53 -0.23 169 0 0 -10 44 29 4 11 11.5 45 66 43 -12 8 55 - 9 19 26 -12 27 38 - 9 0 25 -0.23 170 0 0 - 9 58 47 4 11 17.4 47 66 41 -11 23 46 - 8 33 11 -11 42 36 - 8 14 3 -0.23 171 0 0 - 9 12 12 4 11 23.5 48 66 40 -10 37 44 - 7 46 2 -10 56 40 - 7 26 47 -0.23 172 0 0 - 8 24 43 4 11 29.8 49 67 39 - 9 50 48 - 6 58 1 -10 9 52 - 6 38 38 -0.23 173 0 0 - 7 36 23 4 11 36.2 50 67 38 - 9 2 59 - 6 9 7 - 9 22 10 - 5 49 36 -0.23 174 0 0 - 6 47 10 4 11 42.9 52 67 37 - 8 14 19 - 5 19 21 - 8 33 37 - 4 59 43 -0.23 175 0 0 - 5 57 7 4 11 49.7 53 67 35 - 7 24 48 - 4 28 46 - 7 44 13 - 4 9 1 -0.23 176 0 0 - 5 6 16 4 11 56.6 54 68 34 - 6 34 28 - 3 37 22 - 6 54 0 - 3 17 30 -0.23 177 0 0 - 4 14 36 4 12 3.8 56 68 33 - 5 43 19 - 2 45 11 - 6 2 58 - 2 25 11 -0.23 178 0 0 - 3 22 10 4 12 11.1 57 69 32 - 4 51 24 - 1 52 14 - 5 11 10 - 1 32 7 -0.23 179 0 0 - 2 29 0 4 12 18.5 58 70 30 - 3 58 44 - 0 58 33 - 4 18 36 - 0 38 20 -0.23 180 0 0 - 1 35 7 4 12 26.1 59 70 29 - 3 5 20 - 0 4 11 - 3 25 19 0 16 9 -0.23 -179 0 0 - 0 40 34 4 12 33.9 61 71 28 - 2 11 15 0 50 51 - 2 31 20 1 11 18 -0.23 -178 0 0 0 14 38 4 12 41.8 62 72 27 - 1 16 30 1 46 31 - 1 36 41 2 7 4 -0.22 -177 0 0 1 10 26 4 12 49.8 63 73 25 - 0 21 8 2 42 46 - 0 41 25 3 3 25 -0.22 -176 0 0 2 6 48 4 12 58.0 64 75 24 0 34 48 3 39 34 0 14 26 4 0 19 -0.22 -175 0 0 3 3 41 4 13 6.2 66 76 23 1 31 17 4 36 52 1 10 49 4 57 42 -0.22 -174 0 0 4 1 3 4 13 14.6 67 78 22 2 28 16 5 34 36 2 7 43 5 55 32 -0.22 -173 0 0 4 58 50 4 13 23.1 68 80 20 3 25 41 6 32 45 3 5 4 6 53 45 -0.22 -172 0 0 5 56 59 4 13 31.7 69 82 19 4 23 30 7 31 15 4 2 49 7 52 20 -0.22 -171 0 0 6 55 28 4 13 40.3 70 84 18 5 21 41 8 30 2 5 0 55 8 51 11 -0.22 -170 0 0 7 54 13 4 13 49.1 71 87 16 6 20 9 9 29 4 5 59 19 9 50 17 -0.22 -169 0 0 8 53 10 4 13 57.9 73 90 15 7 18 51 10 28 17 6 57 58 10 49 33 -0.22 -168 0 0 9 52 17 4 14 6.7 73 93 14 8 17 45 11 27 38 7 56 49 11 48 57 -0.22 -167 0 0 10 51 31 4 14 15.6 74 97 12 9 16 46 12 27 2 8 55 48 12 48 24 -0.22 -166 0 0 11 50 46 4 14 24.5 75 102 11 10 15 52 13 26 28 9 54 51 13 47 52 -0.22 -165 0 0 12 50 1 4 14 33.4 76 106 10 11 14 59 14 25 50 10 53 56 14 47 16 -0.22 -164 0 0 13 49 11 4 14 42.4 77 112 8 12 14 3 15 25 6 11 52 59 15 46 33 -0.22 -163 0 0 14 48 13 4 14 51.3 77 118 7 13 13 1 16 24 12 12 51 56 16 45 40 -0.22 -162 0 0 15 47 3 4 15 0.2 77 124 6 14 11 50 17 23 4 13 50 44 17 44 33 -0.22 -161 0 0 16 45 39 4 15 9.1 78 131 5 15 10 25 18 21 40 14 49 20 18 43 8 -0.22 -160 0 0 17 43 56 4 15 17.9 78 137 3 16 8 45 19 19 55 15 47 40 19 41 23 -0.22 -159 0 0 18 41 52 4 15 26.7 78 144 2 17 6 44 20 17 47 16 45 40 20 39 14 -0.22 -158 0 0 19 39 23 4 15 35.4 77 150 1 18 4 21 21 15 11 17 43 18 21 36 37 -0.22 -157 0 0 20 36 26 4 15 44.0 77 156 0 19 1 32 22 12 7 18 40 31 22 33 30 -0.22 -156 0 0 21 32 59 4 15 52.6 76 162 -2 19 58 14 23 8 29 19 37 15 23 29 50 -0.22 -155 0 0 22 28 58 4 16 1.0 76 167 -3 20 54 25 24 4 16 20 33 28 24 25 35 -0.22 -154 0 0 23 24 21 4 16 9.4 75 172 -4 21 50 1 24 59 25 21 29 7 25 20 40 -0.22 -153 0 0 24 19 5 4 16 17.7 74 176 -5 22 45 0 25 53 53 22 24 9 26 15 5 -0.21 -152 0 0 25 13 7 4 16 25.8 73 180 -6 23 39 19 26 47 39 23 18 32 27 8 47 -0.21 -151 0 0 26 6 27 4 16 