IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (2651) Karen / UCAC4 561-047917 event on 2023 Feb 15, 01:09 UT Visible from S USA Summary ------- On 2023 Feb 15 UT, the 26.9 km diameter asteroid (2651) Karen will occult a 12.6 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a path across S USA. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.26 mag to 15.78 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.160 seconds. This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 59 * date and approx. time of event: 2023 Feb 15, 01:01 - 2023 Feb 15, 01:18 * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2459990.54848817 * magnitude of target star: 12.58 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.26 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 2.160 * Moon: 34 % sunlit, 125° distance * Sun: 163° distance * rough path description: S USA Additional comments ------------------- RUWE high The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 28 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 1.04 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.6 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- 0.033, +/- 0.003) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): (0.033", 0.003", 87°) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 12.4614 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC4 561-047917 by 2651 Karen on 2023 Feb 15 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude -130 0 0 23 2 29 1 18 6.5 0 66 16 23 10 42 22 54 15 23 27 46 22 37 8 .... -129 0 0 23 26 31 1 18 6.4 1 67 15 23 34 41 23 18 20 23 51 40 23 1 18 0.09 -128 0 0 23 49 44 1 18 6.1 2 67 14 23 57 52 23 41 35 24 14 46 23 24 38 0.16 -127 0 0 24 12 8 1 18 5.6 3 67 13 24 20 14 24 4 2 24 37 4 23 47 10 0.19 -126 0 0 24 33 45 1 18 5.0 4 68 12 24 41 49 24 25 41 24 58 34 24 8 54 0.20 -125 0 0 24 54 35 1 18 4.2 5 68 11 25 2 37 24 46 33 25 19 17 24 29 51 0.21 -124 0 0 25 14 38 1 18 3.3 6 69 10 25 22 38 25 6 39 25 39 13 24 50 0 0.22 -123 0 0 25 33 55 1 18 2.3 7 69 9 25 41 53 25 25 58 25 58 24 25 9 24 0.22 -122 0 0 25 52 27 1 18 1.1 8 69 8 26 0 22 25 44 31 26 16 50 25 28 1 0.23 -121 0 0 26 10 13 1 17 59.8 9 70 7 26 18 7 26 2 20 26 34 30 25 45 54 0.23 -120 0 0 26 27 15 1 17 58.3 10 70 7 26 35 7 26 19 23 26 51 27 26 3 1 0.23 -119 0 0 26 43 33 1 17 56.7 11 71 6 26 51 23 26 35 43 27 7 39 26 19 24 0.23 -118 0 0 26 59 8 1 17 55.0 12 71 5 27 6 56 26 51 19 27 23 9 26 35 4 0.24 -117 0 0 27 13 59 1 17 53.2 13 72 4 27 21 45 27 6 12 27 37 55 26 50 0 0.24 -116 0 0 27 28 7 1 17 51.3 14 72 3 27 35 53 27 20 22 27 51 59 27 4 13 0.24 -115 0 0 27 41 34 1 17 49.2 15 72 2 27 49 17 27 33 50 28 5 21 27 17 44 0.24 -114 0 0 27 54 18 1 17 47.1 16 73 1 28 2 0 27 46 35 28 18 1 27 30 33 0.24 -113 0 0 28 6 21 1 17 44.8 16 73 0 28 14 2 27 58 40 28 30 0 27 42 40 0.24 -112 0 0 28 17 43 1 17 42.4 17 74 -1 28 25 23 28 10 3 28 41 18 27 54 5 0.24 -111 0 0 28 28 24 1 17 39.9 18 74 -2 28 36 3 28 20 45 28 51 56 28 4 50 0.24 -110 0 0 28 38 25 1 17 37.3 19 75 -3 28 46 3 28 30 47 29 1 53 28 14 54 0.24 -109 0 0 28 47 46 1 17 34.6 20 75 -3 28 55 22 28 40 9 29 11 11 28 24 18 0.24 -108 0 0 28 56 27 1 17 31.7 21 76 -4 29 4 2 28 48 51 29 19 49 28 33 2 0.24 -107 0 0 29 4 28 1 17 28.8 22 76 -5 29 12 3 28 56 53 29 27 48 28 41 7 0.24 -106 0 0 29 11 51 1 17 25.8 23 76 -6 29 19 25 29 4 17 29 35 8 28 48 32 0.24 -105 0 0 29 18 34 1 17 22.6 23 77 -7 29 26 7 29 11 1 29 41 49 28 55 17 0.24 -104 0 0 29 24 39 1 17 19.4 24 77 -8 29 32 12 29 17 6 29 47 51 29 1 24 0.24 -103 0 0 29 30 5 1 17 16.1 25 78 -9 29 37 37 29 22 33 29 53 16 29 6 52 0.24 -102 0 0 29 34 53 1 17 12.6 26 78 -9 29 42 25 29 27 22 29 58 2 29 11 42 0.24 -101 0 0 29 39 3 1 17 9.1 27 79 -10 29 46 34 29 31 32 30 2 11 29 15 53 0.24 -100 0 0 29 42 35 1 17 5.5 28 79 -11 29 50 6 29 35 4 30 5 41 29 19 27 0.24 - 99 0 0 29 45 29 1 17 1.8 29 80 -12 29 52 59 29 37 59 30 8 35 29 22 22 0.24 - 98 0 0 29 47 46 1 16 57.9 29 80 -13 29 55 16 29 40 16 30 10 50 29 24 39 0.24 - 97 0 0 29 49 25 1 16 54.0 30 80 -14 29 56 54 29 41 55 30 12 28 29 26 19 0.24 - 96 0 0 29 50 26 1 16 50.0 31 81 -15 29 57 56 29 42 56 30 13 29 29 27 21 0.24 - 95 0 0 29 50 50 1 16 45.9 32 81 -15 29 58 20 29 43 21 30 13 53 29 27 45 0.24 - 94 0 0 29 50 37 1 16 41.7 33 82 -16 29 58 6 29 43 7 30 13 40 29 27 32 0.24 - 93 0 0 29 49 46 1 16 37.4 34 82 -17 29 57 16 29 42 17 30 12 50 29 26 41 0.24 - 92 0 0 29 48 19 1 16 33.0 35 82 -18 29 55 48 29 40 49 30 11 22 29 25 13 0.24 - 91 0 0 29 46 14 1 16 28.5 35 83 -19 29 53 43 29 38 43 30 9 18 29 23 7 0.24 - 90 0 0 29 43 31 1 16 23.9 36 83 -20 29 51 1 29 36 1 30 6 36 29 20 24 0.24 - 89 0 0 29 40 11 1 16 19.2 37 83 -21 29 47 42 29 32 41 30 3 17 29 17 3 0.24 - 88 0 0 29 36 14 1 16 14.5 38 84 -21 29 43 45 29 28 43 29 59 21 29 13 5 0.24 - 87 0 0 29 31 40 1 16 9.6 39 84 -22 29 39 11 29 24 9 29 54 48 29 8 29 0.24 - 86 0 0 29 26 28 1 16 4.6 40 85 -23 29 34 0 29 18 56 29 49 38 29 3 16 0.24 - 85 0 0 29 20 39 1 15 59.5 40 85 -24 29 28 11 29 13 6 29 43 50 28 57 25 0.24 - 84 0 0 29 14 11 1 15 54.3 41 85 -25 29 21 44 29 6 38 29 37 25 28 50 55 0.24 - 83 0 0 29 7 6 1 15 49.1 42 85 -26 29 14 40 28 59 32 29 30 22 28 43 48 0.24 - 82 0 0 28 59 23 1 15 43.7 43 86 -26 29 6 58 28 51 49 29 22 41 28 36 3 0.24 - 81 0 0 28 51 2 1 15 38.2 44 86 -27 28 58 37 28 43 27 29 14 23 28 27 39 0.24 - 80 0 0 28 42 3 1 15 32.7 45 86 -28 28 49 39 28 34 27 29 5 26 28 18 37 0.24 - 79 0 0 28 32 25 1 15 27.0 45 87 -29 28 40 2 28 24 48 28 55 51 28 8 56 0.24 - 78 0 0 28 22 8 1 15 21.2 46 87 -30 28 29 46 28 14 30 28 45 38 27 58 37 0.24 - 77 0 0 28 11 13 1 15 15.3 47 87 -31 28 18 52 28 3 34 28 34 46 27 47 38 0.24 - 76 0 0 27 59 39 1 15 9.3 48 87 -32 28 7 19 27 51 58 28 23 15 27 36 0 0.24 - 75 0 0 27 47 25 1 15 3.2 49 87 -33 27 55 6 27 39 43 28 11 4 27 23 43 0.24 - 74 0 0 27 34 31 1 14 57.0 50 88 -33 27 42 14 27 26 49 27 58 15 27 10 45 0.24 - 73 0 0 27 20 58 1 14 50.7 51 88 -34 27 28 42 27 13 14 27 44 46 26 57 8 0.24 - 72 0 0 27 6 45 1 14 44.3 51 88 -35 27 14 30 26 58 59 27 30 37 26 42 51 0.24 - 71 0 0 26 51 51 1 14 37.8 52 88 -36 26 59 38 26 44 4 27 15 47 26 27 52 0.24 - 70 0 0 26 36 17 1 14 31.2 