33.8 72 183 -7 24 32 57 27 40 40 24 12 14 28 1 44 -0.21 -150 0 0 26 59 1 4 16 41.7 71 186 -9 25 25 51 28 32 54 25 5 12 28 53 53 -0.21 -149 0 0 27 50 48 4 16 49.5 70 189 -10 26 17 59 29 24 19 25 57 25 29 45 13 -0.21 -148 0 0 28 41 47 4 16 57.1 69 192 -11 27 9 20 30 14 54 26 48 51 30 35 43 -0.21 -147 0 0 29 31 55 4 17 4.6 68 194 -12 27 59 52 31 4 38 27 39 28 31 25 22 -0.21 -146 0 0 30 21 11 4 17 11.9 67 196 -13 28 49 33 31 53 29 28 29 15 32 14 7 -0.21 -145 0 0 31 9 35 4 17 19.1 66 198 -14 29 38 23 32 41 26 29 18 10 33 1 58 -0.21 -144 0 0 31 57 5 4 17 26.1 65 200 -15 30 26 19 33 28 29 30 6 13 33 48 54 -0.21 -143 0 0 32 43 40 4 17 33.0 64 202 -16 31 13 23 34 14 35 30 53 22 34 34 55 -0.21 -142 0 0 33 29 20 4 17 39.7 63 203 -17 31 59 31 34 59 46 31 39 37 35 19 59 -0.21 -141 0 0 34 14 5 4 17 46.3 62 205 -18 32 44 45 35 44 1 32 24 57 36 4 6 -0.21 -140 0 0 34 57 53 4 17 52.7 61 206 -19 33 29 3 36 27 18 33 9 22 36 47 17 -0.21 -139 0 0 35 40 44 4 17 59.0 60 207 -20 34 12 25 37 9 39 33 52 51 37 29 30 -0.21 -138 0 0 36 22 39 4 18 5.1 59 209 -21 34 54 52 37 51 2 34 35 24 38 10 47 -0.21 -137 0 0 37 3 38 4 18 11.1 58 210 -22 35 36 21 38 31 28 35 17 1 38 51 6 -0.21 -136 0 0 37 43 40 4 18 16.9 57 211 -22 36 16 55 39 10 58 35 57 41 39 30 28 -0.21 -135 0 0 38 22 45 4 18 22.5 56 212 -23 36 56 32 39 49 31 36 37 26 40 8 53 -0.21 -134 0 0 39 0 54 4 18 28.1 55 214 -24 37 35 14 40 27 7 37 16 14 40 46 23 -0.21 -133 0 0 39 38 8 4 18 33.4 54 215 -25 38 12 59 41 3 48 37 54 7 41 22 56 -0.21 -132 0 0 40 14 25 4 18 38.6 53 216 -26 38 49 49 41 39 33 38 31 4 41 58 33 -0.21 -131 0 0 40 49 49 4 18 43.7 52 217 -27 39 25 45 42 14 23 39 7 7 42 33 16 -0.21 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59 48 29 15 45 36 49 48 46 37 -0.21 -117 0 0 47 35 11 4 19 41.6 41 230 -36 46 18 13 48 52 33 46 1 9 49 9 49 -0.21 -116 0 0 47 58 13 4 19 44.9 40 231 -36 46 41 42 49 15 7 46 24 44 49 32 17 -0.21 -115 0 0 48 20 32 4 19 48.1 39 231 -37 47 4 28 49 36 59 46 47 35 49 54 3 -0.21 -114 0 0 48 42 8 4 19 51.2 38 232 -38 47 26 31 49 58 9 47 9 44 50 15 7 -0.21 -113 0 0 49 3 3 4 19 54.2 38 233 -38 47 47 51 50 18 38 47 31 10 50 35 30 -0.21 -112 0 0 49 23 18 4 19 57.1 37 234 -39 48 8 30 50 38 27 47 51 55 50 55 14 -0.21 -111 0 0 49 42 52 4 20 0.0 36 235 -39 48 28 29 50 57 37 48 11 59 51 14 18 -0.21 -110 0 0 50 1 47 4 20 2.8 35 236 -40 48 47 48 51 16 8 48 31 23 51 32 43 -0.21 -109 0 0 50 20 3 4 20 5.4 35 237 -40 49 6 27 51 34 0 48 50 7 51 50 31 -0.21 -108 0 0 50 37 42 4 20 8.1 34 237 -41 49 24 28 51 51 16 49 8 13 52 7 41 -0.21 -107 0 0 50 54 43 4 20 10.6 33 238 -41 49 41 51 52 7 55 49 25 41 52 24 16 -0.21 -106 0 0 51 11 8 4 20 13.1 33 239 -41 49 58 37 52 23 59 49 42 32 52 40 14 -0.21 -105 0 0 51 26 57 4 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0 55 19 54 4 21 7.6 9 272 -52 54 13 1 56 27 3 53 58 11 56 42 2 -0.23 - 66 0 0 55 17 28 4 21 8.2 9 273 -52 54 10 31 56 24 41 53 55 40 56 39 40 -0.23 - 65 0 0 55 14 36 4 21 8.7 8 273 -52 54 7 35 56 21 54 53 52 43 56 36 54 -0.23 - 64 0 0 55 11 19 4 21 9.2 7 274 -52 54 4 13 56 18 41 53 49 20 56 33 43 -0.23 - 63 0 0 55 7 36 4 21 9.7 7 275 -52 54 0 25 56 15 4 53 45 31 56 30 7 -0.23 - 62 0 0 55 3 28 4 21 10.1 6 276 -52 53 56 11 56 11 2 53 41 15 56 26 6 -0.23 - 61 0 0 54 58 53 4 21 10.5 6 277 -52 53 51 30 56 6 34 53 36 32 56 21 40 -0.24 - 60 0 0 54 53 53 4 21 10.9 5 277 -53 53 46 22 56 1 41 53 31 23 56 16 49 -0.24 - 59 0 0 54 48 26 4 21 11.2 5 278 -53 53 40 47 55 56 22 53 25 47 56 11 32 -0.24 - 58 0 0 54 42 33 4 21 11.5 4 279 -53 53 34 46 55 50 38 53 19 43 56 5 49 -0.25 - 57 0 0 54 36 13 4 21 11.8 3 280 -53 53 28 17 55 44 27 53 13 12 55 59 40 -0.26 - 56 0 0 54 29 26 4 21 12.0 3 281 -53 53 21 20 55 37 50 53 6 14 55 53 6 -0.26 - 55 0 0 54 22 12 4 21 12.1 2 282 -53 53 13 56 55 30 47 52 58 47 55 46 4 -0.28 - 54 0 0 54 14 31 4 21 12.3 2 282 -53 53 6 4 55 23 16 52 50 52 55 38 36 -0.30 - 53 0 0 54 6 22 4 21 12.4 1 283 -53 52 57 43 55 15 19 52 42 29 55 30 41 -0.36 - 52 0 0 53 57 45 4 21 12.4 0 284 -53 52 48 54 55 6 53 52 33 37 55 22 19 -0.61 - 51 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 54 58 1 .. .. .. 55 13 29 .... Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs Prediction of 2022 Dec 1.1 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC4 492-003986 * constellation : Cetus * BCRS position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 02 48 00.1006 DE: +08 23 43.863 * GCRS Astrometric position with proper motion and parallax to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 02 48 00.1006 DE: +08 23 43.862 * position source: Gaia DR3 * standard error: RA,DE [mas]: (0.100,0.100) * V mag [mag]: 12.1 * Diameter [mas]: 0.00 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (451) Patientia asteroid class: ShapeModel approx. diameter [km]: 242 approx. diameter ["]: 0.126 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.64710 asteroid position offset in RA [mas]: 0 asteroid position offset in DE [mas]: 0 * orbital information: orbit source: JPL#131 date of fit: 2022 Nov 25 source of used astrometry: MPC, JPL number of used observations: 0 number of rejected observations: 0 time covered by the observations: 1800 Jan 01 - 1800 Jan 01 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.024", 0.013", 60.68° remarks: * orbital elements for (451)Patientia : Mean anomaly = 356.6843853530 deg Arg. of pericenter = 336.5386573936 deg Long. of node = 89.0035092934 deg Inclination = 15.2053765409 deg Eccentricity = 0.0703473375 Semimajor axis = 3.0626799776 AU Perihelion dist = 2.8472285955 AU Mag: H = 6.84, G = 0.19 Epoch of elements : MJD 59975.17715278 TDT (2023 Jan 31.1772) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- JPL#1312022Nov25,13.89,2023,1,31,4.254389,-0.142579,0.156269,7.278853,6.629179,0.005663,0.001774,0.000000,0.000000 -151.6423,8.4907,119.52,-17.47,False UCAC4 492-003986,2.80002797,8.3955175,0.00,12.09,0.00,0.0,0,,2.82044576,8.4906757,0.83,0.00,0,0,0 451,Patientia,12.23,242.3,2.6471,0,0,1.631,22.02,,12.2,0 0,356.6518,2023,1,31,336.5387,89.0035,15.2054,0.07035,3.06268,2.84723,6.84,5.0,0.15 1.111,0.0237,0.0133,61,0.0140,Known errors,-1.00,-1,-1,-1 20230131_003986,59914.10 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2022 Dec 01, 02:18 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 stevepr@acm.org