53 88 -37 26 44 5 26 28 28 27 0 18 26 12 13 0.24 - 69 0 0 26 20 1 1 14 24.4 54 88 -38 26 27 51 26 12 11 26 44 7 25 55 53 0.24 - 68 0 0 26 3 5 1 14 17.6 55 88 -39 26 10 56 25 55 13 26 27 16 25 38 52 0.24 - 67 0 0 25 45 27 1 14 10.6 56 88 -40 25 53 20 25 37 33 26 9 42 25 21 8 0.24 - 66 0 0 25 27 6 1 14 3.5 57 88 -40 25 35 1 25 19 11 25 51 28 25 2 43 0.24 - 65 0 0 25 8 4 1 13 56.4 57 88 -41 25 16 1 25 0 7 25 32 31 24 43 35 0.24 - 64 0 0 24 48 19 1 13 49.0 58 88 -42 24 56 17 24 40 20 25 12 51 24 23 44 0.24 - 63 0 0 24 27 51 1 13 41.6 59 87 -43 24 35 51 24 19 50 24 52 29 24 3 10 0.24 - 62 0 0 24 6 40 1 13 34.1 60 87 -44 24 14 42 23 58 37 24 31 24 23 41 52 0.24 - 61 0 0 23 44 45 1 13 26.4 61 87 -45 23 52 49 23 36 40 24 9 36 23 19 51 0.24 - 60 0 0 23 22 6 1 13 18.7 62 86 -46 23 30 13 23 13 59 23 47 3 22 57 6 0.24 - 59 0 0 22 58 43 1 13 10.8 63 86 -47 23 6 52 22 50 34 23 23 47 22 33 36 0.24 - 58 0 0 22 34 35 1 13 2.8 63 85 -48 22 42 46 22 26 24 22 59 46 22 9 22 0.24 - 57 0 0 22 9 42 1 12 54.6 64 85 -49 22 17 56 22 1 29 22 35 0 21 44 22 0.24 - 56 0 0 21 44 4 1 12 46.4 65 84 -50 21 52 20 21 35 49 22 9 29 21 18 37 0.24 - 55 0 0 21 17 41 1 12 38.0 66 83 -51 21 25 59 21 9 23 21 43 13 20 52 6 0.24 - 54 0 0 20 50 31 1 12 29.5 67 82 -52 20 58 51 20 42 10 21 16 10 20 24 49 0.24 - 53 0 0 20 22 35 1 12 20.9 68 81 -52 20 30 58 20 14 12 20 48 22 19 56 45 0.24 - 52 0 0 19 53 53 1 12 12.2 69 80 -53 20 2 18 19 45 27 20 19 48 19 27 55 0.24 - 51 0 0 19 24 24 1 12 3.4 69 78 -54 19 32 52 19 15 56 19 50 26 18 58 18 0.24 - 50 0 0 18 54 8 1 11 54.4 70 77 -55 19 2 38 18 45 37 19 20 18 18 27 54 0.24 - 49 0 0 18 23 4 1 11 45.3 71 75 -56 18 31 37 18 14 31 18 49 23 17 56 42 0.24 - 48 0 0 17 51 13 1 11 36.2 72 73 -57 17 59 49 17 42 37 18 17 40 17 24 43 0.24 - 47 0 0 17 18 35 1 11 26.8 72 71 -58 17 27 13 17 9 56 17 45 10 16 51 56 0.24 - 46 0 0 16 45 8 1 11 17.4 73 69 -59 16 53 50 16 36 26 17 11 52 16 18 21 0.24 - 45 0 0 16 10 54 1 11 7.9 74 66 -60 16 19 38 16 2 9 16 37 47 15 43 57 0.24 - 44 0 0 15 35 51 1 10 58.3 74 63 -61 15 44 38 15 27 4 16 2 53 15 8 46 0.24 - 43 0 0 15 0 1 1 10 48.5 75 60 -62 15 8 51 14 51 11 15 27 11 14 32 47 0.24 - 42 0 0 14 23 22 1 10 38.7 75 56 -63 14 32 15 14 14 29 14 50 42 13 55 59 0.24 - 41 0 0 13 45 56 1 10 28.7 76 53 -64 13 54 52 13 36 59 14 13 24 13 18 23 0.24 - 40 0 0 13 7 41 1 10 18.7 76 49 -65 13 16 40 12 58 42 13 35 19 12 40 0 0.24 - 39 0 0 12 28 39 1 10 8.6 76 44 -66 12 37 41 12 19 37 12 56 26 12 0 48 0.24 - 38 0 0 11 48 49 1 9 58.3 76 40 -66 11 57 54 11 39 43 12 16 45 11 20 48 0.24 - 37 0 0 11 8 11 1 9 48.0 76 35 -67 11 17 19 10 59 3 11 36 17 10 40 2 0.24 - 36 0 0 10 26 47 1 9 37.6 76 31 -68 10 35 58 10 17 35 10 55 2 9 58 28 0.24 - 35 0 0 9 44 36 1 9 27.2 76 26 -69 9 53 50 9 35 21 10 13 0 9 16 7 0.24 - 34 0 0 9 1 38 1 9 16.6 76 22 -70 9 10 55 8 52 20 9 30 12 8 33 0 0.24 - 33 0 0 8 17 55 1 9 6.0 75 17 -71 8 27 15 8 8 34 8 46 38 7 49 7 0.25 - 32 0 0 7 33 26 1 8 55.4 75 13 -71 7 42 50 7 24 3 8 2 19 7 4 29 0.25 - 31 0 0 6 48 13 1 8 44.7 74 9 -72 6 57 40 6 38 47 7 17 16 6 19 6 0.25 - 30 0 0 6 2 17 1 8 33.9 74 6 -72 6 11 46 5 52 47 6 31 29 5 33 0 0.25 - 29 0 0 5 15 37 1 8 23.1 73 3 -73 5 25 10 5 6 4 5 44 58 4 46 11 0.25 - 28 0 0 4 28 15 1 8 12.3 72 360 -73 4 37 51 4 18 39 4 57 46 3 58 40 0.25 - 27 0 0 3 40 13 1 8 1.4 72 357 -74 3 49 51 3 30 34 4 9 53 3 10 28 0.25 - 26 0 0 2 51 30 1 7 50.6 71 354 -74 3 1 12 2 41 48 3 21 19 2 21 36 0.25 - 25 0 0 2 2 9 1 7 39.7 70 352 -74 2 11 53 1 52 24 2 32 7 1 32 6 0.25 - 24 0 0 1 12 10 1 7 28.9 69 350 -74 1 21 58 1 2 22 1 42 17 0 41 58 0.25 - 23 0 0 0 21 35 1 7 18.0 68 348 -74 0 31 26 0 11 44 0 51 51 - 0 8 46 0.25 - 22 0 0 - 0 29 34 1 7 7.2 67 346 -74 - 0 19 41 - 0 39 28 0 0 51 - 1 0 4 0.25 - 21 0 0 - 1 21 16 1 6 56.4 66 344 -74 - 1 11 20 - 1 31 13 - 0 50 43 - 1 51 55 0.25 - 20 0 0 - 2 13 30 1 6 45.7 65 343 -74 - 2 3 31 - 2 23 29 - 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Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs Prediction of 2023 Feb 15.9 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC4 561-047917 * constellation : Cancer * BCRS position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 08 53 24.1104 DE: +22 09 25.945 * GCRS Astrometric position with proper motion and parallax to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 08 53 24.1104 DE: +22 09 25.946 * position source: Gaia DR3 * standard error: RA,DE [mas]: (0.500,0.300) * V mag [mag]: 12.6 * B mag [mag]: 12.9 * Diameter [mas]: 0.00 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (2651) Karen asteroid class: approx. diameter [km]: 27 approx. diameter ["]: 0.021 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.76030 asteroid position offset in RA [mas]: 0 asteroid position offset in DE [mas]: 0 * orbital information: orbit source: JPL#51 date of fit: 2023 Feb 07 source of used astrometry: MPC, JPL number of used observations: 0 number of rejected observations: 0 time covered by the observations: 1800 Jan 01 - 1800 Jan 01 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.033", 0.003", 87.456° remarks: * orbital elements for (2651)Karen : Mean anomaly = 56.2520007995 deg Arg. of pericenter = 276.2813522618 deg Long. of node = 126.3287701182 deg Inclination = 17.7625153492 deg Eccentricity = 0.3248026372 Semimajor axis = 2.9858079504 AU Perihelion dist = 2.0160096538 AU Mag: H = 11.91, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 59990.04848354 TDT (2023 Feb 15.0485) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- JPL#512023Feb07,2.16,2023,2,15,1.163716,-0.146207,-0.185257,-5.519591,4.359503,0.001420,-0.000866,0.000001,0.000000 -28.5583,22.0693,166.07,-12.83,False UCAC4 561-047917,8.89003068,22.1572070,12.92,12.58,12.40,0.0,0,,8.91255730,22.0693426,3.26,3.01,0,0,0 2651,Karen,15.78,26.9,1.7603,0,0,-1.983,21.77,,1.6,0 0,56.0517,2023,2,14,276.2814,126.3288,17.7625,0.32480,2.98581,2.01601,11.91,5.0,0.15 2.039,0.0333,0.0029,87,0.0219,Known errors,3.74,-1,-1,-1 20230215_047917,59990.86 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2023 Feb 15, 20:36 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 stevepr@acm.org